Stephen Howell

Alan Greenspan called current conditions a "once in a century credit tsunami". You can read more about Greenspan's comments in front of the House Oversight Committee on the FOXNews Website.

For the sixth month in a row, inventory levels remain above the 4,500 level. In September the number of active units in Anne Arundel County trended down 1.1% and was down 2.0% from last year. The average sold price was $403,687 and was down 8.5% from last year. The pending transaction to active listings ratio was 9.5% up from 9.2% last month.

In Anne Arundel County in September the total sold volume was down 3.9% from August. The average sold price in September was up 7.3% from August. The number of homes sold in September was down 10.4% from August. And, the average days on market in September was up 12.4% from last month.

There were 388 units sold in Anne Arundel County in September, down from 433 units sold in August. The number of active listings was 4,552 in September, down from 4,601 in August. The number of new listings taken in September was 889, up from 861 in August. The number of listings with pending contracts in September was 432, up slightly from 423 in August. The average sold price was $403,687 in September, up from $376,301 in August. The average number of days on market was 136 in September, up from 121 in August. The average list price to sold price ratio was 86.55% in September, down from 90.60% in August. Total sales volume for September was $156.6 million, down from $162.9 million in August.

In Annapolis the total sold volume in September was up 52.4% from August. The average sold price in was up 19.9% in September. And, the number of homes sold in September was up 27.1% from August. And, the average days on market in September was up 19.4% from August.

There were 75 units sold in Annapolis in September, up from 59 sold in August. The number of active listings was 977 in September, about the same as 987 in August. The number of new listings taken in September was 194, up from 170 taken in August. The number of listings with pending contracts in August was 125, up from 92 in August. The average sold price was $553,594 in September, up from $461,751 in August. The average number of days on market was 160 in September, up from 134 in August. The average list price to sold price ratio was 93.83% September, up from 94.74% in August. Total sales volume was $41.5 million in September, up from $27.2 million in August.

So what can we expect for the fourth quarter of 2008? Inventory will start to fall as year-end approaches. New listings will decline as the holidays approach. Pending sales may also decline. The ratio of pending sales to active listings is likely to stay around 1 to 10. And, prices are likely to be soft as the fall selling season comes to a close. There's no tipping point on the horizon when sales might improve. What has to happen? While the number of buyers in the market remains relatively constant at any time and they believe that homes are overpriced and loans are difficult to obtain. Sellers must lower their asking price and do so before their competition. Sellers should take all competition seriously and must price below properties under contract. When the buyers' perception is homes are overpriced, sellers must price their homes to look like a bargain. The lowest price and most favorable terms will result in the fastest sale!

While no one can predict the future with any certainty, one thing is certain; it's a buyer's market. A firm understanding of the market trends and forces is needed to make the best real estate decisions. So, if you are serious about buying or selling a home in today's real estate market, call Stephen Howell, Associate Broker, REALTOR®, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, at 410-923-3217.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes were released on Tuesday, September 30th. According to the data prices the Washington DC metro area fell 15.8% in July 2008 from the same period last year while only falling 1.1% from June 2008. In Anne Arundel County the home price index for July 2008 was down 5.1% from June 2007 but the index was down only 0.1% in July from June. In Annapolis the home-price index was up 1.6% in July 2008 over one year ago and the index was up 1.3% in July over June.

Although the Washington DC metro area S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index is not yet out for August or September - it's published with a two month lag - the Baltimore metro area index is down 3.2% in August 2008 over the same period last year and down 3.2% in September from this time last year. The Anne Arundel County home price index is down 5.6% in August 2008 from the same period a year ago and is down 6.1% this month from the same time last year and is down 0.6% from last month. The Annapolis home price index is up 2.3% in August 2008 from the same period last year and is up 1.0% this month and is up 1.1% from last month.

Since November 2007 the Annapolis home price index has been higher than the Washington DC metro area home price index. The Anne Arundel County home price index has been higher than the Washington DC metro index since July 2008. Both remain higher than the Baltimore metro home price index.

All home price indexes are likely to continue to decline as the end of the spring/summer selling season is nearly upon us. As we transition from fall into winter, the presidential election, the bailout/rescue plan, and other national events will all have an impact on local real estate sales. Once upon a time a booming economy bolstered support for a rapidly appreciating local market. Our market has now been relatively level for two years and is position for another period of appreciation once current events are behind us.

