Hunter Palmer

In his first public speech since taking over as CEO of Fannie Mae, Michael Williams painted a hopeful but difficult road to recovery for the housing market. Speaking before the Exchequer Club in Washington, Williams said the market over the past twelve months has had a “very, very, tough year.” Anyone looking objectively at the economy and the housing market sees hope,” he said, adding “The patient is out of intensive care but still has a very long road ahead to a clean bill of health.” He predicted foreclosures would continue to climb this year and that the inventory of foreclosed properties and unsold homes remain at “exceptionally high levels.” Still, Signs of a recovery in housing are undeniable. New and existing home sales have been posting better than expected gains while the number of pending home sales continues to rise at a record pace. Builder confidence has even managed to rise slightly in recent months and new home starts are showing signs of life as well.

Mortgage rates rose slightly over the past week from near six month lows after stocks ended there near week long-skid and the NASDAQ and S&P 500 both closed Tuesday at 2009 highs. Bonds have held up pretty well, however, as there is still a desire for safe investments in the face of an uncertain economic future. This was evident on Monday when gold prices broke $1,000 per ounce. It is becoming pretty evident that the economy has stepped back from the abyss and is on a much more sound footing than this time last year but doubts still remain about the economy’s strength and the timetable for long-term recovery. As long as the doubts linger, interest rates should remain very attractive. The 30 benchmark thirty-year, fixed-rate is still around 5.25% and has remained in a .25% range for over a month now.

The National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday that its index of pending home sales rose 3.2% in July from June marking the sixth consecutive month of increases. Though not quite as high as the 3.6% increase reported in June, July’s increase marks the first time the index has posted six months of increases since NAR began tracking pending home sales in 2001. Economists generally expected a July increase of only 1.5%. NAR Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, said in a written statement that “momentum in the housing market has clearly turned for the better.” “The recovery is broad-based across many parts of the country,” Yun said. “Housing affordability has been at record highs this year with the added stimulus of a first-time homebuyer tax credit.”

Mortgage rates have managed to ease slightly as bond prices have risen over the past week as stocks have fallen back from their 2009 highs in a sign that investors may finally be pulling back from what many have seen as a premature rally over the past six months. Thirty-year, fixed-rates fell to 5.25%, approaching a six month low and fifteen year rates hovered near 4.50%. We have yet to see any drop in jumbo rates which have remained above 7% for some time with little hope of relief in the foreseeable future as the secondary market for jumbos is nearly non-existent. Look for rates to remain in their current range over the coming week.

We have received more good news on the housing market this past week beginning with Last Friday’s report from the National Association of Realtors’ report on July existing home sales which showed a jump of 7.2% over June and up 5% from July of 2008. It was the biggest month-over-month increase in existing home sales since NAR began tracking the statistic in 1999. On Tuesday, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed home prices increased 2.9% in the three months ending June 30^th. This was the first quarter-over-quarter increase in three years providing further evidence that the housing market has since bottomed and is on the road to recovery. Late breaking news on new home sales came in this morning which showed a jump of 9.6% in July, the highest level since September 2008.

Mortgage rates have stayed in a range over the past week with only mild daily fluctuations in contrast to the increased volatility we had seen in the week prior. The Fannie Mae/ Freddie Mac conforming fixed-rate for single-family purchases stands at 5.375% with no points and the fifteen year stands at 4.625%. Rates have been helped by tame inflation reports and a well received government bond auction last week. Rates have even managed to brush off a better than expected 4.9% increase in durable goods orders reported today with bonds actually a hair higher after the report. I expect rates will remain in their current range over the next week as they have for the past month or so. In the longer term, we will have to see if there are further signs of an improving economy and, if so, will those signs be strong enough to bring some inflationary fears back into the market. So far all indications are that though we are in the beginnings of a recovery, it will be very slow and take some time to fully rebound.

We got a mixed bag of economic data on the housing front this week that, on one hand disappointed, but upon closer analysis showed yet another sign that the battered housing market is recovering. On Tuesday the Commerce Department said that initial construction of new homes fell in July after surging in June. Housing starts fell 11% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 581,000 down form 587,000 in June. Commerce also reported that applications for new building permits also fell in July by a more modest 1.8% though both reports came in below economist’s forecasts. One caveat, however, was that when broken out by construction type, housing starts for single-family homes actually posted a 1.7% gain in July and applications for single-family permits rose by 5.8%. This is the silver lining in these reports as single-family homes are considered the core of the housing market and the overall numbers include the hard hit multi-family sector.

Mortgage rates remain very attractive after last week’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee reassured investors that interest rates would remain low for the foreseeable future as inflationary pressures are anticipated to remain weak for some time. Stocks have also helped out rates as consumer spending and consumer sentiment figures released last week have cast more doubt about a speedy recovery for the economy. The thirty-year conforming fixed rate is sitting right at 5.25% for single-family purchases and the fifteen-year is at 4.625%. Government rates have been just a tad higher at 5.50% and 5.00% respectively. As long doubts linger over the economy, we will continue to have the uncertainty factor that tends to maintain demand in the bond market and keep rates low. Without any inflationary pressures in the short-run, I don’t see any significant rise in rates over the coming weeks and we may even see some further easing.

Mortgage rates held up well last week as the Federal Reserve auctioned off a whopping $200 billion in US Treasury debt and even managed to improve somewhat by week’s end as I had predicted. This week has been another story however. After sliding to 5.25%, the rate on the benchmark thirty-year, fixed-rate climbed back to 5.50% as the ten-year Treasury note yield rose to 3.73% by Wednesday morning. Bonds prices have been falling in reaction to positive economic news and a renewed rally in the stock market though stocks looked ready to pull back by mid week. After a period of relative calm over the past several weeks, we are seeing a return to volatility and I expect to see some see-sawing of rates over the short-run as investors try to digest the mix of economic data and corporate earnings.

Yet another sign of a thawing housing market could be seen in a report released on Tuesday that showed pending home sales rose for the fifth consecutive month in June. According to the National Association of Realtors, the Pending Home Sales Index rose to 3.6% during June. That was 6.7% higher than in June of 2008 and the first five consecutive month increase since July of 2003. The number surprised most analysts who had expected a meager .7% increase. The majority of the sales were in the lower-end segment of the market indicating that many first-time buyers are getting off the fence, lured by low rates, low prices and the $8,000 tax credit. With a deadline closing date of November 30 to be eligible for the credit, I expect we will see a surge of first-time buyer activity in the next ten weeks or so.