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Predicting Fixed Mortgage Interest Rates -Garth Chapman

11-06-09
Todd & Danielle Millar

After scanning over my blog I realize we are on a lot of great mailing lists. Getting news from industry leaders is crucial to staying on top in any business. It's what separates savvy investors from "flying by the seat of my pants" investors.

One mailing list we are so grateful to be on is Garth Chapman's of Jencor Mortgages and Remasoft. Garth is a wonderful mentor to us and has helped us streamline our investments to both our and our joint venture partner's benefits. He knows real estate investing from all angles, as a successful investor, from developing a software system specifically for investors and as a mortgage broker.

An excerpt from his last mail-out:

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"Here is a nice simple explanation of how fixed mortgage rates are tied to bond rates – and how to predict when they might be headed up or down.

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Canadian 5 yr bond yields -.03bps to 2.73. The spread, based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published of 4.34% is 1.61. Just as a reminder, the floor and ceiling rates suggest the “comfort zone” (currently between 1.35% and 1.55%) where lenders want the spread to be.

Canadian 5 yr bond yields -.03bps to 2.73. The spread, based on the MERIX 5 yr rate published of 4.34% is 1.61. Just as a reminder, the floor and ceiling rates suggest the “comfort zone” (currently between 1.35% and 1.55%) where lenders want the spread to be.

If the “Rate Barometer” (which is the spread between the fixed 5 year rate and the 5 year bond yield) stays within the floor and ceiling range, then you likely won’t see a rate change. If the spread, dips below the floor for extended periods (over a week), then expect a rate hike.

And likewise, if the spread remains above the ceiling rate, expect a rate drop in the near future.

The yield, rate of return on your bond, can be read through a yield curve, which is the pattern of yields on bonds. This increase in bond yield is something to watch.

If the bond yield continues to go up, the spread will continue to shrink and this could be a trigger for interest rates to rise. Ideally lenders are looking for a spread between 1.35 and 1.55."

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Time Management Ninja Mom

11-03-09
Todd & Danielle Millar
My son is getting bigger everyday. He's sprouted two teeth and loves to crawl all over the furniture. My worries have gone from, "Why is he crying all the time?" to "Why is he so quiet... What's he up to?"


As babies become toddlers they stop sleeping so much - 16 hours a day becomes 10 or less. What does that mean for a work at home mom? I've got to become a time management ninja. I'm not there yet. I can still be distracted by MSN.com when I should be doing the books or I'll get stuck in the internet pit of time wasting when I should be doing paperwork.

How do successful business moms do it? How do you teach your child everything he needs to know before kindergarten and still put in the 9,10,11, 15 hours days that the home office requires? Luckily my husband is a fantastic cook so he covers the kitchen.

I found one great blog, I'm sure there are hundreds but I really like the ideas in this one.

For example:

2. There’s a sewing book that is titled “Five, Ten, Fifteen Minutes to Sew” and the premise is that you divide your sewing into tasks that will take that long to do. When you have five minutes, grab something from the five minute list and so on. This technique is brilliant for work at home mums. For those moments when you don’t have enough time to work on your high priority tasks, know what you need to do that will take only a few minutes. Or can be picked up for a few minutes and then put back down. Filing, writing lists, planning posts, can all be done in short spurts of time.

It's pure genius! I've already started to do this and my twitching eye has calmed down considerably.

Check out more of this award winning Australian Blog
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Will a Rising Canadian Dollar Help Homeowners?

11-02-09
Todd & Danielle Millar

I'm on Peter Kinch's mailing list because you never know when you'll need a top quality mortgage broker and you can never get enough insight into mortgage interest rates.

Here is a recent mailout:

In case you missed it the following is a copy of the interview between Peter Kinch and Russell Byth that aired Sunday, November 1st on News 1130

Russ:
There's been a lot of talk recently about Canada's economic recovery and a key component of that recovery has been record low interest rates. So, does an economic recovery spell the end of low rates for homeowners?

On the line with me is best selling author, Peter Kinch with Dominion Lending Centres. Pete, what are your thoughts?

