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Graig Ponthier

Buyers Market? Sellers Market? Mixed Market!

Almost regardless of the stage in a real estate cycle, someone benefits. Buyers benefit in a buyers market with more home to choose from at lower prices. Sellers benefit in a sellers market with higher prices and shorter days on the market. The type of market is determined by various statistics and data usually trending in a direction that favors either home buyers or home sellers. When these statistics don't trend in a direction where only one party benefits, as evidenced in the San Antonio data below, this could be seen as a Mixed Market where anyone stands to benefit.

Monthly Supply: At the current August sales pace it would take a little over 6 months to deplete the current single family home inventory. The National Association of REALTORS describes a balanced market as one with between 5 and 7 months inventory. Both home sellers and home buyers stand to benefit in a balanced market.

Monthly Supply

Active Listing Inventory: With fewer houses on the market, sellers have fewer homes to compete against when listing their home. With fewer choices for buyers, a home may sell faster and closer to its original asking price. Home sellers stand to benefit when listing inventories are lower.

Active Listings

Average Sales Price: A decreasing average sales price gives purchasing power for home buyers and makes buying a home more affordable. Lower sales prices may incentivize someone to "move-up" to a more expensive home or even put someone in the market who originally had no intentions to purchase a home. Homes buyers stand to benefit from decreasing homes prices

Average Sales Price

All Data from the San Antonio Board of REALTORS

Trickle Up Effect of $8,000 Stimulus

As we predicted, July turned out to be the first month for our area to see an increase in year-over-year single family home sales for San Antonio in quite some time. In fact, it was the first year-over-year increase reported since February 2008, some 17 months ago. This statistic coupled with a slight increase in the median sales price and various other real estate data trends continue to represent that the local market continues to stabilize.

It should come as no surprise that almost 70% of all homes sold during the month of July were less than $200,000. In fact, almost half the sales during the month were less than $150,000. This can be attributed to the success of the $8,000 first time home buyers tax credit which was part of the economic stimulus plan to reinvigorate the housing market. Say what you want about the trillions that have been spent as part of the stimulus package, but this $8,000 credit definitely helped. Obviously not all homes sold under $200,000 were to first time homebuyers, but imagine if you were to remove the chunk of those that were. Without these first time homebuyers, it is unlikely that we would have experienced this year-over-year increase in home sales that we had in July or the six consecutive monthly increases in home sales so far during 2009.

It's fair to compare the success of the $8,000 tax credit to that of the "Cash for Clunkers" program, in that, the stimulus money went into the hands of the consumer. The consumer driven incentives have been the stars of the overall stimulus plan. Even more successful, is the "trickle-up" effect of these plans. Look at the chain of events for the Cash for Clunkers program. Someone is incentivized to buy a car, the salesman makes money, the dealership makes money, the manufacturer makes money, need to order more cars, need to build more cars, need more parts to build cars, need to buy materials to build parts, need more labor to build cars and you end up with GM reporting their first profit in years.

The $8,000 tax credit creates a similar trickle-up effect when multiple parties benefit from the incentivized transaction including inspectors, appraisers, agents, builders, banks, title companies, painters and most importantly, home sellers! Unfortunately, the $8,000 first time home buyer credit is set to expire on December 1st. There is a big push to extend this deadline, but with so much on the plates of law makers it is unsure if their attention will turn back to the real estate industry. Until then, we will continue to support this consumer driven stimulus incentive as it benefits out local economy.

The $8,000 Incentive Just Keeps Getting Better

Incentives to buy one of the fine properties in Homes & Land magazine just keep getting better, especially for first time home buyers. As you may already know, the government is offering an $8,000 tax credit available to qualifying first time home buyers. This was part of the Economic Stimulus Package aimed at reinvigorating the housing market. This deal just keeps getting better. When the incentive was initially offered it was treated as an $8,000 loan to the home buyer which included a payback plan. Subsequent to this initial offering, the plan was "sweetened up" so that the $8,000 credit, which home buyers would receive at tax time, no longer had to be paid back. The $8,000 went into the pockets of first time home buyers with no repayment plan attached.

Now the government has finalized a plan to allow first time home buyers to use the $8,000 tax credit at the closing of their home. As opposed to waiting for the refund until after the closing, this new plan will allow buyers who qualify to utilize these funds at the closing table. Previously buyers had to close on their home and then file an amendment to their 2008 taxes or wait to file their 2009 taxes next year, to take advantage of the credit. This new plan will reduce the overall cost of your home at purchase time. However, this free money from the Government won't last forever. It is only available to qualifying home buyers who purchase a home during 2009. So if this incentive affects you, its time to act fast with just six months left in the year.

