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Ryan Shaughnessy, Broker/Attorney - Your Lafayette Square Real Estate Partner

2009 Market Report Update - New Construction Housing Starts in St. Louis (City), Missouri

10 YEAR STATISTICS - ST. LOUIS CITY HOUSING STARTS 2000 TO 2009:

Year Type Total - Single Family % Change - SF Total - Multi-Family % Change - MF Total Permits % Change - Total
2000 New 149 239 388
2001 New 126 -15.43% 247 3.34% 373 -3.86%
2002 New 138 9.52% 302 22.26% 440 17.96%
2003 New 161 16.66% 950 214.56% 1111 152.50%
2004 New 169 4.96% 371 -60.94% 540 -51.39%
2005 New 393 132.54% 770 107.54% 1163 115.37%
2006 New 329 -16.28% 144 -81.29% 473 -59.32%
2007 New 237 -27.96% 272 88.88% 509 7.61%
2008 New 129 -45.56% 217 -20.22% 346 -32.02%
2009 New 45 -65.11% 119 -45.16% 164 -52.60%
2000 Rehab 143 1050 1193
2001 Rehab 196 37.06% 2165 106.19% 2361 97.90%
2002 Rehab 134 -31.63% 1673 -22.72% 1807 -23.46%
2003 Rehab 248 85.07% 1974 17.99% 2222 22.96%
2004 Rehab 168 -32.25% 2303 16.66% 2471 11.20%
2005 Rehab 280 66.66% 5872 154.97% 6162 149.37%
2006 Rehab 253 -9.64% 3710 -38.81% 3963 -35.68%
2007 Rehab 242 -4.34% 2349 -36.68% 2591 -34.62%
2008 Rehab 156 -35.53% 1279 -45.55% 1435 -44.61%
2009 Rehab 89 -42.94% 658 -48.55% 747 -47.94%

EXPLANATION OF STATISTICAL REPORTS:

The City of St. Louis issues two types of permits for new construction. The "new construction" permits are for new buildings constructed from the ground up. The "rehab" permits are for the complete or gut rehabilitation of existing structures, including such housing starts as condo conversion projects, conversion of multi-family flats to single family, etc. For the purposes of the data, single family includes attached townhomes and multi-family includes condominiums and multi-family projects like apartments.

Housing Starts - St. Louis City - 10 year Statistics

Housing Starts - St. Louis City - 10 year Statistics

Housing Starts - St. Louis City - 10 year Statistics

Housing Starts - St. Louis City - 10 year Statistics

Commentary:

The graphs tell a remarkable story. The City of St. Louis has experienced a renaissance that has saved some of its great historic buildings by converting local landmarks from industrial, commercial or other institutional uses into residential apartments and condominiums. Here are some of the many problems with drawing broad conclusions based on these statistics:

  • No Data on End Use: It is difficult to easily track the end use for any permit. For example, a multi-family permit may relate to a for sale condominium or a for rent apartment or even a unit originally intended as for sale and now rented.
  • No Breakdowns Based on Neighborhood: Housing values vary by neighborhood. The permits are not grouped by neighborhood or zip code. As a result, overbuilding in certain sub-markets could depress sales prices and rental rates in that submarket and have limited or no impact on other submarkets.
  • No Breakdown on Delivery Dates: The housing permits reflect the dates that the permits were issued and not the dates when the permits were closed out. As a result, the units in large multi-family projects are grouped in a single year even though construction of the units occurred over an 12-24 month period, and the sale of the units occured over multiple years.

However, notwithstanding the limitations in the data, it is pretty clear that some neighborhoods were overbuilt. The overbuilding of certain neighborhoods often had a 4-stage impact on the submarket:

  • Reduction in sales transactions.
  • Downward pressure on sales prices as developers reduced prices.
  • Conversion of projects from for sale projects to projects including rentals.
  • Downward pressure on rental rates as residential rental inventory increased.

Again, I would caution from drawing any broad conclusions as this phenomen varied greatly based on the strength of the neighborhoods and submarkets. For example, Lafayette Square saw a decrease in volume, but did not experience any decrease in median or average sales prices and, in fact, saw increases in median and average sales prices in 2008.

If you are a developer, lender, resale owner, or purchaser interested in the purchase, sale or rental of a newly constructed single family home, townhome, condominium or loft in the City of St. Louis and desire experienced representation, contact Ryan Shaughnessy at PREA Signature Realty at 314-971-4381.

Data Sources: Home Builders Association of St. Louis and Eastern Missouri and the City of St. Louis Building Division.

