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Helen Oliveri

Tax break for buying a home

The legislation also would extend the $8,000 homebuyer tax credit to contracts signed by April 30 and closed by June 30. The controversial credit, which many say has boosted home sales in recent months, was set to expire after Nov. 30.

The Senate's bill also created a $6,500 credit for those who buy a home after owning one for the last five years. That measure would apply to contracts signed by April 30 and closed by June 30. The current credit defines a first-time homebuyer as someone who has not owned a residence within the past three years.

The Senate bill would raise the adjusted gross income cap to $125,000 for single filers and $225,000 for joint filers. The amount of the credit currently begins to phase out for taxpayers whose adjusted gross income is more than $75,000, or $150,000 for joint filers.

"It's gonna put people back to work, the home builders, put people in the real estate business," said Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn. "The kind of jobs that can make a difference."

The extension will cost $10.8 billion over 10 years, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation.

Through mid-September, 1.4 million tax returns had qualified for the credit, according to the IRS. Some portion of those returns, which the IRS couldn't specify, represents buyers who took advantage of an earlier version of the tax credit, which was only worth $7,500 and has to be repaid over time.

By the end of November, the credit will have been used by 1.8 million homebuyers, at least 355,000 of whom would not have bought a house without the tax break, according to estimates by the National Association of Realtors.

"The data on the present home buyer tax credit show that the credit has had its intended impact -- sales have jumped in recent months to a projected 5.1 million for the year and housing inventory has been trimmed, thus stabilizing home prices noticeably," said Ron Phipps, the association's first vice president, in Senate testimony last month.

The credit, however, has also posed many problems. Critics say it's a waste of money because most of those claiming the credit would have bought homes anyway.

It's also been the target of fraud. Some 74,000 people claimed more than $500 million in credits even though they may not be first-time homeowners, according to Treasury officials. And more than 580 children, including some as young as 4-years-old, have claimed the credit.

"Some key controls were missing to prevent an individual from erroneously or fraudulently claiming the Credit and receiving an erroneous refund of up to $8,000," said J. Russell George, Treasury inspector general for tax administration, before a House subcommittee last month.

CNN Radio Capitol Hill correspondent Lisa Desjardins contributed to this report.

Real Estate Outlook: Case-Shiller Index

If you look at the latest Case-Shiller home price index numbers, which showed prices up in seventeen of the twenty markets it tracks and the fourth straight month of gains, you'd have to say: wow, how things have changed!

Even the gloomiest of the major indexes is now documenting month after month that housing not only bottomed out earlier this year, but is steadily racking up price gains.

But hold on, this week's numbers get better than that: According to the National Association of Realtors, resales of existing homes jumped sharply last month, up a very robust 9.4 percent during September.

Sales around the country were 9.2 percent higher than they were during September of 2008 -- pushed this year by first-time home purchasers looking to nail down contracts to qualify for the $8,000 tax credit that's scheduled to end in less than four weeks.

Still more good news: Inventories of unsold homes fell just about everywhere, averaging about an eight month supply in September, down from a 9 month supply in August. A six to seven month supply is considered a balanced market … so we're almost there.

Add in mortgage rates averaging 5 percent for a 30 year fixed mortgage and four and a half percent for a 15 year loan, and you can see why applications for new loans to purchase houses were up by nearly five percent last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's national survey.

And as icing on the cake -- GDP or gross domestic product -- the barometer measuring the nation's overall economic health -- grew by three and a half percent in the third quarter, thereby officially ending the "great recession" we've been suffering through for the past two years.

So absolutely, there's a lot of positive news out there this week.

But not all the news has been good. As we've said here at Realty Times before, the marketplace is complex -- and the arrows usually don't ALL point in one direction.

And that is certainly true this week: New home sales dropped unexpectedly by more than three and a half percent in September. And consumer confidence dropped for the second straight month, according to the Conference Board, mainly because of fears about continuing job losses.

Both of those are troubling developments, no question, and the unemployment situation is obviously a major drag on the economy and housing.

But, as the reports on prices, mortgage rates, GDP and existing home sales show -- there's plenty of action out there, and the housing recovery is well underway -- even if it sputters here and there.

K. Harney

Washington Report: Extending the Credit

Don't bet all your money on it quite yet, but it looks more and more likely that Congress will extend the housing tax credit beyond its scheduled termination date - and maybe even open it up to people who already own homes.

Late last week a bipartisan plan emerged in the Senate that would continue the $8,000 credit for first time purchasers beyond November 30, but would create a new, smaller credit of $6,500 for people who've owned and lived in their houses for five consecutive years and now want to buy another as their principal residence.

Under one version of the Senate plan, which reportedly has the support of top Democrats including Majority Leader Senator Harry Reid, the current $8,000 credit for first-timers would effectively be extended through next June 30.

However, buyers would need to have their contracts signed by April 30 and closed by July 1.

The credit program would also be opened up to a restricted segment of current home owners, those with at least five years in their current residences, but with the maximum tax credit amount capped at $6,500.

That would still be enough, sponsors of the plan believe, to encourage people now on the sidelines to get into the market for new and existing homes in early 2010 -- and thereby help stimulate the economy and create jobs.

The Senate plan would also raise household incomes limits for the credit to $125,000 for single buyers and $250,000 for married couples - far more generous than the current $75,000 and $150,000 maximums.

