Stephen Howell

April showers may bring May flowers but is the real estate market is ready to bloom? While negative news coverage of the real estate market dominates the headlines well positioned sellers and ready willing and able buyers are making deals. Although the inventory of active units is up, the average sold price in Anne Arundel County is off a mere 0.8% from this time last year while Annapolis is off 14.4% form March of 2007. Pending sales - the best predictor of future closed transactions - are up modestly. Sold units this past month across the county were up in March by 26.3% but down from March 2007 by 34.1%. Sales are likely to remain sluggish for the next three months and this buyer's market could continue twelve more months.

In Anne Arundel County the total sold volume was down 19.6% from this time last year. The average sold price remains about the same, however the median sold price is down 4.5% from this time last year. The total units sold is down 34.1% and the average days on market is up 23.0% from last year.

There were 418 units sold in Anne Arundel County in March 2008, down from 331 units sold in February. The number of active listings was 4,219 in March, up from 3,993 February. The number of new listings taken in March was 1,101, up from 872 taken in February. The average sold price was $391,756 in March, down from 403,440 in February. The average list price was $431,775 in March, down from 444,730 in February. The average number of days on market was 139 in March, down from 147 in February. The average list price to sold price ratio was 9.0.73% in March, down from 97.6% in February. Total sales volume for March was $163.7 million, up from $133.5 million in February.

In Annapolis the total sold volume was down 20.0% from this time last year. The average sold price is down 14.4% from this time last year. The total units sold is down 52.1% and the average days on market is up 1.4% from last year.

There were 57 units sold in Annapolis in March, down from 58 units sold in February. The number of active listings was 852 in March, up from 802 in February. The number of new listings taken in March was 222, up from 179 in February. The average sold price was $461,244 in March, down from $558,979 in February. The average list price was $482,977 in March, down from $591,054 in February. The average number of days on market was 148 in March, down from 165 in February. The average list price to sold price ratio was 95.5% in March, up from 94.94% in February. Total sales volume in March was $26.3 million, down from $32.4 million in February.

According to Bankrate.com, the average national rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages is at 5.63%. The National Average Composite Mortgage Rate is 6.7% in March.

According to RealtyTrac.com, the number of pre-foreclosures in Anne Arundel County was 323 in March, up from 257 in February. The number of auction properties in the county was 342 in March, up from 327 in February. And, the number of bank owned properties was 246 in March, up from 227 in February.

So what can we expect for the second quarter 2008? Sales are likely to remain sluggish despite improving weather. Inventory levels will remain high unless many more buyers enter the market. Prices are likely to soften as inventory levels climb. Sellers could be on the market for four to six months. Buyers will have choices in all price ranges. Sellers must take all competition seriously and should price below market comps and below direct competition if they want to get their homes sold soon. Where there are only a few buyers, sellers who want their homes sold now must get the serious buyers to look at their home FIRST! Lowest price, best condition, favorable terms will result in a faster sale.

While no one can predict the future with any certainty, one thing is certain - it remains a buyer's market. Buyers have large numbers of desirable properties from which to choose and sellers have lots of competition. A firm understanding of the market trends and forces is necessary for making the best real estate decisions.
So, if you are serious about buying or selling a home in today's real estate market, contact Stephen Howell, Associate Broker, REALTOR®, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, at 410-923-3217, www.LiveInAnnapolis.com.

The trend is clear. It remains a buyer's market and home sales continue to be sluggish. While current economic conditions continue to deteriorate throughout the country, the metro Washington-Baltimore area - which has been relatively recession proof in years past - is suffering from lagging home sales, declining prices, and increasing inventory levels.

March, April and May are the months when many sellers bring their property to market and sales peak in June about 90 days after the inventory level peaks. While sellers can expect this trend to repeat itself again this year, the number of buyers remains fewer than the number of sellers sustaining the current buyer's market.

In Anne Arundel County this March there were 3,963 active units on the market, 8.4% fewer homes on the market than March 2007. The number of units sold in March was 349, down 45.0% from this time last year. March pending sales was 645 units, up 37.2% over February but down 12.6% from this time last year. The average sold price for March was $390,856, down 3.1% from February and down 1.6% from March 2007.

In Annapolis this March there were 852 active units on the market, 6.2% more homes than February but 2.4% fewer homes than March 2007. There were 57 units sold March versus 58 sold in February but down from 119 sold in March 2007, a 52.1% decline in sales. The average sold price was $461,244 in March, down 17.5% from the month before and down 14.4% from March 2007.

Interest rates which rose above 6% in February and again in March are now back in very favorable territory for buyers. The 30-year fixed rate national average is around 5.76%, a very favorable rate indeed.

