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Chuck and Diane Reiling

Your House Is Crumbling Around You!

Image of tired house, starting to crumbleThat catchy title is better than saying you should think about deferred maintenance, but that's really the topic - the topic of maintaining your own home, and what it might cost you if you don't. It's a serious topic, but I'll try not to preach :-)


We all know about condominium homeowners dues that have to be paid every month. We often don't think about the fact that their primary purpose is to pay for the ongoing maintenance of the property - depositing money regularly into a building maintenance fund. Typically those dues amount to about 1.5 % / year of the value of the property. On a $400,000 condo they would run about $6,000 a year, or $500/mo.


So on your own home you might want to think about that 1.5% in similar terms. Most of us don't have a reserve fund set up that we pay into every month. We just wait until the roof needs redoing, or the house needs painting, and then we do it. But what if we don't? That's called deferred maintenance. And then what happens if you want to sell it?


An out-of-date kitchen might cost you in reduced price only what it would cost you to do it. Maybe that's a wash, so to speak, but you could have been enjoying it if you had done it a little earlier. But roofs and exterior paint and the appearance of front doors and garage doors are a different matter. If those are in bad shape when you want to sell, our experience is that you will pay for them twice. First, because they have such a negative effect on the appearance of the house, the buyer will offer you a lower price to start with, and then second, on inspection the buyer will ask for them to be done anyway. Sure you can negotiate, but you don't really have much wiggle room these days.


So think about doing the maintenance basics when they need doing. Otherwise the value of your home will be dropping about 1.5%/year, like 15% in 10 years, and your house might literally be crumbling around you.


The Sweet Spot

South Sammamish 'Sweet Spot' house
People sometimes ask me what I think is 'the sweet spot' in today's Greater Seattle - Bellevue real estate market. In response I have usually mentioned some areas and criteria that might fit the question, but hadn't really thought it through.

So here's a little better cut at it. I think a 'sweet spot' home might be defined by three parameters:

First, a nice-looking consistent neighborhood that will hold its value and be a pleasant place to live over a span of years,

Second, one with homes built with modern floor plans - commonly post-1985 with large kitchens and full master suites, that are easily upgraded and kept current, and

Third, homes priced in the $600,000 to $700,000 range that deliver the most home for your dollar within the low interest rate/low down payment range of conventional mortgages.

A quick search of the MLS shows at least 100 properties of that type currently available - here's a map to give you an idea of where:

Sweet Spot real estate map for the greater Seattle - Bellevue area

As you can see, they are heavily concentrated on the east side, as would be expected if you have read my earlier post on History and Housing Trends of the Greater Seattle Area.

Many of them are clustered in small areas, and that is where we would go looking for the nice neighborhoods. Here are 8 examples from some of the neighborhoods that come to mind:

Example pics of sweet-spot homes for sale in the greater Seattle Bellevue area

These neighborhoods of Newcastle, Lakemont, Renton Highlands, N. Issaquah, Pine lake, S. Sammamish, E. Kirkland, English Hill, Bear Creek and several others all have multiple sweet-spot homes for sale, and as you can see, they offer a lot of house for the money.

If you'd like to look further into some of these these sweet-spot homes, here's a link to Greater Seattle Home Search where the Sweet Spot page will show you a lot more detail on current sweet-spot listings.

Potentially an even better deal is if you can find one that is a short sale or bank-owned and buy it at a discount. Short sales are not easy, and bank-owned may have a fair amount of deferred maintenance, but its worth it if you have the time and a little money for fix-up.

Let us know if you'd like to take a look at some sweet-spot homes in the Greater Seattle-Bellevue-Eastside area.

2011 - The Years Ahead in the Greater Seattle - Bellevue Area

2011 - The Years Ahead

Crystal Ball with House & right borderFor over 35 years the Seattle area had a pretty solid record of home price increases - sometimes just a little, and sometimes breathtakingly, as in 1979, 1989, and 2006/07. Over that period, median single-family home price in the Greater Seattle-Bellevue area rose from about $35,000 to over $480,000 at the peak in '07.

But that string got broken in the subprime financing debacle of 2008, and I don't think it is coming back soon.

There are three major areas of consideration that make up my opinion - Demand, Supply, and Financing. Each has several points woth noting.

Demand: Demand is weak, plain and simple. Although we are told the economy is getting better, and consumer confidence is improving, we are still creating jobs at a rate that only marginally keeps up with population growth, and many of those jobs are lower-wage jobs than before. Also, net in-migration to the Seattle area is down to approximately nothing - it used to be about 20,000 net new people a year moving here for new jobs and homes, but the crash and the recession have put at least a temporary stop to that. And, last but not least, many of the homeowners who would like to buy up and move up can't, because their mortgage is underwater and they no longer have the equity for a down-payment - they're stuck where they are.

