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Helen Oliveri

Real Estate Outlook: Recession is Over

Now it's official. The chairman of the Federal Reserve Board himself has said it publicly that it looks like the recession is over.

Here comes the recovery.

But there was a big footnote in Bernanke's speech on the economy last week in Washington: Don't look for a dramatic recovery.

It'll be more like a slow moving, plodding sort of improvement where the economy inches toward expansion. But there'll be no sudden, splashy return to economic boomtime anytime soon.

Bernanke's point about the end of the recession was underscored by a 2.7 percent jump in retail sales for the month of August, according to the Commerce Department.

That's an important indicator because the key to pumping up the economy again is to get consumers spending, and that appears to be happening. Not just for auto sales, which got a big boost in August from the government's "cash for clunkers" program, but also for other key categories, like food and clothing purchases, department store retail, entertainment and restaurant spending, sporting goods.

They were all up for the month, after having been mainly down for well over a year.

One reason for the pick-up in consumer spending: People feel more confident about the direction of the economy in the months ahead. They see the stock market up, so their retirement funds and 401 K plans are bouncing back.

They see home values stabilizing or growing in most areas, so their equity is beginning to increase again.

The one big negative -- and it's definitely a drag for housing -- is the unemployment rate, which Mr. Bernanke said won't be coming down fast, even with the end of the recession.

Nonetheless, the vast majority of Americans who do have jobs have seen their real wages rise this year, up five percent. That's the largest annual gain in fifty years.

All of this is feeding into the housing sector in key markets, such as southern California, where August sales were up 11 percent compared with the year before, according to MDA DataQuick. Even prices are rising slightly.

In the combined markets of Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange County, San Bernadino-Riverside and Ventura, the median price of homes sold gained 2.6 percent in August, which is very encouraging for one of the hardest-hit boom-to-bust areas of the country.

Meanwhile, the mortgage market continues to be exceptionally positive for housing sales and values: 30 year fixed rates averaged just above 5 percent last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, and 15 year loans averaged 4.4 percent.

K. Harney

Brushing Up On Money-Saving Painting Tips

A new federal law beginning April 2010 will require all contractors performing renovation, repair and painting projects that disturb lead-based paint in private homes, childcare facilities, and schools (built prior to 1978) to be certified in the prevention of lead contamination.

According to the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) document titled What You Need to Know About Lead Poisoning, "Despite laws established in the 1970s to make people aware of the dangers of lead and its poisonous effects, lead poisoning in children remains a common, yet preventable, environmental health problem in the United States." Heavily-leaded paint is in about two-thirds of homes built prior to 1940 and one-half of homes built from 1940 to 1960, according to the US Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC). "Some homes built after 1960 also contain heavily-leaded paint."

The CPSC recommends that any homes constructed before the 1980s be tested for lead before renovating. You can learn more about lead-based paint by visiting the EPA's website In today's column we'll assume you understand that if you think you have lead-based paint you need to seek expert help before any renovations. Now, we'll tackle the fun stuff: choosing colors that have mass appeal (in case you're selling soon), selecting quality paint, and understanding when to buy paint. For this information we turn to Gabrielle Genevich, branch manager, Sherwin Williams.

Top selling colors, still neutral for mass appeal. "We have a list of our top 50 selling colors. Most are light white or beige. Kilim beige is sort of a light tan color and most often that's what people pick—warm colors that they can use for their entire home," says Genevich.

Genevich says that the new design of homes is what helps to make these neutral colors so popular. "Most of the time people are looking for that one color that they can work throughout their house because so many of the houses now are open and you can see from one room to the next so they want a color that matches everything," she says.

When it comes to selecting color for a specific room, say, the kitchen, Genevich cautions homeowners to not be too tempted by what they see in home makeover magazines. "For instance, people come in and they want a yellow kitchen and they pick out these bright lemon yellows [colors] you see in a magazine and they think it will be amazing in their house but then they get home and it looks like neon yellow. So I always tell people to go for the more muted tones. If you want a bright yellow you might try more of a gold tone, something that is a little more muted so that it doesn't stand out so much. People want to go with big color which is great but you need to do it so that it doesn't overpower everything else," says Genevich. What about paint quality? Do you really need to buy top-of-the line? Surprisingly, Genevich says no. "You don't have to buy the best paint but buying a better paint is going to save you time and money. It's going to save you from having to put three coats on your wall. A better paint will be fast, easy, and error- proof." She suggests buying something in the mid-range for good coverage and value.

"If you have smoke stains on your ceiling you'll want to repaint it but [if that's not the case] you don't need to paint the ceiling to make your house look fresher. You can just do the walls. If you do paint the ceiling you can use a lower-cost interior flat paint," says Genevich.

One final tip before you get started, Genevich says, "Prep work is most important because you don't want paint on your trim, carpet, and floors. Get a good brush and roller that's not going to leave fuzz on your walls.

When's the best time to paint? Well, that's pretty open if it's an interior paint job. However, Genevich has some advice about the best times to buy paint. "Shop around holidays; that's when all the paint stores have good sales." She adds, "If you're going to do a big project where you're painting your interior house it's going to pay to get 25 percent or 30 percent off."

