Michael Haltman

Monday, October 13, 2008

Stocks, Credit Markets and the Man

Who Is The Man?

I am watching and listening, trying to figure it out. Watching the markets and the news flow. Listening to the politicians, government spokespeople and the talking heads of business news. If I can figure this puzzle out, it will tell me where we are going. Then I will tell you.

LIBOR

Watching LIBOR, the indicator of banks willingness to lend to each other, I see a 7 bp move down to approximately 4.75. This is the largest move down in many months, but I would have hoped for a little bit more given the fact that the governments in Europe have pledged to guarantee the loans made between banks. Maybe we are waiting for the US to make the same pledge. Read the rest of the story at The Political and Financial Markets Commentator at http://politicsandfinance.blogspot.com

It's A New Week: Pleasure Or Pain?

We Got Through The Weekend... Almost

I am watching a little football, doing a little work around the house, and at the same time keeping my eye on the business wires to see if there are any new developments around the world that could impact the stock markets, but more importantly the credit markets and the willingness of the banks to lend to each other as well as to us, the rank and file citizens currently paying the price.

I was not happy on Friday night listening to Chairman Paulson, or Saturday morning listening to President Bush give a brief update in front of the G-7 leaders. It all sounded like so much of an outline to potential solutions that could be put in place, instead of a firm and definite plan that was set to be implemented. For the rest of the story, please visit The Political and Financial Markets Commentator at http://politicsandfinance.blogspot.com

Saturday, October 11, 2008

What's In A Name? Turns Out A Lot

The Commercial Mortgage and Political Hotline: The Name Is Obsolete

When I first decided to write a blog, I initially wanted to provide a forum to discuss the commercial mortgage and real estate markets, and provide insights to training and market trends.

As I am sure that you have noticed, the nature of the blog has taken a detour, and has become more of a discussion of politics, the world and the financial marketplace. Part of this has been a function of the incredible amount of flux in the world, and part has been the fact that the mortgage and real estate markets are hostage to these arenas.


Where Do We Go From Here?

First I want to thank all of my email subscribers and feed subscribers for having an interest in what I have to say and the way that I present it.

I have always had my opinions and views of our politicians and the world at large, have written opinion pieces and letters to the editor, and have found this blogging opportunity to be a great forum.

None of this is going to change, but what is going to change, for the final time, is the title of the blog. You will still receive my insight and commentary on the actions of our poltiticians, the performance and trends in the financial markets and how I see it affecting us all.

As I said before, being new to the world of blogging, I didn't really understand the importance of the title, but do now, as this is the way that people identify you and your subject matter. Going forward, the name of The Commercial Mortgage and Political Hotline, will be:

The Political and Financial Markets Commentator at http://politicsandfinance.blogspot.com.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Good Thing I Work On The First Floor?

Anyone can take a look at the action today, yesterday, the day before...well you get the idea, and say that there is no end in sight and that gloom and pessimism will rule the day. Very logical, and I will get to that after I begin with the fact that I believe the global governments will get this right. After all, even a broken clock is right twice a day.

First, Is There A Light At The End Of The Tunnel?

On the bright side, the solution to loosening up the credit markets will be found, hopefully sooner than later, and the recession resulting from all of this will hopefully be short and shallow. The government is throwing the kitchen sink at this problem, and will find the right combination. The incredible amount of cash that is sitting on the sidelines will pounce on stocks and real assets, and we will see a ferocious amount of buying.

There will come a time when this debacle will be a fading memory, and fortunes will be made off of the bottom. There won't be a whistle or a bell telling you when that is, and sometimes when things are the darkest and fear the greatest you have to hold your nose and take the plunge. For the rest of this story, as well as a look at the downside, please visit The Commercial Mortgage and Political Hotline at http://commercialmortgagehotline.blogspot.com.

Another Day, Another Move To Save The Financial System

Today we got the news that many in the markets have been waiting for. They have been waiting for what seems to be a very long time. That was the coordinated global rate cut by the central banks of the US, Canada, EU, England as well as a few other countries. EU rates have been to high and still remain that way even post cut.

As I discussed yesterday morning, we had an immediate strong move up in the stock futures, a quick and severe fade and several other moves all before the market opened. After that it was schizophrenic trading all day until the stock market indicators finally finished in the red for the nth day in a row. The end of the day move lower seemed to coincide with a speech being given by Bernanke.

As far as indicators of stock market volatility and fear go, the VIX ended at over 57, which is historically an extremely high number.

Post cut, the TED Spread also remained at an extremely high historical number of 3.75, ending the day at 3.57.

What is the message of the markets?

Read the rest of the story at The Commercial Mortgage and Political Hotline at http://commercialmortgagehotline.blogspot.com