James Bowen

Today's market is set to open lower as the first of several reports today and this week is out and is much worse than predictions. The Commerce departments report on December retail sales shows the worst numbers since 1969. Sales were down more than 2 times expectations- -2.7% compared to -1.2% predictions. This is the first year that OVERALL yearly sales showed a negative. Other reports due out today include a report on Business inventories and the Fed Beige Book report highlighting regional activity. These reports will set the stage for many more earnings reports due this week and next with the banking sector leading the way. JP Morgan is set to release figures tomorrow, a week ahead of schedule. Banking results are the big news for the day and week as Global results are also coming out and they are not good. Deutche Bank has reported a 4th quarter loss of over 6 billion and Commerzbank is now 25% owned by the german Government. The Royal bank of Scotland is now majority held by Britain and HSBC is looking to raise over 20 billion and will cut it's dividend in half as it's capital has dwindled more than expected. So, is Citi the next bank to be Nationalized?

The TNOTE Yield is reflecting the uneasy sentiment starting the new year. It has dropped to open the morning near 2.27%, down from yesterday's close of 2.297%. Rates changed several times yesterday in response to the market which was up and down before settling down slightly. I anticipate that today will follow suit but with wider swings. Yesterdays rates still held near 4.75, but trended closer to 4.875%. I see pricing coming back down as more investors lean to government notes as opposed to the weak, unstable market offerings. If this trend continues, rates may come close 4.5% by the end of the month. Of course, this is my opinion, but the rate market reached that level and below just a couple weeks ago and I wouldn't bet against the same occurring in the upcoming weeks.

THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONWIDE MORTGAGE CO. ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL REGARDING YOUR OWN TRANSACTION

If World Markets are an indication of what is ahead for the US markets today, expect another sell off ahead of more earnings reports throughout the week. After the Market closed yesterday, ALCOA reported a larger than expected loss and it's shares dropped over 1.5% pre-open this morning. World Markets are down about the same percentage with Japan's Market leading the way at about 5%. Citi concerns will continue today, and shows just how interconnected all Global Markets really are. Analysts have changed the outlook for Large Financial institutions, now upping predictions for 4th quarter losses as well as lowering income projections for all of 2009.

The 10 Year t-note is opening slightly higher than it closed (up about .01%), but I would think this will begin to trend the other way after the opening bell as traders seek safer bets in the wake of the weeks earnings barrage.

I found this article to be interesting when I read it this morning. These are the top 5 areas for retention of property values. Two of these markets are right here in my back yard in Western/Central NY.

5 Strongest U.S. Housing Markets, by Metro Area

by Deborah Orr
Friday, January 9, 2009 provided by

McAllen, Texas
Population: 784,900
Bottom expected: N/A
Forecast price change to bottom: 0%

Syracuse, N.Y.
Population: 647,200
Bottom expected: N/A
Forecast price change to bottom: 0%

Pittsburgh, Pa.
Population: 2,346,800
Bottom expected: end 2009
Forecast price change to bottom: -0.3%

Buffalo, N.Y.
Population: 1,118,100
Bottom expected: mid-2010
Forecast price change to bottom: -1.0%

El Paso, Texas
Population: 795,800
Bottom expected: mid-2010
Forecast price change to bottom: -1.0%

So, while news is pretty glum these days, realtors in these markets should be counting their blessings and should be looking for ways to satisfy buyers and sellers in these areas. It has never been a better time is these markets.

I look forward to hearing from any real estate professional in these areas. I am here to help you sell homes. While bank lending may still be a tough go, having a mortgage professional with access to all possible products can help you through the financing arena. That is my pledge to you.

THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONWIDE MORTGAGE CO. ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL REGARDING YOUR OWN TRANSACTION

Expect very changeable market conditions this week. This is really the 1st true trading week since the Holiday season and is the beginning of the release of 4th quarter Corporate earnings reports. With that being said, world markets and now US markets are trading very cautiously as these reports are awaited. It is pretty much a given that the results will be poor as many companies have already sent warnings that initial numbers would not be met.

