Gary LaBelle

Tahoe Donner Homes - Single Family Home Sales – March 2011

The following Figure shows Tahoe Donner Single Family Home activity from Jan 2008 through March 2011.

The data is obtained from the Tahoe MLS published data. Note, this data is for single family homes only – contact me for data on Tahoe Donner Condos or data for other Truckee areas.

Tahoe Donner is a great area to study for market activity since it is has over 5000 homes and therefore presents a large database for meaningful statistical analysis. Home prices vary from roughly $300K to over $1.5M and ages range from over 30 years old to brand new.

When trying to interpret change in prices over the last few years several factors should be considered instead of just dividing the monthly total homes sales gross $ total by the number of units sold and saying prices are down by x % - doing so is not giving buyers and sellers a true picture of the market. A couple of major considerations are that higher priced new home construction is obviously way down in the Truckee area (except for Martis Camp) and until 2010, lenders had been making it very difficult to obtain Jumbo loans required for higher priced homes – requiring cash only purchases in the past year or so which could have adversely affected the number of larger homes sold. Another very significant factor is the increasing amount of distressed home sales (Short Sales and REO’s). REO’s especially tend to be sold in generally poor condition which significantly lowers the market value.

Tahoe Donner Single Family Home Closings

Tahoe Donner Homes - Closings

Single Family home closings in March ’11 were 20 homes (another source says 21), up from 13 last month. Note that sales in Tahoe Donner are extremely seasonal and year to year comparisons are significant to get a valid picture of typical sales activity. Looking at the above graph March sales this year are up significantly from the last two years – great news!

Tahoe Donner Homes – Inventory

The number of Single Family listings was 80 listings at the end of Mar. When you consider we have approximately 5000 single family homes in Tahoe Donner inventory continues to be low - 1.6% of the homes in TD. This low inventory is obviously a positive sign for the continued good health of the Tahoe Donner Market and could lead to higher home pricing.

Tahoe Donner Homes – Days on Market (DOM)

Average Days on market (DOM) were 108 days, up from 105 last month and down from175 days the month before. Looking at the above graph, 108 days is close to the average which is 80-100 days or so. As mentioned last month, I think the slightly higher DOM is due to low inventory resulting in sales of homes that have been on the market for an extended period.

Tahoe Donner - New Home Sales & Lot Sales

Regarding new home sales, there were 3 new home sales last month. We have seen a slowdown in buildable lot sales but expect this to pick up as we approach spring. The low inventory of saleable homes is obviously a good sign for builders and may spark lot sales in the spring and summer of this year.

Tahoe Donner Homes - Average and Median Prices

Average and median prices increased a bit this month to $551 and $517K.

Since we are getting some recent new home activity and financing has loosened up a bit and with the low inventory, one can expect that non-distressed home prices should not see much additional downward pressure in 2011. This is another good sign of a strong market because prices tend to be holding in even without a significant number of more expensive new homes coming on the market. For sellers, the low inventory is great and for buyers don’t be too hopeful that prices will drop if you wait. With this low inventory it’s a good bet that prices will stabilize and possibly increase like they did last month.

Sold to Ask Price

The sold to last listing price for Jan was 95%. February sold to last listed price was 96%. March was also 96%.

So, when you are buying or selling keep this average number in mind.

Price per Sq Ft

The average price per square foot for January was $259. February average price per sq ft was $243. March came in at $251 $/sq ft.

March was interesting in that 3 brand new homes sold for $278, $270 and $327 per sq ft and 3 REO’s sold for $111, $167 and $242 per sq ft. There was also 1 Court Approved sale for $343 per sq ft.

The net-net is that the average price per sq ft didn’t change that much from Jan. to March.

I hope this data, presented in this form was useful to you. MLS data is available and I encourage the buyer or seller to study the data and arrive at their own conclusions before making a buy or sell decision. Contact me if you would like to see the “raw” data.

Gary LaBelle
glabelle@chaseinternational.com www.TruckeeHome411.com
(530) 448-1100 cell
Chase International
The Leader in Luxury Real Estate 10164 Donner Pass Rd, Suite 3 Truckee, California 96161

The following Figure shows Tahoe Donner Single Family Home activity from Jan 2008 through June ‘10.