Extending the $8,000 credit, as it is now, has heavy bipartisan support on the House side as well. But key Democratic leaders there -- and at the Obama White House -- are concerned about the costs.

The current $8,000 credit costs the Treasury about a billion dollars a month in lost tax revenues, according to Congressional budget estimates. Opening up the program to existing home owners - even in a restricted way -- would add to that cost.

On the other hand, limiting any extension to six months would be less expensive than a full-year extension, as advocated by major housing lobbies, including the National Association of Realtors and the National Association of Home Builders.

So the issue on Capitol Hill appears to boil down to this: It's not so much a question of whether to extend the credit. Absent a political train wreck, the credit should survive beyond November 30

But for how long, and for whom, are the questions still not nailed down?

We'll keep you up to date.

K. Harney

Washington Report: Extending the Credit

Don't bet all your money on it quite yet, but it looks more and more likely that Congress will extend the housing tax credit beyond its scheduled termination date - and maybe even open it up to people who already own homes.

Late last week a bipartisan plan emerged in the Senate that would continue the $8,000 credit for first time purchasers beyond November 30, but would create a new, smaller credit of $6,500 for people who've owned and lived in their houses for five consecutive years and now want to buy another as their principal residence.

Under one version of the Senate plan, which reportedly has the support of top Democrats including Majority Leader Senator Harry Reid, the current $8,000 credit for first-timers would effectively be extended through next June 30.

However, buyers would need to have their contracts signed by April 30 and closed by July 1.

The credit program would also be opened up to a restricted segment of current home owners, those with at least five years in their current residences, but with the maximum tax credit amount capped at $6,500.

That would still be enough, sponsors of the plan believe, to encourage people now on the sidelines to get into the market for new and existing homes in early 2010 -- and thereby help stimulate the economy and create jobs.

The Senate plan would also raise household incomes limits for the credit to $125,000 for single buyers and $250,000 for married couples - far more generous than the current $75,000 and $150,000 maximums.

Extending the $8,000 credit, as it is now, has heavy bipartisan support on the House side as well. But key Democratic leaders there -- and at the Obama White House -- are concerned about the costs.

The current $8,000 credit costs the Treasury about a billion dollars a month in lost tax revenues, according to Congressional budget estimates. Opening up the program to existing home owners - even in a restricted way -- would add to that cost.

On the other hand, limiting any extension to six months would be less expensive than a full-year extension, as advocated by major housing lobbies, including the National Association of Realtors and the National Association of Home Builders.

So the issue on Capitol Hill appears to boil down to this: It's not so much a question of whether to extend the credit. Absent a political train wreck, the credit should survive beyond November 30

But for how long, and for whom, are the questions still not nailed down?

We'll keep you up to date.

K. Harney

Media Dropping Ball on Housing-Market Trends

I clicked a link to the Wall Street Journal's market data chart, called the Hagerty's Quarterly Housing Report and was really taken aback by what they are reporting in the Washington, D.C. area (my home base).

Again, they have labeled our market as a "buyers" market and reported that more foreclosures are on the way. The problem I have with both those statements is that

* they are created out of data provided by the real estate industry; and

* they are accurate, but not truly reflective.

The real estate industry is its worst enemy when it comes to reporting sales data to the media and, ergo, the public. The reporters call, asking for the latest sales information and that's exactly what we hand them, latest solds, the houses that actually settled in the last month.

Then the media take that report and extrapolate a trend (in their minds) of what's going to happen in the local markets. The problem is they are usually wrong. The Journal's report is a good example. While they are reporting that the Washington, D.C. market has a 6.4 months supply (considered a normal to buyer market) any agent working the Washington suburbs will tell you that is far from the truth. We are sitting on hardly any inventory and in many of our pocket markets, we have just a few days' supply, much less weeks.

Split it up by price range, and some communities have less than 7 days' supply. The houses come on and sell in a day at or above listing price. The challenge for the media (or something they refuse to really look at) is that when they go to these "local" MLS organizations that serve a particular metropolitan area, they just lump it all in the same bowl and come out with one large biscuit and label it Chicago; or Washington, DC; or Big City Name here.

If you know the geography of Washington DC, then you'll probably be a little confused when you find out what's included in our MLS: Parts of Pennsylvania, Delaware and West Virginia. If those areas are included, then, yes, the DC market has a 6.4 months' supply.

In Pennsylvania there's an absorption rate of 13.5 months currently. In W.Va., it's a 10.8 months' supply and in Delaware, those good people have a 12.7 months' supply.

Right around the Beltway, however, which is DC-proper, the absorption rate is at 2.8 months. (That would be only Active properties, divided by pending sales written in the last 30 days). A buyer can see all the homes in their price range in about 15 minutes because there just aren't enough houses on the market.

So when the consumers around Washington (or Miami, Chicago, New York, etc.) read about the months' supply on Hagerty's Quarterly Housing Report in the Wall Street Journal – what's an agent to do? Who's the buyer going to believe – the Wall Street Journal, or the agent driving them around trying to sell them a house and earn a commission.

I mean, hey, what would the agent know? They just look at me as a big fat commission check, right? The market is turning in many metropolitan areas around the country – DC is at the head of the curve and many will follow. (In fact, at this writing, foreclosures make up only 18 percent of Fairfax County – one of the larges suburban markets in the DC area – 82% are regular sales.) But before you swallow the charts from the Big Media about absorption rates, talk with the agent who's actually working the area.

M. Anthony Carr