2009 Market Report Update - Condos for Sale in St. Louis (City), Missouri

10 YEAR CONDO MARKET STATISTICS - ST. LOUIS CITY, MISSOURI:

Year # of Sales % Change Average % Change Median % Change Total Volume % Change
2000 250 $127,766 $107,500 $31,691,380
2001 270 8% $160,414 25.55% $135,000 25.58% $43,311,801 36.66%
2002 284 5.18% $164,535 2.56% $148,156 9.74% $46,727,659 7.88%
2003 423 48.94% $177,695 7.99% $164,000 10.69% $75,164,954 60.85%
2004 450 6.38% $180,894 1.80% $166,250 1.37% $81,402,214 8.29%
2005 548 66.89% $212,477 17.45% $185,000 11.27% $116,437,598 43.03%
2006 751 37.04% $227,581 7.10% $203,400 9.94% $170,913,557 46.78%
2007 743 -1.06% $239,477 5.22% $191,900 -5.65% $177,931,051 4.10%
2008 468 -37.01% $224,812 -6.12% $179,000 -6.72% $105,212,164 -40.86%
2009 380 -18.80% $212,880 -5.30% $172,250 -3.77% $80,894,405 -23.11%
Avg. 456.7 13% $192,853 6.25% $165,246 5.83% $92,968,678 15.96%

St Louis City - Condo Market - 10 yr. Avg Sales Price

St Louis City - Condo Market - 10 yr. Median Sales Price Graph

Commentary on 2009 City Condo Market:

The 2009 condo market statistics include only sales closed through the 3rd Quarter of 2009 and do not reflect any pending or contingent sales. Currently, there are 106 pending or contingent condo sales totaling over $43,500,000 in sales. In addition, there are favorable sales trends in the $100-200,000 price range which will likely accelerate as the first-time home buyers continue to purchase homes in anticipation of the expiration of the federal tax credit on December 1, 2009. Based on current projections, it appears that the 2009 sales figures will reflect an increase in sales volume - both by dollar and by number of transations - with a slight decrease in the average days on market. In addition, it appears that average sales prices and median sales prices based on pending and contingent sales will rise slightly over 2008 figures.

Currently, condo inventories are generally declining with fewer new construction units coming on or remaining on the market. Notwithstanding the decline in inventory, there remains an oversupply of condos on the market with 577 active listings and absorption rates over 24 months. Given the current market conditions, location, aggressive pricing, and condition/finishes continue to be major factors in selling one's condominium. If you are a condo owner interested in selling a condo for a price below $180,000, there is a narrow window of opportunity as first time home buyers finalize purchase decisions to take advantage of low interest rate and the federal tax credits.

Interested in selling your loft, townhome or condominium in the City of St. Louis? Contact Ryan Shaughnessy at PREA Signature Realty at 314-971-4381 to obtain a copy of the complete 2009 Condo Market Report and/or to schedule a free listing consultation.

Missouri Women's Council of Realtors - 2010 Officer Installation Dinner - September 29, 2009

Congratulation to Barbara Keathley on her election as the 2010 President of the Missouri Women's Council of Realtors.  The 2010 WCR Officer Installation Dinner is scheduled for September 29, 2009, at the Tan Tara Resort at the Lake of the Ozarks.  For more information, click on WCR Reception/Inaugral Dinner.

If you aren't currently a member of the Missouri Women's Council of Realtors, the video below gives just a few of the many reasons to join the Missouri Women's Council of Realtors.

++++ PROVIDED COURTESY OF PREA SIGNATURE REALTY ++++

Blogging Success Story - This Townhome in the Central West End Sold in 72 Hours for 99% of List Price

4127 Westminster - Gaslight Square - Sold FastLooking to sell a condominium or townhome for sale in the Gaslight Square neighborhood of the Central West End?

PREA Signature Realty just LISTED and SOLD this townhome at 4127 Westminster Place in the Gaslight Square neighborhood of the Central West End in 72 hours for 99% of the list price. So, how did it sell so fast? It was a combination of an aggressive pricing strategy, use of video and social networks to market the property, and use of our database to get the word out.

PRICING STRATEGY: To start the process, we searched the MLS for active listings, pending sales, closed sales and expired listings. We used the closed sales as a guide to the price range. We then used the other active listings to position our sale in the range. Contrary to poplular practice, we didn't simply let the seller set an optimistic price on the hope and belief that someone would fall in love with the property and make an offer. We positioned the price of the listing $4,000 and $13,000 respectively under other properties listed for sale in the same development. Here are some of the facts and figures:

COMPARISON

AVG. SQ. FT.