P. Chongchua

Washington Report: Tax Credit Changes

The first major change to the $8,000 home buyers tax credit began moving through Congress last week, giving hope to real estate and building groups pushing for extension of the entire program before it expires Nov. 30.

House Ways and Means Committee chairman, Congressman Charles Rangel, a New York Democrat, combined several smaller bills into the “Service Members Home Ownership Act of 2009” late last week, with a floor vote expected this week.

The bill is intended to correct a flaw in the original tax credit legislation: By requiring buyers to occupy and own their first home for 36 months to fully qualify for the credit, the program creates serious problems when military, Foreign Service and intelligence agency personnel are transferred overseas.

During their absence, they are not occupants of their houses, and sometimes have to rent them out or sell. Any of these events make them ineligible to retain the $8,000 credit under current law. Ineligible buyers must then repay the credit to the IRS.

Oregon Congressman Earl Blumenauer, sponsor of one of the bills consolidated into Rangel's, said “it is absurd that thousands of Americans serving our country, away from friends and family ... must choose between their service work and home ownership.”

The Ways and Means committee's bill would waive the repayment requirement when a service member must sell a home within the 36 month period because of a transfer to a new duty station or overseas, and would count service-related absences toward the 36 month requirement.

Another provision in the bill would extend the $8,000 credit for another year for personnel who may have missed out on claiming the credit because they thought they wouldn't qualify due to an overseas posting.

The credit for these individuals would be extended to November 30, 2010 from November 30, 2009, provided the served outside the U.S. for at least 90 days during calendar year 2009.

The bill, which has bipartisan support, could be sent to the Senate for action as early as next week, Congressional sources told Realty Times.

More important for the housing market overall, however, is the precedent set by the bill's extension of the credit for an extra year. It's not a far leap from that position to a general extension of the entire $8,000 credit program to the same date.

The National Association of Realtors, National Association of Home Builders and the Mortgage Bankers Association jointly sponsored an ad campaign last week aimed at convincing Congress to give the credit program another year.

K. Harney

Long-Term Rates Down for Third Consecutive Week

McLEAN, VA -- Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) in which the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.04 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending September 17, 2009, down from last week when it averaged 5.07 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.78 percent. The last time the 30-year FRM was lower was the week ending May 28, 2009, when it averaged 4.91 percent.

The 15-year FRM this week averaged 4.47 percent with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.50 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.35 percent. This is the lowest the 15-year FRM has been since Freddie Mac started tracking it in 1991.

The five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.51 percent this week, with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.51 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 5.67 percent.

The one-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 4.58 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.64 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 5.03 percent.

"Interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages eased for the third consecutive week and remained at 3-month lows," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. "Interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have averaged just above 5 percent through mid-September, which is roughly a percentage point below last year’s average and suggests that 2009 may reach a record annual low since the survey began in 1971."

"Low mortgage rates are aiding new home construction. Housing starts for single family homes have increased consecutively over the five past months ending in July, although starts eased slightly in August. Moreover, homebuilder confidence improved for the third straight month in September, with all four regions showing positive gains, according the National Association of Home Builder’s Housing Market Index."

Federal Reserve's '5 Tips for Shopping for a Mortgage'

Financing the purchase of a home could be the most complex financial decision you'll every endure.

You need all the help you can get.

To help get you started with the basics, the Federal Reserve offers "5 Tips for Shopping for a Mortgage," because, well, the fundamentals always apply.

Don't bite off more than you can chew. Check your budget. You must have a budget so you can estimate what you can afford to pay for a home, including the mortgage, property taxes, insurance, and monthly maintenance and utilities.

You also have to have enough to save for emergencies. Plan ahead to have enough to afford your monthly mortgage payments for several years. Check your credit report to make sure that the information in it is accurate. A higher credit score may help you get a lower interest rate on your mortgage.

Shop around. Online and off, shop lenders, brokers, credit unions, government (city, county state) programs, even seller financing. Shopping around is a bear, but it can save you thousands of dollars.

Understand costs. Shopping around means scrutinizing loan costs and fees not just the annual percentage rate (APR) On any given day, lenders and brokers may offer different interest rates and fees to different consumers for the same loan, even when those consumers have the same loan qualifications. Keep in mind that lenders and brokers also consider the profit they receive if you agree to the terms of a loan with higher fees, higher points, or a higher interest rate.

Learn risks, benefits of loan options. Mortgages have many features -- fixed interest rates, adjustable rates, payment adjustments, interest-only payments, prepayment penalties, balloon payments and more. Consider all the features, including the APR and the settlement costs.

Have your lender calculate how much your monthly payments could be a year from now, and 5 or 10 years from now. A mortgage shopping worksheet can help you identify the features of different loans. Mortgage calculators can help you compare payments and the equity you could build with different mortgage loans.

Get advice from those you trust. Ask family, friends, co-workers, professional associates and others you trust for referrals. Talk with a trusted housing counselor or a real estate attorney that you hire to review your documents before you sign them. You can find a list of counseling resources at NeighborWorks and on the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's (HUD) website or by calling (800) 569-4287.d

B. Perkins