So, when will sellers see relief? It is likely to be this time next year before market conditions improve to the point where there is some equilibrium in the marketplace. Until then, buyers rule the marketplace and they demand favorable pricing and seller concessions. Sellers wanting to get their homes sold will need to price accordingly.

In Conclusion

If you are thinking about buying or selling a home or know someone who is, for a confidential, private, professional consultation without any obligation to discuss today's real estate market, please contact Stephen Howell at 410-923-3217, www.LiveInAnnapolis.com.

While sellers wait for the housing market to thaw, buyers remain in hibernation. Will the spring market ever arrive? The housing slump isn't over yet and prices are likely to continue to tumble for the foreseeable future. However, market indicators are promising. Inquiries are up. Showings are up. Units Sold are down. Pending Sales are down. While these are only anecdotal observations, they are excellent predictors of next month's sales. While the Average Sold Price is up across Anne Arundel County and Annapolis by nearly five percent, Units Sold is off thirty-five and forty-two percent respectively from last month! Supply and demand economics continues to prevail; inventory levels remain elevated and are up nearly three percent from last month and are up nearly twenty percent from this time last year. It will take fewer homes coming to market and more buyers deciding to purchase before the downward pressure on prices is reduced.

In Anne Arundel County the total sold volume was down 41.7% from this time last year. The average sold price remains about the same, however the median sold price was down 4.4% from this time last year. The total units sold was down 41.9% and the average days on market is up 19.6% from last year.

There were 259 units sold in Anne Arundel County in January 2008, down from 401 units sold in December 2007. The number of active listings was 3,981 in January, up from 3,876 in December. The number of new listings taken in January was 972, up from 454 taken in December. The average sold price was $413,934 in January, up slightly from $395,990 in December. The average list price was $457,447 in January, up from $432,411 in December. The average number of days on market was 134 in January, up from 122 in December. The average list price to sold price ratio was 90.5% in January, down from 97.6% in December. Total sales volume for January was $107.2 million, down from $158.8 million in December.

There were 33 units sold in Annapolis in January, down from 57 units sold in December. The number of active listings was 799 in January, up from 735 in December. The number of new listings taken in January was 161, up from 64 in December. The average sold price was $617,390 in January, up from $591,643 in December. The average list price was $670,448 in January, up from $615,140 in December. The average number of days on market was 189 in January, up from 151 in December. The average list price to sold price ratio was 92.1% in January, down from 94.9% in December. Total sales volume in January was $20.4 million, down from $33.7 million in December.

According to Bankrate.com, the average national rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages is at 5.76%, up from 5.5% reported this time last month. The National Average Composite Mortgage Rate is 6.6% in January, the same as December.

According to RealtyTrac.com, the number of pre-foreclosures in Anne Arundel County was 234 in January, up from 116 in December. The number of auction properties in the county was 344 in January, up from 312 in December. And, the number of bank owned properties was 191 in January, up from 154 in December.

So what can we expect for end of first quarter 2008? Sales are likely to remain slow until the weather starts to break. Inventory levels will start to climb as March and April approach. Prices are likely to soften as inventory levels increase. Sellers could be on the market until mid-to-late summer if they over price. Buyers should have lots of choices in all price ranges. Sellers must take any competition seriously and should price at or slightly below market and always below direct competition. Where there are only a few buyers, sellers who want their homes sold now must get the serious buyers to look at their home FIRST! Lowest price, best condition, favorable terms will result in a faster sale.

While no one can predict the future with any certainty, one thing is certain - it remains a buyer's market. Buyers have large numbers of desirable properties from which to choose and sellers have lots of competition. A firm understanding of the market trends and forces is necessary for making the best real estate decisions.

So, if you are serious about buying or selling a home in today's real estate market, contact Stephen Howell, Associate Broker, REALTOR^®, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, at 410-923-3217, www.LiveInAnnapolis.com.

Despite what Washington or the media says, all signs point to the fact that we are in a recession. The 2008 Presidential candidates claim we're in economic trouble. Recent bold moves by the President, the Congress and the Federal Reserve are aimed at halting further economic decline.

In an emergency session on Tuesday, January 22nd, the Federal Reserve cut the prime rate three-quarters of a point. A week later on Wednesday, January 30th, they dropped the rate another astonishing half point. The Feds' key rate now resides at 3 percent and there are signals that they are prepared to go lower if the economy continues to worsen while the nations' growth has all but stumbled to a virtual halt.

With the economy in crisis, President Bush proposed a $145 billion tax relief program aimed at preventing a recession that is already here. In the meantime the war in Iraq is estimated to cost $1.2 Trillion Dollars. According to Sen. Hillary Clinton "It did take a Clinton to clean (up) after the first Bush, and I think it might take a second one to clean up after the second Bush". McCain who is "pro-growth, less spending" has "...confidence in the economic future of this country."

