Stephen Howell

For the fourth month in a row, inventory levels were above the 4,500 level. In July the number of active units in Anne Arundel County trended down 0.6% but was up 9.1% from last year. The average sold price dropped below $400,000 and was down 8.5% from last year. The pending transaction to active listings ratio was 9.8% - about the same as last month but down 30.8% from last year. So, how much worse will it get? Well, that's anyone's guess.

In Anne Arundel County in July the total sold volume was down 20.0% from June. The average sold price in July was down 7.1% from June. The number of homes sold in July was down 13.8% from June. And, the average days on market in July was unchanged from June.

There were 411 units sold in Anne Arundel County in July, up from 411 units sold in June. The number of active listings was 4,699 in July, down from 4,729 in June. The number of new listings taken in July was 959, down from 993 in June. The number of listings with pending contracts in July was 462, up slightly from 452 in June. The average sold price was $397,081 in July, down from $427,655 in June. The average number of days on market was 125 in July, unchanged from June. The average list price to sold price ratio was 90.86% in July, up slightly from 90.46% in June. Total sales volume for July was $163.2 million in July, down from $204.0 million in June.

In Annapolis the total sold volume in July was down 17.1% from June. The average sold price in July was down 16.0% from June. And, the number of homes sold in July was down 1.3% from June. And, the average days on market in July was down7.9% from June.

There were 76 units sold in Annapolis in July, down slight from 77 units sold in June. The number of active listings was 997 in July, up from 967 in June. The number of new listings taken in July was 195, up slight from 190 taken in June. The number of listings with pending contracts in July was 104, down slightly from 125 in June. The average sold price was $527,212 in July, down from $627,710 in June. The average number of days on market was 147 in July, down from 160 in June. The average list price to sold price ratio was 95.10% in July, up slight from 94.37% in June. Total sales volume was $40.1 million in July, down from $48.3 million in June.

So what can we expect for the third quarter of 2008? Inventory will continue to increase. New listings may decline. Pending sales may decline. The ratio of pending sales to active listings may decline and prices may drop further. There's no tipping point on the horizon when sales might improve. What has to happen? While the number of buyers in the market remains relatively constant at any time and they believe that homes are overpriced. Sellers must lower their asking price and do so before their competition. Sellers should take all competition seriously and must price below properties under contract. When the buyers' perception is homes are overpriced, sellers must price their homes to look like a bargain. The lowest price and most favorable terms will result in the fastest sale!

While no one can predict the future with any certainty, one thing is certain; it's a buyer's market. A firm understanding of the market trends and forces is needed to make the best real estate decisions. So, if you are serious about buying or selling a home in today's real estate market, call Stephen Howell, Associate Broker, REALTOR^®, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, at 410-923-3217.

Active inventory continues to increase, while new listings continue to decrease and pending sales also decline. The trend established more than two years ago continues. Pending sales declined 22.6% from this time last year. While new listings declined 23.8% from last year and active listings were up 4.3% over May 2007. In May 2008, the ratio of active listings to pending sales was 11.0%, only a slight change from April when the ratio was 11.1%. The ratio was 14.8% in May 2007, 20.7% in May 2006, and 67.3% in May 2005. The declining ratio indicates that buyers perceive the real estate market as over priced. Resistant sellers are failing to get their homes sold. Those sellers that price below market are generating traffic and multiple offers while overpriced listings sit without offers.

In Anne Arundel County the total sold volume was down 19.7% from this time last year. The average sold price was down a modest 3.3% from May 2007. The number of homes sold was down 29.3% and the average days on market was up 42.4% from last year.

There were 407 units sold in Anne Arundel County in May 2008, down slightly from 420 units sold in April. The number of active listings was 4,629 in May, up from 4,563 in April. The number of new listings taken in May was 1,080, down from 1,236 taken in April. The number of listings with pending contracts in May was 509, about the same as 505 last month. The average sold price was $399,726 in May, up slightly from $398,231 in April. The average number of days on market was 144 in May, up from 137 in April. The average list price to sold price ratio was 91.34% in May, up from 89.79% in April. Total sales volume for May was $162.7 million, down from $167.3 million in April.

In Annapolis the total sold volume was down 21.4% from this time last year. The average sold price was down only 1.1% from this time last year. And, the number of homes sold was down 43.9% and the average days on market was up 62.8% from May of last year.