Supply: Supply is more than adequate, although we are not grossly overbuilt like Florida or Nevada, except maybe for high-end condos. A few years ago I had thought that we might be moving into a shortage of single-family homes because of the population and job growth versus the restrictive building practices of Washington state and King County. But, unfortunately, we have solved that problem with unemployment and foreclosures, and it looks like it will take at least another 2 to 3 years to work through both of those factors. And those factors alone are creating enough back pressure on prices that I don't think we'll see any significant home price increases during that workout period.

Financing: At this point FHA, formerly the lender of last resort, is now almost 50% of the market, and their lending and appraisal standards are still tightening. And the banks are pretty restrictive too while they work out their own problems. The pendulum has clearly swung from lending practices that were way too loose to practices that are way too tight. But on the brighter side, it appears that the Fed is committed to keeping interest rates low, although perhaps not as low as last summer, so that high interest rates don't damage our still-fragile economic recovery. I also believe that lending practices will start loosening as more big-money outfits start trying to get out of the low-yield bond market and back into something that pays a decent return. There is a lot of money out there that needs to be put somewhere, and there are way too many people in this world who make their living selling money to leave an opportunity like this untouched.

Conclusion: So where I think we wind up is that both home prices and volume of homes sold will stay right about where they are at for the next couple of years, as long as no one throws a new monkey wrench in the works. That being said, I'd suggest that if you have good reasons to move, not dependent on price appreciation, and worth the cost and effort, go ahead and do it....and if you don't have a good reason, don't.

There are still over 1,500 people a month in King County that find they have those good reasons; if you are one of them, please give us a call :-)


January ’11 – Reiling’s Real Estate Market Report: Greater Seattle / Bellevue Area

Real Estate Market Overview
thumbnail of closed sales
Our Greater Seattle-Bellevue real estate market continues to show normal seasonal patterns in inventory, but sales volume was unusually high in December, and months supply for single-family homes took a related drop to its lowest point in over a year. Interim data suggest that January sales volumes will be back to their normal seasonal low. The most recent monthly median price for single-family homes bumped up a little to $370,000, about where it was a year or so ago.

The condominium market also had a big jump in closed sales in December, and a corresponding big drop in months supply - I don't expect these numbers to carry forward into January. December median price for condominiums confirmed November's step down.

This market report is a bit shorter than usual because it is paired with the following post on "2011 - The Years Ahead".

Current Market Statistics

The links below provide a graphical summary of Real Estate Market Statistics for the Seattle/Bellevue/King County area over the most recent 3 years, for single-family homes and for condominiums.

Here's the charts for the current stats through December: (Required disclaimer: Statistics and graphs not compiled, reviewed or verified by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service)

December 2010 Closed Real Estate Residential Sales - Greater Seattle: December 2010 Closed Real Estate Condominium Sales - Greater Seattle:


As noted above, monthly Closed Sales rates for both single-family homes and condominium homes jumped up significantly in December, and Month's Supply dropped corresponding ly. I doubt that either will be sustained in January, and I expect that it will look more like November. We also have an anomaly in the Days on Market numbers, which have suddenly dropped back to their old pre-May 2010 ranges. Rather than try to conjure-up explanations for these things, I think I'll just wrap up this portion of the newsletter right here.

There's plenty to think about in the following '2011 - The Years Ahead' post.

Mountain River Lodge

Mountain River Lodge in WinterWe don't normally post real estate listings in our blog, but this one was too good to pass up :-)

Mountain River Lodge is a magnificent 10,072 sf timber lodge built in 2006 in a gorgeous scenic setting on 51 level wooded acres bordered by a half mile of Yakima River frontage. 5 bedrooms with baths upstairs, 4 bedrooms with baths on the main floor. Full commercial kitchen with all appliances. Huge wrap-around deck.

Expansive open space and lawn in front of the Lodge leading down to the river on three sides. Barn with 4 horse stalls and corral.

Four-season access from I-90 just about an hour from Seattle. Could be a spectacular single-family or multi-family recreational compound, with the best of eastern slope weather - brilliant warm sunshine in the summer and powdery white snow in the winter. Skiing, snowmobiling, fishing, cycling, water skiing, hiking, riding - all within minutes.

Listing price: $4,950,000. For a virtual tour, click here. If you have well-to-do friends who might like a truly unique family recreational compound, please pass it on.