Peter:
Well Russ, there's no question that the Bank of Canada used 'Emergency Rates' to kick start the economy and once again we've seen that the housing market was at the heart of that recovery.

Russ:
So once the Central Bank feels the recovery is in full swing, will they start to raise rates?

Peter:
Technically yes - in fact, the Central Bank's main mandate is to keep inflation at about the 2% level. If inflation is below 2% they keep rates low to stimulate the economy and if it's above 2% they raise rates to cool it off.

Russ:
But in spite of signs that we are in a full recovery, inflation is still below 2%.

Peter:
That's right and mainly thanks to the strength of the Canadian dollar. In fact, the Bank of Canada is quite concerned that if the Loonie continues to gain on the US Greenback it could dampen Canada's recovery, which will serve to keep inflation below the 2% mark, thus resulting in the Central Bank continuing to keep the Prime rate low for now.

But in the meantime Russ, remember that the long term rates are governed by the bond markets and they are starting to factor in a recovery - so we will likely see a slight rise in the long term rates over that same period.

Russ:

Thanks Pete, something to keep an eye on. In the business centre, I'm Russell Byth.

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Easter in December

11-01-09
Todd & Danielle Millar

Last week, actually about 10 days ago I went shopping. I was looking for a gift for my friend's daughter's birthday. I walked into this very stylish downtown mall and was greeted by... Christmas music!

Throughout the shops you could hear the jing-jing-jingling of the coming festive season. For a second, I was lost in thought thinking"Wow where did November go?" only to be brought back to reality when I spotted all the Halloween decorations.

That's right, Xmas music - Halloween decorations.

It pays to be prepared. I read an article today about the increasing rate of business bankruptcies in the USA. Many commercial leases were being broken as the companies went under and were unable to fulfill their contracts. But at the same time there are temporary businesses looking for quick profits during the holiday booms. One such costume rental company in Edmonton is open for 2 weeks before Halloween and for a few days after.

Savvy commercial landlords offered short term leases to opportunistic business folk who only intend on riding the seasonal wave. What a sweet marriage for the two businesses. Many seasonal companies have trouble finding space to lease for the short term and these landlords were able to solve their problems and at the same time recoup some loses.

Here are the two lessons that I gleaned from my trip to the mall.

#1 It pays to prepare. Work your plan solidly. If that means buying an investment property, get out there and start your research now. The added knowledge will give you power when you are ready to buy.

#2 Look for solutions in would-be problems. The commercial property owners weren't happy about losing leases to bankrupt clients - but they looked at the challenge and rose to the occasion by meeting new client's needs.


In a world that is always two holidays ahead, make sure your business solutions aren't Easter in December.

"Take time to deliberate; but when the time for action arrives, stop thinking and go in." Napoleon Bonaparte I appreciate all your calls and emails. I'm looking forward to helping you put together your next deal.

Thank You,
Todd and Danielle Millar

To get cash flowing investment properties, Edmonton economic updates and investment tips and advice sign up for our bi-weekly newsletter.

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Steffany Hanley - Dare To Be A Champion

10-29-09
Todd & Danielle Millar
Steffany Hanley, an incredible personal and performance coach, will be holding a Champions Seminar in Vancouver November 14th and 15th.

We've heard her speak before from REIN and been so impressed to the clarity she brings to reaching goals. She has some amazing success stories that will seriously give you goose bumps.

From her site :
"Ready to overcome obstacles, surge past plateaus and achieve new levels of success? Steffany Hanlen is a performance coach with incredibly special and unique knowledge and understanding of the “winning strategies” you need to know to succeed beyond your wildest dreams.

As a coach Steffany has worked with high-profile professional and amateur athletes, including NHL hockey players and Olympians, as well as singers, actors, ballroom dancers, business owners, CEOs, real estate investors, parents, hard-working “regular people (non-athletes)” and many others … and in each and every case her mission has been the same – to help clients expand and grow, overcome challenges, and achieve even greater success."

Click Here to read more!
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