There were 64 units sold in Annapolis in May, up from 55 units sold in April. The number of active listings was 966 in May, up from 946 in April. The number of new listings taken in May was 218, down from 274 in April. The number of listings with pending contracts in May was 144, up slightly from 132 last month. The average sold price was $531,736 in May, up from $505,551 in April. The average number of days on market was 189 in May, up from 161 in April. The average list price to sold price ratio was 95.2% in May, up from 91.6% in April. Total sales volume in May was $34.0 million, up from $27.8 million in April.

According to www.BankRate.com, the average national rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages is at 6.29%, up from 5.8% this time last month. The National Average Composite Mortgage Rate is 6.1% for May.

According to www.RealtyTrac.com, the number of pre-foreclosures in Anne Arundel County was 481 in May, up from in April. The number of auction properties in the county was 189 in May, down from 289 in March. And, the number of bank owned properties was 294 in May, up from 277 in April.

So what can we expect for the start of the third quarter 2008? Inventory will continue to increase. New listings will decline. Pending sales will decline. While the ratio of pending sales to active listings will continue to decline and prices will decline further. There's no tipping point on the horizon when sales might improve. What has to happen to increased sales? While the number of buyers in the market remains relatively constant, buyers believe that homes are overpriced. Sellers must make dramatic adjustments in asking price and do so before their competition. Sellers should take all competition seriously and must price below properties under contract and look only at property sold within the last 90 days when making pricing decisions. When the buyers' perception is homes are overpriced, sellers must price their home to look like a bargain. The lowest price and most favorable terms will result in the fastest sale!

While no one can predict the future with any certainty, one thing is certain; it remains a buyer's market. Buyers have large numbers of desirable properties from which to choose and sellers have lots of competition. A firm understanding of the market trends and forces is necessary for making the best real estate decisions.

So, if you are serious about buying or selling a home in today's real estate market, contact Stephen Howell, Associate Broker, REALTOR^®, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, at 410-923-3217, www.LiveInAnnapolis.com.

Now is the time to sell. If this was the stock market you would execute a stop loss order and lock in your profit before the price per share fell further. But this is the real estate market and not the stock market so it is not as simple as calling your stock broker or going online and placing the order to sell. Besides, if you could sell your home as fast as you can sell your shares of IBM online, where would you move? Furthermore, perhaps you should have sold in mid-2005 when the real estate market was up because now the real estate market is down. So timing the real estate market is more difficult than you think. But the writing was on the wall as we came out of 2005 and started the spring market of 2006.

Let's face it, we're in a declining real estate market. Prices continue to fall as more inventory comes to market. There is hope on the way but will it come soon enough? With elections in November and BRAC about a year away, we may have between 18 and 24 more months before the market starts a rebound. Until such time as more homes come off the market than come on, the current situation is likely to remain the same or worsen. During each of the last three years inventory levels declined as summer sales increased but not as deeply as the year before, thus, leaving more inventory on market that there was previously.

So, are you willing to wait several years for the market to recover before you sell your home? If prices trend down and we're not at the bottom of the market yet, how long will you have to wait in order to sell again at today's price? It could be several years, perhaps 2010 or 2011. You could be very lucky if you traded up or invested in rental property today rather than wishing later that you had done so back in 2008!

Now may be the very best time to purchase a new home if you are thinking about trading up because buying in a down market increases your purchasing power. And, you should be better off since you're likely to live in your home seven to eleven years and have all that time for future market appreciation to work its magic.

In Conclusion

If you are thinking about buying or selling a home or know someone who is, for a confidential, private, professional consultation without any obligation to discuss today's real estate market, please contact Stephen Howell at 410-923-3217.

In April 2005 in Anne Arundel County the ratio of pending sales to active listings was 65.8%. In April 2007 the ratio was 11.1%. This ratio has been on the decline for the past three years. However, it appears that the ratio has bottomed out and is now nearly level for six out of the last nine months. So, we may be at the bottom of the real estate market. What has to happen before this ratio will start to improve? Prices will have to come down to the tipping point where buyers once again see value in the real estate market.

In Anne Arundel County the total sold volume was down 30.1% from this time last year. The average sold price remains about the same, however the median sold price is down 7.3% from this time last year. The number of homes sold is down 30.0% and the average days on market is up 28.0% from last year.

