Gene Ward

If an Alamo home search is in your future the following market statistics and conditions are encouraging.

Active Listings = 133

Total Pending Sales = 29

- Pending Short Sales = 11

- Pending REO (bank owned), = 1

- Pending in Last 30 Days = 15

Months of Inventory (Active Listings divided by pending sales in last 30 days), = 8.86 months of inventory.

Sales in the upper end market seem to be doing well compared to other areas here in Contra Costa county. Alamo has always been a desirable area so those that can afford to move up are doing so.

If you are in the market for an Alamo home now is the time to make your move before interest rates begin their enivitable climb. Jumbo loans are now available at interest rates far below where they were at the beginning of this year. For more information about Alamo and available properties give me a call or shoot me an email to start your Alamo home search.

As I was getting ready to write this blog I realized I had no interest at all in what I was goint to blog about, after all, it's Monday. I should be blogging about a new listing and the low ball offer we received after just one day on the market.

But... I would rather talk about the great time I had this last Sunday. You see, I like to ride motorcycles, I like to ride them as often as possible. In fact the more time on a bike the better.

I swear I'll take the camera next time because you just won't believe how absolultely beautiful the California coast was. Myself and two friends rode from the east bay over the San Rafael bridge. We took Lucas Valley road through the country to Highway 1. Rode north to Tomales bay and stopped at Tony's on the water for BBQ oysters. Man where they good! Stopped for gas and met two other bikers from South Carolina. They were on a road trip across country to S.F. then north up Hwy 1. They were eventually going to end up in Sturgess before heading back home. Very nice people come from S.C.

The weather was perfect, fog was just on the coast enough to need a jacket. The ocean is fantastic and Hwy 1 winds it's way up the coast line. We went north to Stewarts Point. There is a road heading east from Stewarts Point that looks a little sketchy, always claimed I would take that route someday. Sunday was the day. What a great 47 mile ride through the wilderness to Healdsburg. We didn't get home until after 7pm.

BTW - We did counter the offer, was countered back and generated a counter to that counter. We'll see what happens in the next day.

Just a sidenote; one of the other bikers riding with us was the home owner for the listing.

It's was a wonderful life until Monday roled around.

I spent Sunday riding around Alamo, Ca to see what's happening in the housing market. What I saw during my Alamo home search was nothing less than a market correction still playing itself out. As I'm sure you are aware, 2006 was the last year of the "booming real estate market". Some say the downturn started in 2005. As unemployment (currently 12%), continues to rise in California, even more homes will be put up for sale, most not voluntarily.

Let's compare last months market report (June/17/2009), with the current market data to determine the direction of the market, up or down.

Status June July

Active 132 142

Pending (last 30 days) 14 7

*Months of Inventory 13.2 20.3

*Months of inventory is determined by dividing the number of pending sales in the last 30 days into the number of current active listings.

The number of active listings has increased about 9%, but the number of properties that went pending decrease by 50%, which was a slow month.

I don't enjoy reporting on poor market performance but as a real estate agent and broker I must always be honest with my clients and the public.

If you need to sell your home, visit 10 homes for sale in your area that compare to your property. Grab the property brochure and start making notes about the good, the bad, and the ugly. Now go home and view your property just like a buyer would. Compare your home's features, location, condition, etc., with the 10 homes you just visited.

If you were in the market to buy a home in Alamo, would it be your home or one of the others? Let's suppose you selected your current home for whatever reason, how much would you offer? This is an exercise you really should perform as correctly pricing your home in this market will guarantee your home is sold when so many are available.

On another note, I have a listing coming on the market this thursday in San Ramon, view the property site here. http://909regencycourt.epropertysites.com

While checking on the housing market conditions in Alamo, CA I used Google base to search for "Alamo foreclosures and REO properties", there were 20 listed. I used realty.trac and found 17, which is correct? Not sure but the numbers below still paint a bleak picture for this upscale community of Alamo.

17 Bank owned

43 in Default (pre-foreclosure)

6 Trustee Sale properties in Auction.

From the MLS:

132 active listings. (That's the most I've seen in over 10 years.)

14 Pending Sales (Just 10 went pending in the last 30 days)

132 divided by 10= 13.2 months of inventory.

With 13.2 months of inventory I would say it's definatly a BUYER'S market.

I thought we would be on our way out of this mess by now but I'm not sure anymore when that will happen. So if you have a home for sale, or thinking of selling one, you have a lot of competition, be prepared to negotiate everything.

Is this a good time to buy? Maybe, depends on where you think the bottom is. If you're thinking of buying a home and you have a secure job or business and need to move or want to move up, go for it. Take on one of those bank owned properties, or a short sale, you're bound to get a pretty good deal.

So... How is the Alamo CA housing market doing today? With all the talk about the big increases in housing sales here in California you might assume everything was great, right? Well in Alamo and the surrounding communites of Danville, Blackhawk, San Ramon and Walnut Creek you would be wrong.

The Alamo, CA community has not seen a single family detached home priced below $600,000 since way back in 1996/97. I was doing my Alamo Home Search this weekend and found a home priced at $625,000, granted it was very close to the freeway and on a busy road but still, it's a detached home with a 1/2 acre lot. It is not a fixer and had many fine upgrades. When and if an offer is presented on this house you can be pretty sure it will be closer to $600,000, less than the asking price.

There are 116 homes listed in Alamo as of today. Just a few years ago the average number of listings was between 40 and 60. See the charts below for Average Days on the Market and Months of Inventory. As these charts go back two years they graphically tell a story. So why are these previously sought after Alamo homes languishing on the market?

There are a few good reasons...

1. Interest rates on loans exceeding the FHA conforming limits start around 6.7%, This rate requries at least a 20% down payment and an excellent credit score. In comparison, conforming loans can be found today under 5% with as little as a 3% down payment. And if it's a jumbo loan you'll need to find a bank willing to lend.

2. Jobs - Even in the executive arena people are loosing their jobs. No job, no money to pay the mortgage.

3. Option Arms and Alt A loans in default. Many of these currently listed Alamo homes that are either in foreclosure or REO bank owned were purchased between 2002 and 2006, when prices were at their peak and the banks were lending to anybody with a breath. In fact, I'm not sure breathing was even a requirement!

Is it going to pick up anytime soon? That's the $64,000 question and the answer is directly related to jobs and interest rates. If the government keeps printing money interest rates will most certainly rise. If businesses can't borrow money job growth won't happen. It all depends on our current batch of leaders and how they handle the current problems. If they do a good job we'll come out of this sooner rather than later. If they get it wrong, all bets are off. But if you are in a position to buy a home in Alamo, now may be a great time. Prices and interest rates are low but no one knows for how long. Find a great agent with knowledge of the market and proceed with caution.