Don Grimes

There are five pieces of economic news that may affect mortgage rates this week. There are relevant reports scheduled for release every day except for Tuesday, meaning it likely will be a fairly active week for mortgage rates.

November's manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will kick off the week's data at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. That is a recessionary sign and could help keep mortgage rates low.

The next piece of data that we need to be conce rned with comes Wednesday morning with the release of the revised 3rd Quarter Productivity report. Current forecasts are calling for an annual rate of 0.9%, down from the previous estimate of 1.1%.

The Fed Beige Book will be posted Wednesday afternoon. This report, which is named after the color of its cover, details economic conditions by region. It is relied on heavily during the FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy, so it results can influence bond trading and mortgage rates if it shows any significant su rprises.

Thursday's only report of the day is October's Factory Orders. Analysts are expecting to see a drop in orders of approximately 2.5%.

The Labor Department will post November's Employment report early Friday morning. This is arguably the most important monthly report we see. It is comprised of many statistics and readings, but the most important ones are the unemployment rate, the number of news jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for another upward change in the unemployment rate to 6.8%, payrolls down approximately 300,000 and an increase of 0.2% in average earnings. An ideal scenario for mortgage sho ppers would be a higher unemployment rate than 6.8%, a larger decline in jobs and no change in the earnings portion.

Overall, the most important day of the week is Friday with the employment figures being released, but we may also see movement in rates Monday and Wednesday. The remaining days could be fairly quiet, depending on stock market gains or losses. Friday's data could cause a significant change in rates, but if it reveals stronger than expected results we may see rates spike higher Friday morning. Ahead of the report, we may see pressure in bonds as investors prepare for its release. Accordingly, I am holding the lock recommendations for short and intermediate-term periods.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....

Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days...

Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days...

Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking pla ce over 60 days from now...

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of an abundance of economic reports for the markets to digest. There are seven reports on the calendar with several being considered to be of high importance to the bond market and mortgage rates. With multiple moderately or highly important reports due out more than one day this week, we will likely see a fair amount of movement in mortgage rates day to day.

October's Existing Home Sales data will be posted late this morning. This report, along with Wednesday's New Home Sales data are the least important reports of the week. They give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but the bond market generally does not rely heavily on their results.

The first important data comes early tomorrow morning brings us the first revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading. The GDP revision is expected to show a downward revision from last month's preliminary r eading of -0.3%. Current forecasts call for a reading of approximately -0.6%, meaning that there was less economic growth during the third quarter than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Late tomorrow morning, November's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be posted. If consumer confidence is rising, analysts believe that consumers are more apt to make larger purchases, essentially fueling economic growth. This raises inflation concerns and usually pushes mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting a small increase from last month's 38.0 reading to somewhere around 39.5. A weaker than expected reading should be good news for mortgage rates, but a stronger than expected reading could push mortgage rates higher Tuesday.

There are four importan t reports scheduled to be posted Wednesday morning. October's Durable Goods Orders is the first and will be posted early morning. This data helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items. It is expected to show a 2.5% drop in new orders. A larger decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

The second is October's Personal Income and Outlays data. This data is thought to measure consumers' ability to spend and their current spending habits. It is expected to show that income rose 0.1% and that spending fell 0.7%. Smaller than expected readings would be good news for bonds and could lead to improvements in mortgage rates.

Overall, I believe that it is going to be an active week for the mortgage market. Today or Friday will be the least important day of the week and either Tuesday or Wednesday will be the most important. The bond market will close early Wednesday and remain closed Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday. I still expect to see plenty of movement in rates the remaining days, so please be careful and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....

Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days...

Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days...

Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days...

Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financi ng a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

This week brings us the release of five monthly reports for the markets to digest along with the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. The first report scheduled for release this week is October's Industrial Production tomorrow morning. It is expected to reveal a 0.1% decline in output. Stronger levels of production would be considered bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

We will get the first of this week's two key inflation readings early Tuesday morning when October's Producer Price Index (PPI) is posted. If it reveals stronger than expected readings, in dicating that inflationary pressures are rising, the bond market will probably react negatively and should drive mortgage rates higher. If we see in-line or weaker than expected numbers, mortgage rates should fall. Current forecasts are calling for a decline of 1.5% in the overall reading and a 0.2% increase in the core reading.

