Thomas Cunningham Coastal Carolina Real Estate Connection

This is an updated Market report by Robert Rauf . He always provides highly informative data tied to Real Estate/ Mortgage Lending. Please check out and Subscribe to his Blog!

• October 27 '08 02:49PM |

This week's Economic calendar.

The markets are dysfunctional; they are totally unhinged and Economic fundamentals no longer apply. So trying to predict what is going to happen next is impossible, even for the seasoned analyst to figure out what the market will do from one day to the next! This week's calendar is loaded up with quite a bit of information for the markets to digest:

• Monday 10/27: September New home Sales, expected down 2.1%. It wasn't expected to move the market, it did not
• Tuesday 10/28: Day one of the Fed FOMC meeting
• Tuesday 10/28: October Consumer Confidence, Expected to be +52 Vs 59.8 last month. Consumer confidence is expected to be low, so we won't be likely to see any reaction to this news
• Wednesday 10/29: Durable Goods orders, expected -1.1%. This report will clarify the extent of the slow down, the weaker the number the slower things are... and the weaker the number the more likely we will see rates creep lower
• Wednesday 10/28 2pm: FOMC meeting ends, market expects a 50bp cut. The market seems to have priced in a 75% chance of a FED cut. With a 50bp move we will not see any reaction in the markets, but if we see a 75bp move (which some predict) we will probably see a happy market with lower rates. BUT, if the FED stands still the market will show its disappointment with a sell off and higher rates.
• Thursday 10/30: GDP expected -0.5%. If the slowdown in the 3^rd quarter is worse than the estimate, Stocks will sell off, and have an opposite effect than what we would normally expect: a simultaneous sell off in the Credit Markets with expectations of deteriorating employment and weakness in Mortgages... making it difficult for mortgage rates to drop further from current levels
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims for previous week, expected down 3,000. A modest decline will not be a recipe for a market mover.
• Thursday: 3^rd quarter employment cost index. Expected +0.7%. The forecast number is considered modest and not likely to be an inflation threat, so not a market mover.
• Friday 10/31. HAPPY Halloween! And September Personal income, spending , PCE. Expected +0.1%, -0.3% and +0.1%. This report is expected to reflect a strong drop in Consumer Spending and weak income and consumption expenditure. In normal times these numbers would cause a rally and lower rates, but it is hard to say what will happen today.

The Biggie of the week is not on the calendar. Fed Chairman Bernake is making a presentation at a symposium on the Mortgage Meltdown, The Economy, and Public Policy. It is his opportunity to calm the nerves of the credit markets and help return some liquidity to the markets in the form of more confident investors buying fixed income securities like Mortgage Backed securities.

Well, That's my 2 cents worth for this week! Rates have climbed a bit from the beginning of last week, but the economic data suggests that we should actually see lower rates. As I started off this note, the markets are not acting in a predictable fashion. So Play it safe this week!

Robert Rauf

Real Estate Mortgage Network

This information is compiled and presented by my Broker in Charge, Mirela Monte

I felt that it would be ecellent information if you are considering buying throughout the Grand Strand Area in South Carolina.

Condos in the Myrtle Beach Area - 3rd Quarter 2008 Report:

Activity for the third Quarter:

Market Overall:

Active: 7,412

Sold: 668

9.01% of the inventory was sold for the quarter.

3% of the inventory was sold per month.

Absorption rate: over 2 years and 9 months.

Myrtle Beach proper:

Active 3,097

Sold: 229

7.39% of the inventory was sold for the quarter.

2.46% of the inventory sold per month.

Absorption rate: 3 years and almost 5 months (to sell out of inventory).

North Myrtle Beach:

Active: 1,273

Sold: 118

9.27% of the inventory was sold for the quarter.

3.09% of the inventory was sold per month.

Absorption rate: a little over 2 years and 8 months.

Surfside - Garden City:

Active: 504

Sold: 55

10.91% of the inventory was sold for the quarter.

3.64% of the inventory was sold per month.

Absorption rate: over 2 years and 3 months.

Litchfield - Pawley's Island:

Active: 424

Sold: 34

8.02% of the inventory was sold for the quarter.

2.67% of the inventory was sold per month.

Absorption rate: over 3 years and 1 month.

Oceanfront Condos:

Myrtle Beach Oceanfront Condos Overall:

Active: 2,568

Sold: 165

6.43% of the inventory was sold for the quarter.

2.14% of the inventory was sold per month.

Absorption rate: 3 years and almost 11 months.