In Conclusion

If you are thinking about buying or selling a home or know someone who is, for a confidential, private, professional consultation without any obligation to discuss today's real estate market, please contact Stephen Howell at 410-923-3217.

While summer turns fall without fail, there is no sign of change in the local real estate market. Although outdoor temperatures are not nearly as chilly as sellers think, buyers have rarely enjoyed a better climate. Buyers have the upper hand with little competition, lots of inventory to choose from, and government sponsored incentives to name just a few.

In Anne Arundel County in August the total sold volume was down 30.8% from August 2007. The average sold price was down 5.0% from last year. The number of homes sold was 27.1% from last year. The average days on market was up 27.4% from August 2007.

There were 433 units sold in Anne Arundel County in August, up from 411 units sold in July. The number of active listings was 4,601 in August, down from 4,699 in July. The number of new listings taken in August was 861, down from 959 in July. The number of pending sales was 423 in August, down from 462 in July. The average sold price was $376,301 in August, down from $397,081 in July. The average number of days on market was 121 in August, down from 125 in July. The average list price to sold price ratio was 90.60% in August, down from 90.86% in July. Total sales volume in August was $162.9 million, down from $163.2 in July.

In Annapolis in August the total sold volume was down 47.8% from August 2007. The average sold price was down 0.9% from last year. The number of homes sold was down 48.2% from last year. The average days on market was up 21.4% from August 2007.

There were 59 units sold in Annapolis in August, down from 76 units sold in July. The number of active listings was 987 in August, down from 997 in July. The number of new listings taken in August was 170, down from 195 in July. The number of pending sales was 92 in August, down from 104 in July. The average sold price was $461,751 in August, down from $527,212 in July. The average number of days on market was 134 in August, down from 147 in July. The average list price to sold price ratio was 94.74% in August, down from 95.10% in July. Total sales volume in August was $27.2 million, down from $40.1 million in July.

So what can we expect for the fourth quarter of 2008? Inventory, new listings and pending sales will decline. There's no tipping point on the horizon when sales might improve. What has to happen? While the number of buyers in the market remains relatively constant, they believe that homes are overpriced. Sellers should lower their asking price to maintain the best position in their marketplace, take competition seriously and price below homes under contract. When the buyers' perception is homes are overpriced, sellers must price their home to look like a bargain. The lowest price and most favorable terms will result in the fastest sale!

While no one can predict the future with any certainty, one thing is certain; it's a buyer's market. A firm understanding of the market trends and forces is needed to make the best real estate decisions. So, if you are serious about buying or selling a home in today's real estate market, call Stephen Howell, Associate Broker, REALTOR^®, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, at 410-923-3217.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes were released on Tuesday. Prices in the Metro-Washington DC area fell 15.7% in June 2008 versus the same period last year while only falling 0.9% from May 2008. In Anne Arundel County the home price index (caluclated using a similar methodology to the Case-Shiller index) for June 2008 was down 2.3% was down from June 2007 and the index was up 3.0% in June from May. In Annapolis the home-price index (again, caluclated using a similar methodology to the Case-Shiller index) was up 6.8% in June 2008 over one year ago while the the index was up 11.0% in June over May.

Although the Washington DC Metro S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index is not yet out for July 2008, the Anne Arundel County home price index is down 5.1% in July 2008 from July 2007 and is down 0.1% from July 2008 from June 2008. The July 2008 Annapolis home price index was up 1.6% from July 2007 and was up 1.3 from June 2007.

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Since November of 2007 the Annapolis home price index has been higher than the Metro Washington DC home price index. The Anne Arundel County home price index has now been higher than the Washington metro index since July 2008. This suggests that while metro area prices continue to decline, Anne Arundel County and Annapolis prices remain more stable.

While no one can predict the future with any certainty, one thing is certain - it remains a buyer's market. Buyers have large numbers of desirable properties from which to choose and sellers have lots of competition. A firm understanding of the market trends and forces is necessary for making the best real estate decisions.

So, if you are serious about buying or selling a home in today's real estate market, for a no-obligation confidential and professional consultation contact Stephen Howell, Associate Broker, REALTOR^®, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, 410-923-3217.