Michael Haltman

The Political and Financial Markets Commentator

If you don't get it delivered to your inbox or feed, these are the stories you missed this week:

Is Your Stock Analyst Smarter Than A Fifth Grader?

Change Will Make Them Women And Men

Would You Buy A Used Car From This Man

Is A GM Bankruptcy Good For Anyone?

AIG Needs Just A Little Bit More

Bias Confirmation From An Unlikely Source

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Mike Haltman

Please visit The Political and Financial Markets Commentator at http://politicsandfinance.blogspot.com.

Friday, November 7, 2008

I Want A Bailout Too

Where Do I Get My Bailout?

1. Slowing sales
   
   
   
   
2. Cash burn
   
   
   
   
3. Growing liabilities
   
   
   
   
4. Difficulty getting customers financing
   
   
   
   
5. Negative impact on business from declining consumer confidence
   
   
   
   
6. Growing inventory due to slowing sales
   
   
   
   
7. Negative impact on employees and suppliers if business continues to deteriorate
   
   
   
   
8. Poor business decisions, failure to recognize and adapt to changing markets, bloated infrastructure, high level of employee entitlements, etc.
   
9. Liquidity issues

Other than #8, is this a description of my business, your business, the business next door? I think at this point it is a description of the majority of businesses. Who deserves a government bailout? Who is to big to fail? Whose failure would create to large a ripple effect on the rest of the economy?

Who is the arbiter of all of this? If I have a business that exhibits the attributes of #8, do I deserve to be given the largess of the taxpayer?

The Big Three

Unfortunately for you and I, we are not to big to fail and no one in government is realistically going to come to our rescue. The auto companies, hat in hand, will no doubt be given some type of a rescue package.

Auto manufacturing is a very difficult and highly competitive business, particularly since we can not really compete with the foreign manufacturers that build their cars in the States, with the quickly changing technology, consumer confidence at multi-year lows, demand for alternative fuels, on price and the financing crisis that leaves eager buyers unable to buy the cars.

What we, the people need to make sure of (particularly since they will be using our money to do it), is that this money given to the auto makers in whatever form it is, comes with an incredible amount of strings attached that will force them to make the tough choices and the serious structural changes required so that we will hopefully not have to do this again.

Just like you and I have got to do without a government bailout, auto companies need to get lean, get mean and make good business decisions. Is that to much to ask?

If you ever wanted to know what this type of lending is all about, whether as a borrower or as an investor, I wrote a short article on the topic at http://ezinearticles.com/?id=1652456 .

Check it out, and if you have any thoughts, comments or questions please let me know. Particularly in this banking environment, where even the most pristine borrowers can have real problems getting financing, bridge lending offers a real alternative.

If you are an investor interested in new ways to deploy your money, bridge lending, or lending secured by real property, can be a great alternative.

Mike Haltman

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Democrat or Democratic?

Early Election Night Thoughts

It's about 4 PM EST and I just finished voting. I am listening to some commentary on the radio and the speaker is referring to the party that is not Republican, as the the Democratic party, and those running for office within it as democratic candidates. I have heard all of this before, and the point is that words need to be used more carefully.

Is It Democrat or Democratic Party?

I am not usually a stickler for words, but this is an interesting question. I went to dictionary.com, and the definition for democrat is:

• democrat: a member of the Democratic party.

By the same token, the definition for democratic is:

• democratic:
  a. of, pertaining to, or characteristic of the Democratic party. This is a not so subtle difference. A democrat is a member of the Democrat party, and democratic is exhibiting the characteristics of the Democratic party. More than that, democratic is "pertaining to or of the nature of democracy or a democracy."
  
  When the Democrat party is referred to in the same sentence as the Republican party, but is referred to as the Democratic party, is the Democrat party being given the superior position as the party that believes more in the democratic process than the other?
  
  I am sure that in the majority of cases the choice of words or phrases are done in a completely innocent way, in that the term democratic rolls off of the tongue much more smoothly than democrat. The point is that it should be used correctly.
  
  It might sound like an insignificant point, but it really isn't.
  
  Let The Results Begin!!! (8:00 PM EST it is McCain 21, Obama 3. To early to call)

Why The Senate Result On Tuesday May Be Most Critical

Originally uploaded by tgbusill

Electoral Map

Where should your state be?

Election Day Is Here!!

It's the day we've been waiting for o' these many months. Who is going to win the presidency? Will it be Obama or McCain? The truth is, if Obama does win the more critical votes are going to be in the Senate, as that is where we may have the situation where Democrats control both the White House and Senate.

If there is a groundswell for the Democrats as some anticipate, and they get to a 60 seats in the Senate, they will have a filibuster proof majority. What this means is that they will be able to pound through any legislation that they want with the Republicans in no position to stop it.

What The Senate Race Looks Like

Going through the predictions from various sources, the total for the Democrats coming out of the vote could be anywhere from 57-59, with few predicting the magic number of 60. One thing we know however, is that we are not arrogant enough to think that we know anything. This number could fall out anywhere.

It will be a long day and night tomorrow, with Senate races in Alaska, Minnesota, Georgia and Kentucky some of the more interesting ones. In Alaska, Senator Ted Stevens, who was recently convicted on 7 counts of making false statements, remains in the race. He has always won by a wide margin, but I wouldn't look for that tomorrow.