There are several early indicators that might suggest we are beyond the bottom of the real estate market and starting to climb out. First, inquiries are up - calls and e-mails. Second, showings are up. Homes that sat dormant at the end of 2007 are getting action. Third, attendance at open houses is up. And fourth, Sellers are starting to see offers, some low-ball but others negotiable. The market may be responding.

Despite activity by buyers, sales lag. In Anne Arundel County in January there were 237 units sold, down 31.5% from 346 in December, down 46.9% from last year. Sales in Annapolis in January were 33, down 42.1% from 57 in December, down 58.8% from 80 last year. Across Anne Arundel County the Average Sold Price was $421,514 in January, up 1.4% from $415,771 in December, up 2.2% from last year. Across Annapolis the Average Sold Price was $617,390 in January, up 4.4% from $591,643 in December, up 24.0% from last year.

In Conclusion

If you are thinking about buying or selling a home or know someone who is, for a confidential, private, professional consultation without any obligation to discuss today's real estate market, please contact Stephen Howell at 410-923-3217, www.LiveInAnnapolis.com.

Are we already in a recession? The news commentators, politicians, and economic pundits won't say so until after the fact. News about the upcoming 2008 election continues to eclipse most news including economic news. A recession, no matter how weak or strong, is not likely to be openly discussed until the Democratic and Republican candidates are chosen. Home prices may trend downward. Homes will still sell but prices will be softer. Sellers that can price competitively and below direct and indirect competition should get their homes sold first and the quickest. January, February and March are often slow months and sales can be slow. Recent warm weather may encourage buyers to continue looking rather than hibernate. In commodity driven real estate markets, pricing is everything. Supply and demand economic principles rule. However, buying a home is a complex process and emotional investment and can never be effectively commoditized. We should remain optimistic about the overall real estate market and expect improving conditions throughout the year.

Inventory levels fell again last month for the third month in a row to 3,876 active listings in Anne Arundel County at the end of December 2007 - down from the peak in September when there were 4,646 active units on the market. The average sold price slipped 4.7% in December and was down 3.9% from this time last year. Total volume was up 10.4% from November and off 18.6% from last year. The average list price to sold price ratio was 91.6% last month.

There were 401 units sold in Anne Arundel County in December 2007, up from the 346 units sold in November. The number of active listings was 3,876 in December, down from 4,243 in November. The number of new listings taken in December was 454, down from 730 in November. The average sold price was $395,990 in December, down from $415,771 in November. The average list price was $432,411 in December, down from $461,138 in November. The average number of days on market was 122 in December, up from 120 in November. The average list price to sold price ratio was 91.6% in December, down from 97.6% in November. Total volume for December was $158,792,028, up from $143,856,708 in November.

There were 57 units sold in Annapolis in December 2007, down from 61 units sold November. The number of active listings was was 735 in December, down from 883 in November. The number of new listings taken in December was 64, down from 143 in November. The average sold price was $591,643 in December, up from $561,546 in November. The average list price was $615,140 in December, up from $606,151 in November. The average number of days on market was 151 in December, about the same as 150 in November. The average list price to sold price ratio was 96.2% in December, up from 94.9% in November. Total volume in December was $33,723,666 in December, down slightly from $34,254,306 in November.

According to Bankrate.com, the average national rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages is at 5.5%, down from 5.8% reported this time last month. The National Average Composite Mortgage Rate is 6.6% for December, up from 6.4% as reported for November.

According to RealtyTrac.com, the number of pre-foreclosures in Anne Arundel County was 116 in December, down from 172 in November. The number of auction properties in the county was 312 in December, down from 393 in November. And, the number of bank owned properties was 154 in December, down from 167 in November.

So what can we expect for first quarter 2008? Sales are likely to remain slow as our attention is on the 2008 election. Inventory levels may decline while sellers wait until March or April to come to market. Prices are likely to trend down if sellers become impatient and make deals to get their homes sold before spring. Sellers should expect to be on the market for six to eight months. Buyers have many choices in all price ranges. Sellers should take competition seriously and should price below any direct competition. Where there are only a few buyers, sellers who want their homes sold now must get the serious buyers to look at their home FIRST! Lowest price, best condition, favorable terms will result in a faster sale.

While no one can predict the future with any certainty, one thing is certain - it remains a buyer's market. Buyers have large numbers of desirable properties from which to choose and sellers have lots of competition. A firm understanding of the market trends and forces is necessary for making the best real estate decisions. So, if you are serious about buying or selling a home in today's real estate market, contact Stephen Howell, Associate Broker, REALTOR^®, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, at 410-923-3217.