Figure 1. Tahoe Donner Single Family Home Sales – Note seasonality of sales

Single Family home sales in May ’10 continue to outpace the last 2 year’s sales for May. This is significant since sales in Tahoe Donner are extremely seasonal. The net-net is that for a true picture of the market activity one must look at seasonality throughout the year. So, based on seasonality one can expect that sales will continue to rise the rest of 2010 as we get into the fall season.

Inventory (# of SF listings) picked up from 120 to 152. As mentioned in the last couple months report the inventory has grown as the Ski Lease properties became available and some of these have been listed.

Inventory is still low at 152 homes on the market, up from 120 last month. When you consider we have over 5100 homes in Tahoe Donner this is approximately 3 % of the homes in TD. Based on historical data we could expect that the inventory has peaked and will fall off a bit as we get into the fall selling season.

Average Days on market (DOM) decreased significantly to 64 from 100 days – which looking at the above graph is lower for June of ’08 and ’09.

Single family home sales were 15 homes, the same as last month. As mentioned previously, based on seasonality data for the last couple years we can expect to see home sales rising through the summer and fall. I would expect to see the home builders start to come out of hibernation due to the low inventory. A consequence of this is that demand for buildable lots should show some life as we enter the summer building season.

Figure 2. Tahoe Donner Single Family Home Median and Average Home Price

One important change that started in Jan of ’09 is that Average and Median prices had a significant downturn – see Figure 2. However, one can see that the average and median prices are picking up a bit since Jul of ‘09. This is a good trend and could be construed as a sign that the Tahoe Donner single family home market is healthy.

One factor that affects this price curve is that we have a dearth of high end new home construction activity in Tahoe Donner. This will tend to keep single family (SF) home pricing a bit lower until we get some additional high end construction activity and new homes for sale.

I hope this data, presented in this form was useful to you. For an instant update, or a discussion about condos/townhomes, please call me and I’ll be pleased to provide you with the most recent data available. MLS data is available and I encourage the buyer or seller to study the data and arrive at their own conclusions before making a buy or sell decision. Contact me if you would like to see the “raw” data. I also have sold price vs. listed price data – this is very helpful if you are considering selling or buying a home – call me for a copy of this data.

Gary LaBelle, Realtor

www.truckeehome411.com

TruckeeRealEstate@Gmail.com

(530) 448-1100

DRE #01495906

The following Figure shows Tahoe Donner Single Family Home activity from Jan 2008 through May ‘10. It was another good month with 15 homes sold in May. Contact me for any questions you may have about this data.

Figure 1. Tahoe Donner Single Family Home Sales – Note seasonality of sales
Single Family home sales in May ’10 continue to outpace the last 2 year’s sales for May. This is significant since sales in Tahoe Donner are extremely seasonal. The net-net is that for a true picture of the market activity one must look at seasonality throughout the year. So, based on seasonality one can expect that sales will continue to rise the rest of 2010 – assuming we have enough inventory to sell!
Inventory (# of SF listings) picked up to 120. The very strong sales late last year reduced the number of available homes for sale and the remaining inventory has really been picked over. Low inventory and strong demand will obviously help to put some upward bias on home pricing.
Inventory is low at 120 homes on the market, up from 89 last month. When you consider we have over 5100 homes in Tahoe Donner this is approximately 2.4 % of the homes in TD. Based on historical data we could expect the inventory to pick up a bit as we get into the summer and fall selling season. Inventory typically rises this time of year because of the Ski Lease properties coming off lease and some owners deciding to list their properties.
Average Days on market (DOM) decreased significantly to 100 from 128 days – which looking at the above graph seems about average for the last few years.
Single family home sales were 15 homes, down from 22 last month. As mentioned previously, based on seasonality data for the last couple years we can expect to see home sales rising through the summer and fall. I would expect to see the home builders start to come out of hibernation due to the low inventory. A consequence of this is that demand for buildable lots should show an increase now as we enter the spring building season.

