Peter & Tammy Gibaud

For all number crunchers out there, here's what happened in Chambersburg and Franklin County, PA during September 2011. Basically, the positive trends of the past few months continued in September, adding weight to the argument that the real estate market in Franklin County is recovering, albeit slowly.

The number of homes sold in September, 120, was up 20% from a year ago, and the dollar volume of sales was up by nearly 17% to $19.7 million for the month. New listings were up modestly versus September 2010, but the number of active listings was down 11.3% to a 9.1 month supply at the current rate of sales. This is a big improvement compared with last year at this time, when over a year's supply of homes clogged the market.

Total pendings (homes under contract but not yet sold), which had been up smartly for several months, slowed down in September to 181, six fewer than in September 2010. New pendings were flat. Average days-on-market was 130 in September, in line with the five-year average and down from the high of 150 days a year ago. The market is still anemic, so one wouldn't expect these bits of good news to show up in firmer prices. Sure enough, the median sold price, at $151,200, was down 3.7% from September 2010--but at least it was up 6.9% from a month before.

As usual, people selling upper-brackets homes for this market need to understand the power of patience. In September 2011, the number of MLS-listed homes priced above $500,000 was 33. The number sold was...zero, nada, none. Two houses sold between $400,000 and $499,999 (of 20 on offer), and three sold between $300,000 and $399,999 out of 72 for sale. Bad as this sounds, September was actually a fairly active month at the higher price brackets.

What will the future bring? The old crystal ball is cloudy as usual. The local unemployment rate that was improving last spring lately has ticked back up to 7.2% in August. So, despite amazing interest rates (rates on a 30-year fixed-rate loan dipped below 4% for awhile last month) we expect home sales and prices to trend stable to slightly negative over the next six months.

The upshot is that homes are more affordable now that they've been in a long time. For the same payment that bought a $175,000 house last year, buyers can now step up to a $200,000 house. That's huge. In Chambersburg, Greencastle and Waynesboro, that can mean four bedrooms vs. three, for example. With prices not exactly in growth mode, it pays to have a healthy time horizon, say five years or more, to stay in the home.

Sellers, meanwhile, as a class aren't happy people. However, those with a solid reason to sell might as well list (smartly) and get it over with, because prices probably are going a little bit lower and then are expected to be stable (or flat-lined, if you want to think of that way) for some time to come--maybe years. Therefore, families should weigh carefully the pros and cons of putting off their future plans in the hope that prices may improve in the near term.

Market details for Franklin and other counties are available for the asking, for those who haven't yet satisfied their appetite for statistics (assuming such creatures exist, of course.)

The real estate market in Franklin County, PA disappointed in March, as the modest gains posted in February were not extended the following month. Neighboring Washington County, MD fared no better, with sold dollar volume down 15.5% and similar declines in average and median sold prices.

At 107, the number of Franklin County homes sold in March was two more than the 105 sold in March 2010. That was about it for the good news. Dollar volume of homes sold and the average sold price both were down by double-digits; the average sold price was down 12.7% and the median sold price was down 6.7%. Average days on market increased 40% to just over six months.

There must be something positive in the numbers, right? Well, inventories continued to fall year-over-year in Franklin and Washington Counties. Active listings in Franklin were down 8.2% from March 2010, chiefly because new listings were off by 20.5%; however, total pendings also declined by 15.6%, which does not bode well for April's results. Washington County was a bit happier place, with active listings down 10.1% (new listings down a massive 28.2%) and pendings up 7.4%.

Financing in March looked like this for Franklin County. FHA loans were used in 17% of transactions for which financing was reported; VA loans accounted for 9%. Twenty-seven percent of homes sold for cash. The remainder were financed mostly with conventional or USDA Rural Housing loans. In Washington County, 31% of transactions were financed via FHA, 8% were VA, and a full third of homes were bought with cash. Only 28% of homes were financed with conventional or "other" means in Washington County during March.

What does any of this tell us about the future? The market in Franklin remains soft, and April is likely to see little change. A year ago, federal tax credits still were in place and plumped up the sales figures somewhat. Sales fell off after the tax credits expired at the end of April 2010, so we might expect sales in May and subsequent months this year to be ahead of 2010's results just for this reason.

We hear in media reports that more and more buyers are venturing into the real estate market, drawn by good selection, good prices, extra-good rates and an improving economy. More shoppers may indeed be out there, but their presence isn't showing in the numbers just yet.

Source - RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC, an MRIS company. Information deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.

And now, for anyone who wants to know, click for the stats for homes sold in Franklin County PA in May 2010.

By the way, the good folks at Long & Foster Real Estate produce really nifty Market Minutes for about 100 counties in southeast Pennsylvania, all of Maryland and the District of Columbia, most of Virginia and parts of Delaware, New Jersey and West Virginia. See what's up or down in your local market!

Here's the full link to Market Minutes on LNF.com: http://www.longandfoster.com/Market-Conditions/Market-Minutes.aspx

As career agents for Long & Foster in Chambersburg, PA, we help people buy and sell houses every day. We guide our clients through the logistics, finances and emotions of what generally are major--even life-changing--events. But then we find, as we guess many parents do, that we are ill-equipped to manage our own emotions when it comes to sending our three-year-old off to day care.

Today we handed Jack over to well-qualified care givers, but still left the building with heavy hearts. We had researched and satisfied our rational minds that this center was the best choice, yet emotionally we were still unprepared. We know many parents feel this way when they help their young adult children purchase their first homes. This explains why so many parents feel compelled to be involved with every detail of their child's transaction. Like us, they love their children and want to do right by them. In part because of the first-time homebuyer tax credit, we're meeting more young buyers--with parents in tow--than ever, and the "folks" want to interview us and scrutinize the house to be purchased.

You know what? That's okay. Without hesitation, we include moms and dads in the process and recognize the degree to which they influence their childrens' decisions. We accord them the respect due their position as parents. (Being the parents of four ourselves helps!) We realize that parents' (and all clients') trust must be earned and the process of building trust takes time. Parents need reassurance that their accomplished, independent, adult "babies" are in good hands.

When getting to know their clients, Realtors would do well to identify the influencers: the people who the buyers need by their sides, be they parents, other relatives or friends. And, you first-time home buyers should know that it's okay to include your extended family in your decision-making. It helps if, before you start on this journey, you tell your kindly Realtor who needs to be involved in the process. That way, everyone will be in the loop--and (hopefully) able to trust a professional despite the emotional roller-coaster.

Link to first time home buyers tax credit information http://alturl.com/zrxn

There was more trick or treating going on this Halloween then in the past 5 years, at least on our street. We ran out of candy half way through the night. My children had such fun especially at the houses that were decked out with skeletons and grave yards in the front yard. One street looked like they were having a decoration competition. There were lights, smoke filled bubbles floating by, creepy music and my youngest favorite, a full sized ape sitting on his front porch railing. Next year I will be prepared for the growing number of children, and maybe I too will join in on the decoration competition.