The Fed has also made low mortgage rates a priority in its strategy to help the housing market. In order to achieve that, the central bank has been buying mortgage backed securities and Treasuries. Since this past fall, it has bought more than $460 billion of mortgage-backed securities and more than $125 billion of Treasury bonds. However, this too won't last forever. Investors worry the government's approach could lead to inflation and push up the government's cost of raising money, meaning higher interest rates. Signs of a recovery in the U.S. and across the globe may attract investors to move out of the relative safe Treasury market and into securities that may yield more, such as corporate bonds, stocks and other debt. While that's generally good news for the U.S., it will make it harder for the Fed to push rates even lower than they already are today. Regardless, today's mortgage rates coupled with buyer incentives and large inventories have created a market ripe for home buyers.

With all these variables affecting the housing market, it underscores the importance of using a Homes & Land REALTOR when buying or selling a home. Whether you're buying your first home, your retirement home or a vacation home from our Coastal Section (June, July and August issues), a Homes & Land RELATOR can explain how these factors and incentives may affect your real estate transaction. Contact a Homes & Land REALTOR today; they're the best in the business.

San Antonio Locale

One of my favorite things about living in San Antonio is its location. No other large metropolitan city in the State of Texas has the locale of San Antonio. A short 30 minute drive in almost any direction will land you among the State’s most beautiful scenery and unique towns. A 30 minute drive in one direction and you find yourself in some of the finest Hill Country settings our State has to offer. Like the rolling hills of Pipe Creek and Bandera to the charm of Boerne and Blanco.

A thirty minute drive in another direction and you’re at one of the most beautiful “under-appreciated” lakes in the State, Canyon Lake. I say this because with blue water, rocky bluffs and crawling with character, it always surprises me how under-developed Canyon Lake is, being do close to San Antonio. If you were to put Canyon Lake 30 minutes outside of Houston, it would be full of residential developments, hotels and high-rise condos, just like Lake Conroe is today.

In just 30 minutes, San Antonian’s can find themselves among some of the States most beautiful topography. Think about it, a thirty minute drive from Houston or Dallas and you would still be in Houston or Dallas.

Living in San Antonio also puts you closer to the coast than any other large metropolitan city, besides Houston. And let’s face it, San Antonian’s love the Texas Coast. That’s why Homes & Land will have a special “Coastal Section” in our June, July and August summer issues. In each if these issues, a section of the magazine will be devoted to Coastal properties primarily focusing on the areas between Rockport and North Padre Island, the closest coastal cities to San Antonio. We hope you enjoy this special addition to the magazine.

I have mentioned before about the importance of owning real estate as part of your investment portfolio. Almost regardless of the risk, real estate can enhance and or improve the overall performance of an investment portfolio. This is mainly because the value of a piece of real estate will work in its own direction based on location, demand, desirability, growth, features, and various other factors. Whether it’s your primary residence in San Antonio, a second home in Rockport or a rental unit in Port Aransas, real estate is a great way to diversity your investments returns.

So pick a weekend and see for yourself. Take a day trip to Canyon Lake or Bandera and see opportunities these areas offer. Have lunch at one of the local establishments. Or pack a bag and head to the Texas Coast

Lots of Green

As we flip another page in our calendar we find ourselves at the beginning of a new season. The changing colors of Spring. However this year, it won't be just the trees and grass turning green, so will some Realtors. In response to growing consumer demand for green homes, the National Association of Realtors has introduced a new Green designation. This new curriculum for Realtors will help meet the goals of home buyers and sellers who care about energy efficiency and environmentally sound building practices. Consumers continue to understand the link between green homes, cost savings and healthy living.

This Spring also marks the time of the year for one of the areas green building events. The 2009 Homes of Distinction at Stone Creek Ranch takes place from March 19th - April 4th. The event showcases "concept homes" featuring all the latest in modern amenities and green building practices with some certified by The Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design Green Building Rating System (LEED). After a recent sneak preview of a 4,363 square foot LEED certified home, built by Mattern & FitzGerald Custom Builders, it is clear that this certification is no "pat-on-the-back" for effort. LEED certification for a new home requires compliance with a series of rigorous third party inspections from site planning and design, to eco-friendly carpet and appliances. A green home uses less energy, water and natural resources; creates less waste; and is healthier and more comfortable for the occupants. Benefits include lower energy and water bills; reduced greenhouse gas emissions; and less exposure to mold, mildew and other indoor toxins.

LEED certified homes can offer energy and utility savings of anywhere from 20-60%. According to research published by McGraw-Hill Construction, energy cost saving was the number two reason for building green. The number one reason for building green is quality. Although many homes today offer green features, only a handful of new San Antonio homes are LEED certified. It is clear however, that green homes building is here to stay. It is predicted that green home building will double over the next few years making it a $40 - $70 billion dollar industry. Green building is not just a current fad, it is becoming mainstream.

If all this green talk is not enough to excite you about looking at some of the finest homes in San Antonio, how about the other green? The color of money! The recent economic stimulus plan that passed in early February included a new incentive for first-time home buyers. A tax credit of up to $8,000 is now available for first-time home buyers who purchase a home anytime during 2009. Call it what you want but don't let the term "tax credit" confuse you, this is cash in your pocket and it never has to be paid back. Call a Realtor to find out more about this new incentive and any others that may apply to you.