DOM

AVG. SALE PRICE

AVG. PRICE / SQ.FT.

CONDO SALES-12 MOS. HISTORY-1/4 Mile Radius

1241

159

$179,382

$144

WESTMINSTER TOWNHOMES - 12 MOS. HISTORY

1472

363

$178,000

$121

WESTMINSTER TOWNHOMES - AVAILABLE

1254

52

$189,000

$151

4127 Westminster

1216

3

$179,000

$148

Now, there are two important things to notice here. Pricing the property results in a quick sale - this property sold after 3 days on market. Similarly, it garnered immediate interest from multiple parties based on the value proposition created by pricing the property below the other 2 active listings in the neighborhood. The interest garnered resulted in a substantially shorter number of days on market and a sales price that was above average both in terms of the neighborhood and the specific development.

HARNESSING THE POWER OF THE INTERNET AND SOCIAL NETWORKS: Now, others may disagree. However, we have found that the internet, social networks and e-Blasts get the word out quickly about properties we have listed for sale. So, in this case, we moved quickly to get information about the listing out to the public, prior customers, prospects and members of our sphere of influence. Here is the timeline:

  • Listing Agreement was signed on September 21, 2009 at 6 p.m.
  • Video presentation was prepared and uploaded to YouTube.com on September 21, 2009 at 10 p.m. and sent out via Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn and 40 other social networks.
  • Blog post was uploaded to ActiveRain.com on September 22, 2009, at 12:30 a.m. and sent out via Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn.
  • E-mail was sent to database of 1700 prospects on September 22, 2009, at 1:00 a.m.
  • Property was entered into MLS on September 22, 2009, at 2 a.m.
  • Tweetlister posted property on Twitter.com on September 22, 2009 at 4 a.m.

In less than 12 hours, we already had 4 showings scheduled for the property. However, it is interesting where the listing was actually viewed.

  • MLS: 8 Public Views / 39 Agent Views
  • Point2Agent: 87 Public Views
  • Company Website: 25 Views
  • Craigslist: Unknown Views
  • Backpage: Unknown Views
  • YouTube: 49 Views
  • ActiveRain: 85 Views
  • Twitter: 42 Views
  • Tweetlister: 25 Views
  • Facebook: 11 Views
  • LinkedIn: 42 Views
  • E-Blast: 62 Views
  • Hot Sheet E-Blast: 43 Views

Putting it in another perspective, here is a source of views by type of medium:

  • Websites - 159 Views
  • Social Networks - 127 Views
  • E-Mails - 105 Views

So, in this case, I can't say the blogging and social networks are the best tools for selling homes. However, I can say that this listing had good and immediate exposure to the public based on the use of our blogs and social networks. 3 of the first 4 showings were generated through Twitter, ActiveRain, and our YouTube channel. Only 1 of the 4 showings was from the MLS. Interestingly, the purchasers first viewed the property on ActiveRain and YouTube before it even appeared in their private MLS portal search.

MESSAGE TO THOSE AGENTS SKEPTICAL OF BLOGGING AND SOCIAL NETWORKS

Now, I am not going to say that blogs and social networks sell homes. Without a good marketing plan, an aggressive pricing strategy and a bit of hardwork, I doubt that a home will sell quickly or at a premium price with or without the use of blogs and social networks. However, I can say that social networking, blogging, YouTube videos and e-blasts each contributed to this sale and are additional tools to be used in marketing a home for sale. In the past year, this is the fourth sale that was driven by or at least received an assist from a post to ActiveRain that was then disseminated via Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook and other social networking sites.

Interested in selling your townhome or condominium in St. Louis with a brokerage commited to harnessing the power of the internet and social networks to maximize the sales price for your home and minimize the days on market? Contact Ryan Shaughnessy at PREA Signature Realty at 314-971-4381.

Call to Action for Missouri Realtors

Missouri Association of Realtors President T. David Rogers issues call to action to Missouri Realtors to support current fundraising events for RPAC to raise funds for lobbying on issues of importance to real estate professionals. Mr. Rogers specifically cites the need to monitor and develop grassroots opposition to future proposals for a 1% transfer tax. In the current market, owner/sellers, purchasers and real estate professionals can ill afford to pay a transfer tax on the sale of real estate. For example, for the sale of a $200,000.00, it means that one party to the transaction would be forced to pay tax on the sale of $2,000.00 thereby artificially inflating prices, reducing the volume of sales, and increasing the number of short sales.

Here is the video from Mr. Rogers:

Interested in learning more about RPAC and its legislative agenda? Visit the Missouri Association of Realtors website.