“World's Most Complete Neighborpedia”
Explore:   What's happening in your neck of the woods?

Gary Bolen (CRS) Lake Tahoe Real Estate Information

Some Things We Hear when we Report South Lake Tahoe Market Conditions, and Why.

Comments that make us think: what if the market has already declined more than the numbers tell us?

(LAKE TAHOE REAL ESTATE BLOG) What is that old saying about statistics? We’ve heard it came from Vin Scully, the famous announcer and voice of the Brooklyn and then later Los Angeles Dodgers since 1950.

Maybe too Vin heard it from somebody else, the originator of the adage perhaps. Nonetheless, in this case it’s what was said, rather than who said it first that’s important.

We’re sure many of you have heard it, but the old adage about statistics is this: “There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.”


We frequently discuss the data we report here. There’s not a lie in the lot, but there are statistics, lots of them. And you can also be sure that anything we report that has a number in it is fact-based, and we can show it to you. There is no other way.

As we all know, though, there are many ways to look at data, particularly real estate data, where interpretation is often swayed by point of view rather than not. A Seller will interpret identical real estate information differently than a buyer. As we say in the article above this one (here), this is something we see all of the time.

Comments: (The Hue and Cry)
As most of our readers know, we track the median sold price in South Lake Tahoe over time. It is from the median sold price that comes our market reports for you (here).

When we publish these reports, usually any reader feedback we get either thanks us for our work or asks something about a particular listing. Recently though, we’ve heard the hue and cry below.

These are comments from only a few readers. They tell us something. and all are in response to the median sold price in South Lake Tahoe having stabilized since June of 2008 (here).

  • “The numbers are disingenuous!”
  • “South Lake Tahoe is an anomaly.”
  • “It’s an aberration.”
  • “The numbers are academic.”
  • “I’ll bet you lunch the market goes down another 20%.”


These are comments from buyers, potential buyers. We can tell every time. In general, a buyer’s interpretation of current South Lake Tahoe real estate market statistics these days is prices have not gone down far enough yet, and there is more reduction to come.

Conversely, and again there is no surprise, a Seller’s take on the same information goes something like this: “prices have come down, but not that much, and it doesn’t affect my house, and prices are going back up any minute now.”

The Buyer: A Successful One, or a Professional One?
There is a common denominator to be found in these comments. Their subtext is “I’m not buying until I see the bottom of the market.” This is understandable. It addresses the fundamental issue of all buyers in any real estate market, up or down, and it is “fear,” the fear of having paid too much.

These days the fear of paying too much, and how that applies to South Lake Tahoe in particular, is primarily fueled by predictions found in national real estate news... that do not apply in this market.

What these national reports predict is national home values may decline another 20% in value.

The key reason why this will not happen in South Lake Tahoe is predictions found in a recent broadside of national real estate reports can not be specifically applied to second-home resort markets.

If one does not accept that South Lake Tahoe market forces and price trends may be different than those of the country at large, this could well be the difference that separates the successful buyer from the professional buyer (this being the buyer who actually owns a piece of South Lake Tahoe, and one who is always looking, justifying, rationalizing, waiting, getting ready, knowing the market better than anybody and never does.)

A Deeper Point: (The “Us” Difference)

It’s possible some real estate folk could look at buyer comments like these above and deduct that they come from buyers who are not serious about buying. Those that from such conclusions normally ignore the comments altogether, discard them, and move on (discarding the buyer with the bathwater).

That’s unfortunate. It’s from comments like these where we have the opportunity to inform, explain, distinguish ourselves, earn trust and be both comforting and helpful at the same time. (They can also cause us to learn, which is what happened here. Lets call that the “us” difference.)

In a market like this, at this time, Is there a deeper meaning to the reactions of some buyers when they see current South Lake Tahoe real estate information?

What these comments say more than anything is “the numbers are different than what I thought they would be!”

We have two thoughts about this, and one great question:

One is that some buyers do not understand why South Lake Tahoe home values are what they are. What this tells us is one of two things, either a buyer does not want to understand it, or we have yet to explain it sufficiently.

This is why we are constantly honing, refining, adapting and repeating the message about South Lake Tahoe home values.

Second, and this thought is the kicker, our “eureka” moment! Maybe, just maybe, the median sold price reports are right (they are), and the buyers expectations of a lower number are right at the same time.

Maybe the decline that buyers are expecting is hiding in plain sight, and it is to be found in current listings, rather than only in past sales. What, is this double talk?

No, it isn’t. Lets ask this question, and it’s a great one, “if one can get 20% more house for the money now than before, and it’s true, then is this the 20% further decline that buyers are expecting?

If assumptions are correct, that one can get more house now, and we quantify that in terms of size, age, condition and price, we’re hoping this can become an additional resource for you, and all buyers, to better understand current trends in your South Lake Tahoe real estate market.

Three Things the South Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market Might Do.

(LAKE TAHOE REAL ESTATE BLOG) We did this one earlier too, after a boat load of questions about, well you know, "what do you think the market is going to do?"