Figure 2. Tahoe Donner Single Family Home Median and Average Home Price
One important change that started in Jan of ’09 is that Average and Median prices had a significant downturn – see Figure 2. However, one can see that the average and median prices are picking up a bit since Jul of ‘09. This is a good trend and could be construed as a sign that the Tahoe Donner single family home market is healthy.
One factor that affects this price curve is that we have a dearth of high end new home construction activity in Tahoe Donner. This will tend to keep single family (SF) home pricing a bit lower until we get some additional high end construction activity.
I hope this data, presented in this form was useful to you. For an instant update, or a discussion about condos/townhomes, please call me and I’ll be pleased to provide you with the most recent data available. MLS data is available and I encourage the buyer or seller to study the data and arrive at their own conclusions before making a buy or sell decision. Contact me if you would like to see the “raw” data. I also have sold price vs. listed price data – this is very helpful if you are considering selling or buying a home – call me for a copy of this data.
Gary LaBelle, Realtor
www.truckeehome411.com
TruckeeRealEstate@Gmail.com
(530) 448-1100
DRE #01495906

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Opens May 28th, 2010.

They have a wide variety of season passes and rates for Tahoe Donner Homeowners as well as the public.

Click here for the link to the Tahoe Donner Golf Course.

Hope to see you on the course - if you want to look at properties give me a call.

Gary, 530-448-1100 or TruckeeRealEstate@gmail.com, www.truckeehome411.com

The following Figure shows Tahoe Donner Single Family Home activity from Jan 2008 through April ‘10.

Figure 1. Tahoe Donner Single Family Home Sales - Note seasonality of sales

Single Family home sales in April '10 continue to outpace the last 2 year's sales for April. This is significant since sales in Tahoe Donner are extremely seasonal. The net-net is that for a true picture of the market activity one must look at seasonality throughout the year. So, based on seasonality one can expect that sales will continue to rise through the fall - assuming we have enough inventory to sell!

Inventory (# of listings) is still very low. The very strong sales late last year reduced the number of available homes for sale and the remaining inventory has really been picked over. Low inventory and strong demand will obviously help to put some upward bias on home pricing.

Inventory is low at 89 homes on the market, up from 73 last month. When you consider we have over 5100 homes in Tahoe Donner this is approximately 1.7 % of the homes in TD. Based on historical data we could expect the inventory to climb as we get into the summer and fall selling season. Inventory typically rises this time of year because of the Ski Lease properties coming off lease and some owners deciding to list their properties.

Average Days on market (DOM) increased significantly to 128 from 86 days - which looking at theBo above graph seems slightly above average for the last few years.

Single family home sales were 22 homes, up from 13 last month. As mentioned previously, based on seasonality data for the last couple years we can expect to see home sales rising through the summer and fall. Be aware that quarter-to-quarter sales comparisons may not make a lot of sense due to the seasonality of home sales in Tahe Donner.

I would expect to see the home builders start to come out of hibernation due to the low inventory. A consequence of this is that demand for buildable lots should show an increase now as we enter the spring building season.

Figure 2. Tahoe Donner Single Family Home Median and Average Home Price

One important change that started in Jan of '09 is that Average and Median prices had a significant downturn - see Figure 2. However, one can see that the average and median prices have stayed fairly constant since Jul of ‘09. This is a good trend and could be construed as a sign that the Tahoe Donner single family home market is healthy.

One factor that affects this price curve is that we have a dearth of high end new home construction activity in Tahoe Donner. This will tend to keep SF home pricing a bit lower until we get some additional high end construction activity.

I hope this data, presented in this form was useful to you. For an instant update, or a discussion about condos/townhomes, please call me and I'll be pleased to provide you with the most recent data available. MLS data is available and I encourage the buyer or seller to study the data and arrive at their own conclusions before making a buy or sell decision. Contact me if you would like to see the "raw" data. I also have sold price vs. listed price data - this is very helpful if you are considering selling or buying a home - call me for a copy of this data.

Gary LaBelle, Realtor

www.truckeehome411.com

TruckeeRealEstate@Gmail.com

(530) 448-1100

DRE #01495906