Wednesday's only data is October's Housing Starts. This data gives us an indication of housing sector strength, but usually does not have a noticeably impact on mortgage rates. I don't expect this month's version to be any different unless it varies greatly from analysts forecast. It is expected to show a decline in starts of new homes.

Also Wednesday is the afternoon release of the minutes to the last FOMC meeting.The key will be concerns over inflation and the Fed's next move. If the Fed members were concerned about inflationary pr essures, we may see the bond market move lower and mortgage rates higher Wednesday afternoon. However, if they indicate a likelihood of another rate cut in the coming months, we should see the bond market rise and mortgage rates drop during afternoon trading.

Overall, look for Tuesday or Thursday to be the most important day of the week with the PPI and CPI reports scheduled for release those days. They are the two most important releases of the week and can individually lead to large swings in the markets and mortgage rates. The FOMC minutes may also heavily influence trading and deserve to be watched also. I think this will be a fa irly active week for mortgage rates, so please maintain regular contact with your mortgage professional.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home,

I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days...

Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days...

Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days...

Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

This week brings us the release of only three relevant economic reports with only one of them being considered highly important. It is a holiday shortened week with the bond market closing early Monday and remaining closed Tuesday in observance of the Veterans Day holiday.

The first data of the week is September's Goods and Services Trade Balance report Thursday morning. It helps us measure the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but usually is not a major influence on bond trading or mortgage pricing. It does affect the value of the U.S. dollar, which makes U.S. securities more attractive to international investors when the dollar is strong. This is because the securities' proceeds are worth more when sold and converted to the investor's domestic currency. However, its results will not likely directly lead to changes in mortgage rates.

There are two reports scheduled for release Friday. October's Retail Sales report is the first. This report is very important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely.

The last of the week's three reports comes late Friday morning when November's preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment will be released. This index measures consumer confidence, which gives us an indication of consumer willingness to spend.

Overall, look for a fairly quiet week in the mortgage market compared to previous weeks unless something totally unexpected transpires. As long as the stock markets remain fairly calm, I am expecting to see mortgage rates follow suit.

If I were considering financing or purchasing a home, I would....

Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days...

Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days...

Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days...

Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home.

It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

There are only two pieces of data scheduled for release this week that may affect mortgage rates along with testimony by Fed Chairman Bernanke. Neither of the reports are considered to be of high importance to the markets, so I am expecting the stock markets to again play a significant role in bonds swings and changes to mortgage rates.

The first report is will be posted late tomorrow morning when the Conference Board posts September's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). This index attempts to measure future economic activity, particularly during the next three to six months. Current forecasts are calling for a decline of 0.3% from August?s reading. This would indicate that economic activity is likely to slow moderately. That would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Chairman Bernanke will speak before the House Budget Committee late tomorrow morning regarding the status of the economic recovery plan. As usual, market participants will be watching his words carefully. We may see them cause fluctuations in the markets while he is speaking, however, I suspect he will not say anything drastically surprising to anyone.

The middle part of the week is very calm in terms of economic releases and related events. Accordingly, look for significant movement in the stock markets to lead to any sizable movements in bonds or mortgage pricing.

September's Existing Home Sales that will be posted at 10:00 AM ET Friday. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. I don't see it having much of an influence on the bond market or mortgage rates, but a reading that varies greatly from analysts' forecasts could lead to a slight change in mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a slight increase in sales from August to September.

Overall, I am expecting to see a fairly quiet week for mortgage rates, assuming the stock markets are not wild agai n. The most important day will likely be tomorrow with the more important of the two releases scheduled and the testimony from Chairman Bernanke. However, just because it is a light week in terms of economic news, we should not let our guard down as the markets can implode or rally at anytime these days.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.