There were 420 units sold in Anne Arundel County in April 2008, down slightly from 418 units sold in March. The number of active listings was 4,563 in April, up from 4,219 in March. The number of new listings taken in April was 1,236, up from 1,101 taken in March. The number of listings with pending contracts in April was 505, up slightly from 483 last month. The average sold price was $398,231 in April, down slight from $391,756 in March. The average number of days on market was 137 in April, down slightly from 139 in March. The average list price to sold price ratio was 89.79% in April, down from 94.85% in March. Total sales volume for March was $167.3 million, up from $163.8 million in March.

In Annapolis the total sold volume was down 20.6% from this time last year. The average sold price is up 14.1% from this time last year. The number of homes sold is down 48.6% and the average days on market is up 54.3% from last year.

There were 55 units sold in Annapolis in April, down slightly from 57 units sold in March. The number of active listings was 946 in April, up from 852 in March. The number of new listings taken in April was 274, up from 222 in March. The number of listings with pending contracts in April was 132, up from 105 last month. The average sold price was $505,551 in April, up from $461,244 in March. The average number of days on market was was 161 in April, up from 148 in March. The average list price to sold price ratio was 91.6% in April, down from 95.5% in March. Total sales volume in March was $27.8, up from $26.3 million in April.

According to Bankrate.com, the average national rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages is at 5.8%, up slightly from this time last month. The National Average Composite Mortgage Rate is 6.2% for April.

According to RealtyTrac.com, the number of pre-foreclosures in Anne Arundel County was 324 in April, about the same as 323 in March. The number of auction properties in the county was 289 in March, down from 342 in March. And, the number of bank owned properties was 277 in April, up from 246 in March.

So what can we expect for the end of the second quarter 2008? Sales will remain sluggish as more homes come to market than are sold. Although the number of buyers in the market remains relatively constant, buyers still believe that homes are overpriced. So, home prices will continue to decline as more homes come to market than go under contract. Sellers who adjust price downward could simply chase the market down or could make a dramatic adjustment and get there before their competition. Sellers must take all competition seriously and should price significantly below market comps and always below competition if they want to get their homes sold. When the buyers' perception is homes are overpriced, sellers must price their home to look like a bargain in today's real estate market. The lowest price and most favorable terms will result in the fastest sale at the best price!

While no one can predict the future with any certainty, one thing is certain - it remains a buyer's market. Buyers have large numbers of desirable properties from which to choose and sellers have lots of competition. A firm understanding of the market trends and forces is necessary for making the best real estate decisions.
So, if you are serious about buying or selling a home in today's real estate market, contact Stephen Howell, Associate Broker, REALTOR®, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, at 410-923-3217, www.LiveInAnnapolis.com.

We need a new way of thinking about real estate. You see, our homes are a commodity - not a product. When the seller establishes the selling price it's a product, but when the buyer sets the selling price it's a commodity. And, the price of the commodity moves up or down as a function of supply and demand. In the real estate market, we call this appreciation or depreciation. Right now we have more homes on the market now than we did this time last year and more than the year before.
So you see, we've been in a depreciating market since mid-to-late 2005 and all the while home prices have been declining.

Buyers' perception of value in today's market is significantly lower than that of Sellers. Some Sellers, still living in 2005, believe that the market continues to appreciate while home prices fall as more homes come to market. Until such time as the inventory level declines and more homes come off the market than come on, we will not reach a tipping point where prices could start improve and the market appreciates.

When sellers aggressively position their property below market they can create conditions similar to those found in appreciating markets energizing the buyer pool, and create an environment whereby they can obtain the best price sales price in the shortest period of time.

In Anne Arundel County in April there were 4,309 active listings on the market, up 2.1% from last month. There were 1,239 new listings in April, up 12.5%. And, there were 691 pending listings, up 43.1%. There were 366 listings sold, down 12.4%. The average sold price was $399,191, up 1.9%.

In Annapolis in April there were 946 active listings on the market, up 11.0% from last month. There were 274 new listings, up 23.4%. And, there were 132 pending listings, up 25.7%. There were 55 listings sold, down 3.5%. The average sold price was $505,551, up 9.6%.
So, when will we see relief? Inventory levels will continue to rise and we can expect prices to decline for the foreseeable future. Sellers that want their homes sold today will need to position their homes below market and below any competition.

In Conclusion

If you are thinking about buying or selling a home or know someone who is, for a confidential, private, professional consultation without any obligation to discuss today's real estate market, please contact Stephen Howell at 410-923-3217, www.LiveInAnnapolis.com.