Other news being digested this week includes the possible merger of Citi's Smith Barney with the Morgan Stanley business highlighting what could become another very busy merger year for institutions on the bubble. Today's open is mirroring Friday's decline. Friday's losses were related to the governments report showing unemployment up to 7.2% and this has carried into Monday's market. Wednesday will feature the Feds Beige Book report which shows economic activity by region across the country. These reports are not expected to be favorable based on all preliminary indications. The Senate may vote this week on President elect Obama's stimulus package which may draw resistance and require additional scrutiny before passing. Oil has fallen back after a couple weeks of increases. The expected profit woes on Company balance sheets has once again driven down consumption predictions and even the Middle East and Russian/Ukraine issues are not providing an upward catalyst for OIL pricing.

The yield on the 10 yr TNOTE which provides a basis for 30 year mortgage pricing has dropped off after opening 2/100's of a point higher than Friday's close. It is now down to 2.38% from a high of 2.43% earlier in the day. This should equate to minor price changes later in the day if this trend holds.

Current 30 year Mortgage pricing is roughly 4.875%.

I never like hearing news like this. But I am posting this in hopes that I may be able to offer an opportunity to some of these mortgage professionals.

My Rate/Watch blog will be back. I've had a lot going on lately, but I am dedicated to getting it started again next week. Rates are still under 5% but have been creeping back up over the past few days. The upcoming week will be more of a rate determinant, as the Hoilday hangover will be burnt off by them......

1st Metropolitan Originators-CALL ME TODAY

I urge any 1st Metropolitan originators who have been affected by the recent announced closing of the majority of the origination shops nationwide to CALL ME TODAY. EAGLE NATIONWIDE MORTGAGE IS A SUBSIDIARY OF EAGLE NATIONAL BANK-A FEDERALLY CHARTERED NATIONAL BANK AND CAN ORIGINATE IN ALL 50 STATES.
AS AN ORIGINATOR THERE IS NO LICENSING.YOU ARE A BANK EMPLOYEE.THERE ARE ALSO NO CONTINUING EDUCATION REQUIREMENTS .
Eagle Nationwide Mortgage is FHA Full Eagle, VA approved, and offers all lending options through many lender partners.
Eagle also offers a Benefits package once your volume meets requirements. You would be termed an outside sales consultant and would be set up with Free IT, etc. so your office would "virtually" be your home.

CALL ME TODAY!!
James Bowen
Eagle Nationwide Mortgage Co.
my cell# 315-398-9400

The Federal reserve board gave investors an early Christmas present today, dropping the key lending rate to a RECORD level, never seen since it's inception. October's drop to 1% was thought to be unheard of, and today's drop was EXPECTED to be 1/2 point , down to .5%. However, the FED was much more aggressive in an attempt to jump start Bank lending and dropped the rate by .75% (actually it may translate higher) to between 0.00 -.25%. This is great news for all consumer loans and credit lines tied to this key rate. Wells Fargo also dropped their PRIME rate to 3.25% and other Major players are expected to do the same. After the Fed announcement, the yield on the 10 year note which drives 30 year mortgage rates plunged .17% down to 2.36%, which lowered 30 year pricing by roughly 1/4 point. Rates on fixed 30 year terms are now at roughly 4.75% and I expect another drop tomorrow. It won't be long before we see 4.50%. The governments intervention is finally beginning to kick in. I hope that this allows some folks who were waiting for a bottom to get out there and feel more comfortable to engage in a mortgage transaction. We are at record levels and this is just what America needs to be able to begin to reverse the trend of the past several months.

THIS IS MY OPOINION ONLY AND NOT THAT OF EAGLE NATIONWIDE MORTGAGE CO. ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL REGARDING YOUR OWN TRANSACTION