(We'll call this our "duh" interlude here, its stating the obvious, but we're going somewhere with this one... to set up our next detailed study.)

There are basically three avenues the South Lake Tahoe real estate market will take in the foreseeable future. The numbers tell us we’re close to stabilization. Like that or not, it’s what the numbers, using median sold price, looking behind us over six months, say.

Is it possible we will see further home value decline? Certainly, but we are not picking up statistical evidence of that presently (here). We do have a good question coming, though, about the possibility that more decline is already here, hiding in plain sight.

Our foreclosure study indicates, it should be noted, there has actually been less decline in South Lake Tahoe home values than was originally thought (here). What this data shows is the importance of isolating the effect of foreclosed home sales out of the rest of the South Lake Tahoe market.

Is it possible the market will go up? This too is possible, anything is, but this is about as unlikely, for example, that the South Lake Tahoe real estate market will follow prognostications in the slew of national real estate reports earlier this month of 20% further declines in the median sold price.

Accurate Real Estate Reporting... is important in South Lake Tahoe too!

What another RE Professional Has to Say about Our Favorite Subject.

(LAKE TAHOE REAL ESTATE BLOG) I don't know how may times we've reported about the importance of providing accurate real estate data here on this blog. It's certainly one of our most discussed themes.

We found this in one of our feeds from the Huffington Post not long ago and thought you might appreciate it.

Entitled, "Quality Reporting Is Key When Writing About The Housing Market", it's written by Pauline Millard, a New York City real estate professional and a teacher of creative writing.

Though New York City real estate is vastly different than that of our South Lake Tahoe market, Pauline hits many of the same concepts we painstaking provide, and routinely report to you. We hope you enjoy.

A Discussion with a South Lake Tahoe, CA reader

Its Always Fun When We Hear From a reader about South Lake Tahoe.

(LAKE TAHOE REAL ESTATE BLOG) We got this email from one of our readers this some time ago. It's a good example of both how our blog attracts readers who participate, and our interactions with them. We thought it might be nice to share it with you.

Below is what came to us. Our response to it follows thereafter. We hope you find it of interest.


From: John
Sent: Not too long ago
To: richard@thelistingcompany.com; gary@thelistingcompany.com
Subject: Tahoe Real Estate

Rich / Gary,

I've been watching Tahoe real estate for some years (since the 70's, when I lived and worked in SLT). I really like your blog and keep in on my RSS feed. Very helpful. We're approaching retirement age and will probably buy a 2nd home up there when the market finds its bottom.

Today you note: "And prices, while some $35,000 lower on average than they were last year at this time, appear to be near bottom."

As I try to understand how we got ourselves into this financial mess, I'm becoming less convinced that we are "near bottom."

Just today the NY Times reported:

...the median prices for houses posted their steepest monthly drop in four decades, according to reports released Tuesday.

Sales of existing homes declined 8.6 percent last month, to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.49 million, according to the National Association of Realtors. The median price of a home plunged 13 percent from October to November, to $181,300 from $208,000 a year ago. That was the lowest price since February 2004.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, said that 45 percent of all home sales were so-called “distressed sales,” meaning that the sellers faced foreclosure, or they were forced to sell their home for less than the value of the mortgage.

The numbers released Tuesday show that the housing market, which is at the center of America’s financial crisis, is displaying no signs of a quick recovery.

“They’re about as god-awful as they can get,” said Robert Barbera, chief economist at ITG. “This is pretty breathtaking stuff.”

The Commerce Department also reported that new home sales dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 407,000 in November, from a downwardly revised rate of 419,000 in October.

Housing values have plummeted since the peak of the market in July 2006, when the median home price in America was $230,200.

But the housing bubble burst, sales declined, credit dried up and a flood of foreclosed homes hit the market, a toxic combination of events which pulled median prices down 21 percent to their November levels.

“It’s probably the largest price drop since the Great Depression,” Mr. Yun said. “There needs to be some measure to counter this pessimism. Without housing market stabilization, it’ll be very difficult for the economy to recover.”

I'm an eternal optimist, but I gotta say - I don't think we're anywhere near the bottom. There are no fundamentals in place to propel a housing/economic turnaround, or indicate a bottom. Over HALF of all Las Vegas homes are now worth less than their mortgage value (!). I've learned that Tahoe trends tend to amplify the national markets. When the national markets heat up, Tahoe explodes. When the markets slow, Tahoe gets even slower - recall the early-mid 90s when some SLT values dropped nearly 40% from their prior highs. I'm surprised that Tahoe continues to do as well as it has in recent months. But I think this is an aberration, and I think we're going to see another 15 to 20% drop in SLT values over the next couple years. In fact, I'll bet you lunch on it.