Myrtle Beach Oceanfront Condos:

Active: 1,676

Sold: 99

5.91% of the inventory was sold for the quarter.

1.97% of the inventory was sold per month.

Absorption rate: 4 years and almost 3 months.

North Myrtle Beach Oceanfront Condos:

Active: 672

Sold: 54

8.04% of the inventory was sold for the quarter

2.68% of the inventory was sold per month.

Absorption rate: a little over 3 years and 1 month.

Surfside - Garden City Oceanfront Condos:

Active: 155

Sold: 10

6.45% of the inventory was sold for the quarter.

2.15% of the inventory was sold per month.

Absorption rate: 3 years and almost 11 months.

Litchfield - Pawley's Island Oceanfront Condos:

Active: 63

Sold: 1

1.59% of the inventory was sold for the quarter.

0.53% of the inventory was sold per month.

Absorption rate: 15 years and almost 9 months.

*Note: For the purpose of uniformity I rounded to the nearest figure and expressed the overage with the words "over" or "almost". Ex: 37.45 months were expressed as: over 3 years and 1 month.

**Note: Oceanfront Condos refers to condos located in Oceanfront Buildings.

Today in the Wall Street Journal the headline read,"Bailout Bill Fails in House Vote
Amid Defections in Both Parties"Wow, I'm a bit surprised but quite relived. I had serious doubts about whether this Bill would really help the people that the Government claims it would.

Strangely enough I was reading another Article in WSJ " Rescue Includes Steps to Help Borrowers Keep Homes" and felt compelled to write to the author, "RUTH SIMON"

I would like to share this Letter with all here in ActiveRain and ask all you to chime in and give me your views and opinions:

Good Day Ruth Simon,

I just read your Article and enjoyed it immensely!

I was curious about a few things though and I'm in hopes that you could shed some light on them! So far from what I have been reading in the news(mostly for your Paper " WSJ") is that the Gov. is trying desperately to fix a problem that has grown far too big to begin with! Everything seems to be focused on how they can help current Homeowners(AKA) Taxpayers with their Mortgage issues so that they don't fall into a Foreclosure status. Being a Real Estate Agent in South Carolina, I, on a first-hand basis am seeing foreclosure begin to increase at an alarming rate . We as a company, have been involving ourselves more and more in Foreclosure transactions as well as Short Sales. We receive information monthly from our local County about properties that are coming to full foreclosure in order to be bid on at the County steps by anyone(mostly the Banks). The numbers I have seen since April 08 have steadily increased! In April there were 104 properties foreclosed on, in just one month those numbers jumped to 194 , that's an 87% increase within a mere 30 days! The numbers continued to fluctuate over the next three months holding at and around 190. Just recently, we have received the list of properties that will be foreclose on October 6th and that number has increased now to 224, giving us a 115% increase in foreclosed properties since April 08.

Now, considering that our Gov. is apparently working very hard to stem the very concerns that I'm seeing here on the frontline, I hope that they can come to some conclusion sooner than later as I feel that things will most certainly get far worse before they start to get better.

The other concern that has been rattling around in my head is, has the Gov. even begin to consider how to help the mass number of people that have already had their homes foreclosed on??? These Taxpayers are, first off, now Homeless and secondly have had their Credit dramatically scared for up to Ten Years.

As a whole, since 2003 our economy bolstered due to a consistently increasing Housing Market. Here in Myrtle beach we saw properties reach an apex between 2005 and 2006, with Oceanfront properties leading the way in price increases. All of a sudden, everybody is talking about investing in Real Estate. Flipping properties becomes the new National past-time. Networks like The Discovery Channel, Lifetime and Bravo start coming out with "Real Estate Reality Shows". Companies like "Lowes" and "Home Depot" see record sales as ‘Joe Taxpayer' rushes out to buy home improvement products and materials in order to cash-in on their newly acquired Real Estate investment. So, based on the huge shift we see happening in the Housing Market, everybody begins to rush in and take advantage of all this Money ‘Joe Taxpayer' is willing to spend. Builders & Developers start gobbling up Raw Land like it's going out of style so they can build houses and Communities in large numbers in order to feed the demand. During this process Lenders realize that they too can "Bank-in" on the rush as well and such begins the fledgling ‘Predator-Lending' practices that I believe have gotten us the debacle we in today!

From what I can make out so far on this proposed Bill, is ‘Joe Taxpayer' really the one that will be bailed out or will it simply be the large Banks and Lenders that come out clean?

I would love to hear your thoughts and views on the topics I mentioned above.