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Brenda Prowse

Silverdale real estate market conditions - January 2008

Please keep in mind that it's the first month of a new year, so the year-to-date numbers may be quite variable compared to last month. Homes in Silverdale were selling for a median price of about $397,500 at the end of January, up about 40% from a year ago (this is a case where the low number of new year sales distorts the picture). The Kitsap County median closed sale price has fallen less than 1% over the past year. The number of YTD closed sales was down 50% from a year ago, compared to a drop in closed sales of 24% for the County as a whole. The number of pending sales YTD is down 17% from a year ago. The number of active listings in Silverdale (101) is 10% higher than a year ago, and it's also 10% higher than it was at the end of December. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 14 months.

Housing Affordability

In the Kitsap County real estate market, we have been monitoring how affordability has improved for conforming conventional borrowers as a result of the reduction in median sales price and rates. Affordability for that class of buyer (admittedly limited) has improved to mid 2004 levels with the reduction in median sales price and rates.

While many pundits have argued that the relationship of median home prices to median incomes must be restored (for instance one study cites that the median home price should be about 2.8 times the median income) the NAR has argued that we should be paying more attention to the monthly mortgage payment in relation to median income. With home prices steady or falling, mortgage interest rates down significantly, and income generally trending upward, we found that our market was returning to affordability much more quickly than many articles have predicted. This doesn’t provide much relief for subprime or jumbo loan borrowers, but it’s a start.

Interesting that we haven’t yet seen any further reduction in the posted 30 year conforming rate since the recent lowering of the Federal Funds Rate. We also note that the median sales price for closed Kitsap residential sales in January appears to be headed back to the levels of last October (now about $288k, when in November and December it was about $265k) - away from affordability.

Silverdale Real Estate Market Report - December 2007

Homes in Silverdale were selling for a median price of about $318,500 at the end of December, up about 1% from a year ago. The number of YTD closed sales was down 3.7% from a year ago, compared to a drop in closed sales of 18% for the County as a whole. The number of pending sales YTD is up 1.6% from a year ago. The number of active listings in Silverdale (101) is about the same as a year ago. This inventory is now falling as homeowners are taking their properties off the market for the Holidays. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 6 months.

Poulsbo Real Estate Market Report - December 2007

Homes in Poulsbo were selling for a median price of about $355,000 at the end of December, up about 1.4% from a year ago. Kitsap County median prices were up 6% over the past year. The number of closed sales YTD has increased 13% compared to last year, and the number of YTD pending sales has increased 31%, though a large portion of that increase is from presales of one moderately priced new construction development - homes that never appeared as active listings. The Poulsbo listing inventory (118) has risen by 17% compared to a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 6.6 months. Calculating inventory turnover in this manner is artificially low since a number of the new construction homes closing did not show as active listings. Of 45 current pending sales, 40 are new construction. Of 63 non-new construction active listings in Poulsbo, only 7 closed last month, making the inventory turnover rate 9 months.

North Kitsap Real Estate Market Report - December 2007

Using the example of Kingston - the largest housing market in North Kitsap - homes were selling for a median price of about $357,250 at the end of December, up about 7% from a year ago. Kingston prices fluctuate more than some of the other markets because of the lower listing and sales volume. Kitsap County median prices were up 6% over the past year. The YTD number of closed sales is down 18% from a year ago, and the YTD number of pending sales is down 11%. The number of closed sales is down 18% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (75) is up 32% from a year ago, and the inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 25 months.