Keep up the excellent statistical work.
--

John,
Thanks much for the good words...
With regard to your music bg, are you aware of ours? That's a great teaser to talk further, or meet some time...
Read the New York Times article you cite below about 6am this morning... (its that NY Times app on our iPhone... can't put it down!)
Truth is SLT is different; a destination resort with real estate values driven by second home buyers; it does not fluctuate as much as the national numbers; it never does, which makes sense. RE numbers in national reports includes resorts, but it is not "of" resorts.
Incidentially, second home buyers make up for about 65% of our homeowners. Characteristically they are overqualified financially, in their '50's, are empty nesters and lack urgency when buying. Primarily they are buying "lifestyle", where investment sense is important, but nevertheless a subset of an emotional, life affirming choice.
As such, resort "dirt" is normally of greater value when compared to the "dirt" that homes in general sit on throughout the rest of the country. Add into that a market where supply is seriously controlled by federally mandated environmental growth restrictions, that is a winter-summer season destination, and one has a situation, a real estate-trend anomaly if you will, where relevant comparisons to any other real estate markets are very few.
It's also important to point out that principal to the national decline in home values are distressed home sales: foreclosures and short sales. The article you mention here indicates that 45% of all home sales in November were distressed sales.
Yes foreclosed, bank owned properties are fundamentally at the root of national home value declines, but here in SLT, CA we have less than half the national average of that kind of activity, and on the NV side of the SLT real estate market there is significantly less than that.
The fact that we are less affected by foreclosue-drain on home values, again, is due to SLT being a resort, second home market with a greater percentage of financially solvent homeowners than the country at large.
At last check, less than 25% of homes sold in SLT this year were in foreclosure. Most are at the entry segment of our market, many have been undervalued by banks wanting nothing more than to "move them off their books", and as such they are contributive to what declines in values we have seen.
The median sold price today is what it is: $390,000. It has repeated said same for at least a quarter now.
The national median sold price as found in the article is $220,400, or some 43.4% less than that of South Lake Tahoe, CA. (This, perhaps as much as, or more than anything else, affirmms that the market up here is different.)
Since Memorial Day, the SLT, CA median sold prices have been:
Jun 17: $388,000
Aug 26: $379,500
Oct 15: $390,000
Nov 11: $390,000
It was $379,500 on August 26th. Truth is it has gone up $10K since then, as has demand. (I couldn't believe it myself, and crunched those numbers time and time again trying to prove them wrong.)
Our market high was a median sold price of $460,000 in 2006. This is a decline in general value of $60,000, or 15.2%.
With regard to your "lunch bet", we are not in the business of predicting where the market will be in two years. We think, and the general consensus throughout the real estate community up here is we'll be past where we are now by then.
That is anyone's guess, however. If your assumptions are correct, that would mean a median price of about $300K. Slightly less than where we were in 2003.
Personally, as professional agents, we have no cling to whereever the market might be, other than reporting it truthfully. The market is not bad, nor is it good, it is just what it is.
What we do know is there is great value, and opportunity in the market at present, which is now coupled with a meaningful interest rate that is becoming more of an incentive with each passing month. This is evidenced by the increases recently seen in the number of monthly sales since October.
As for what the market did in the '90s, lets look at this: in SLT, CA since the 1970s, each decade has been marked by a plateau, or flat period of some 6 to 8 years where home values changed very little. Much of the early 90's was one of these flat periods.
You may have seen a 40% decline in the early to mid 90's, I wasn't here, but our managment who was did not see nor experience said same, so they say.
There have been only two prior declines in SLT value: the one in 1980 or so (about a third), and the one now (which is about half what the decline was in the early '80s). http://www.laketahoerealestateblog.com/?p=638
Thanks again for taking the time to chat w us, and we're available anytime for further market... or music talk.
richard

A South Lake Tahoe Buyer Talks

We make South Lake Tahoe buyers happy.What our South Lake Tahoe real estate business is all about.

(Lake Tahoe Real Estate Blog) We've been working with a particular buyer recently. It's someone we know who has bought from us before, but that was back in 2004 at the top of the South Lake Tahoe market both in terms of demand and price.

The Buyer contacted us again in September. What's somewhat singular about him is he lives in Jakarta. This time his instructions to us were rather simple: "I know the market is down, there's opportunity to be had, now find me the best deal possible to be had."

We started showing him homes just before Halloween. We spent 10 days with him and his family doing "research." That done, he went back to Indonesia, and as you can imagine the emails that followed were plentiful and informative.

He recently came back to look again last week. And look he did.

We just put the house he bought into escrow, and we'll tell you more about it when it closes, but it was not one of the houses he saw the first time around. More than suspicious that this was "the one", we showed it to him via email about a week before he got here to look the second time.

Now back in Jakarta, he just sent an email to us that we thought we'd share. It much addresses our approach to doing business, where making friends and being helpful is so much more our focus than just making a sale and getting paid. It's teamwork that always makes the difference. Here's that email, it's short, sweet and very simple, and we hope you enjoy:

Dear Gary and Richard,

I think we make a great team! We accomplished exactly what we set out to do. Amazing house. The best we saw. I am so excited and happy about this. And we will do more together, that's for sure. Thank you Richard and Gary.

Very truly,
Andy