Hunter Palmer

Mortgage rates have eased somewhat this week as weakness in the stock market has translated into higher demand for bonds. Stock have been hit by a renewed sense of uncertainty as investors wonder if the rally over the last several months has gotten ahead of the economic realities. A stock’s loss is a bond’s gain and the thirty-year fixed mortgage rate now stands at 5.50%. Fifteen year fixed rates are just below 5% at 4.875%. The jumbo market continues to be nearly non-existent with thirty year rates for loans over $417,000 back over 7% with no relief in sight.

More signs the housing market is stabilizing could be found in a report released by the Census Bureau that showed housing starts jumped 17.2% in May to an annualized pace of 532,000 after a revised estimate of 454,000 in April. The data also revealed that new building permits rose by 4% in May. Other news, on the economy as a whole, showed inflation at the wholesale level remains in check with the Producer Price Index rising by a modest .2% last month. Economists had expected a rise of three times that at .6%. Year over year, wholesale prices have fallen by 5% - the largest annual rate of price decline since 1949.

There is a lot of talk in the media about the fact that financing for real estate is so difficult to obtain these days and it is true that underwriting and credit standards have tightened significantly. Yet most of the difficulties lie in the second home, investor and condo markets. For primary residence purchasers buying single family detached homes, however, times could not be better. Low rates are still with us ( yes 5.50% is low) there is an $8,000 first –time buyer tax credit, home prices are their lowest in years and mortgage programs abound. FHA , Rural Development and VA loans are still extremely attractive options with relaxed down payment, credit, and debt ratio requirements and offer repeat and first-time buyers alike an opportunity to take advantage of the amazing deals to be found right now. I would be happy to explain these programs in detail with anyone interested.

Thirty year mortgage rates have settled in around 5.75% this week as the volatility we’ve seen over the past couple of weeks has subsided. We could have been at 6.00% had it not been for a well received government auction of thirty-year Treasury bonds this week. The yield on the ten year note touched 4% at one point this week but has since come back down to 3.80%. The problem is that the markets are starting to worry less about the economy and more about inflation. Deficit spending, higher energy prices and pent-up demand have many fearing a spike in the rate of inflation that will eventually drive interest rates even higher. There is validity to this argument though I see that as more of a long-term scenario and that we will continue to see relatively low interest rates for some time as the government knows that a housing recovery is essential to the overall economy and that higher interest rates could stifle that recovery. The Fed stands ready to buy up billions more in mortgage-backed securities to help keep rates down if necessary.

Mortgage rates rose another .25% over the last week and now stand at 5.75% for thirty-year fixed with no points. We are seeing some steadying, however, as the bond market appears to have stabilized and stocks have been flat for the last few days. With no large government bond auctions this week we should not see any further rate deterioration and rates could possibly ease slightly. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has expressed frustration with the rising rates insisting that low rates are critical to a sustained recovery in the housing market. To that end, he and the Fed stand prepared to purchase billions more in mortgage-backed securities to drive rates lower if necessary.

On the economic front, the Commerce Department reported last Friday that new claims for jobless benefits fell in May by a much larger than expected amount though the overall unemployment rate rose to 9.4% - its highest level in twenty six years. While on the surface it may appear that losing 450,000 jobs in one month is a bad thing it indicates a marked drop in the rate of job losses and further evidence the economy is stabilizing. On Tuesday, however, the government reported that wholesale inventories shrank to $405 billion, the lowest level since September, suggesting companies were adjusting inventories downward to offset further anticipated declines in sales.

One last note I reported on two weeks ago, HUD has now issued its final rule on utilization of the $8,000 homebuyer tax credit in conjunction with FHA insured mortgages. After first indicating they would allow for those funds to be used for repayment of a bridge loan to cover down payment and closing costs, HUD now has backed away from that plan fearing it carried many of the same risks as the now defunct homebuyer’s assistance programs. HUD ruled that while the tax credit funds may be borrowed against for such things as closing costs, pre-paids and rate buy-downs, the borrower must still bring 3.5% of his or her own funds to the closing table. This is a hugely significant decision as the major hurdle most FHA borrowers and, indeed, most first-time homebuyers is lack of down payment. Many saw the use of the tax credit for down payment as a way of bringing an untapped segment of the population into the housing market and thus stabilizing the sector and overall economy.

What a difference a week makes! Last Wednesday I reported that the days of long-term mortgage rates under 5% were likely at an end. Seven days later we find the thirty-year fixed rate for conforming mortgages near 5.50%. A series of government Treasury auctions last week were met with little enthusiasm as investors are demanding a higher return than these bonds can deliver. The continued strength in the stock market, which saw one of its best months in recent memory in May, has also drawn investors away from bonds putting downward pressure on prices and increasing bond yields significantly. As of Tuesday, the yield on the ten year Treasury note stood at 3.64%

There is good news to on the housing front to report. On Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales rose a whopping 6.7% in April after a surprise jump of 3.2% n March. This shattered consensus expectations of a rise of only .5%. Also on Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported a surprise jump in construction spending in April. Commerce said spending rose .8% in April, the biggest increase since August. Analysts were anticipating a 1.3% decline. Most significantly, spending on residential construction rose .7% providing further indication that the housing market is attempting to recover. Another report from the Institute for Supply Management said its index of manufacturing activity rose to 42.8 in May from 40.1 in April – its highest reading since September. This news helped offset a report that showed consumer spending slipped .1% in April after falling .3% in March. All combined, the silver linings seen in reports on the health of the economy continue to lead many analysts to believe the severity for the recession is easing and that a recover will likely begin in the third quarter of this year.

My observations on the local real estate market tend to show the majority of purchasers we are currently seeing in the market are a mix of out of state second-home buyers taking advantage of the incredible deals and first-time homebuyers jumping off the fence sensing that prices will not go lower and seeing rates begin to rise. I am also seeing some locals taking advantage of the market conditions to downsize or make a change from single-family to condominium living. All in all, I see a good mix of buyers right now and plenty of financing options to fit their needs. We are returning to a normal market void of speculators and flippers which should lay the groundwork for long-term recovery and sustainability.

Mortgage rates rose dramatically this week not only pushing through the 5% threshold but touching 5.50% at one point. We have settled back to 5.375% as of this afternoon but this is still a full half percent higher than we were this time last Friday. The volatility I spoke of in last week’s update turned into a full-fledged collapse in the bond market this week as a series of government debt auctions were met with only a lukewarm response. The problem is that there is such a flood of US treasuries coming on the market to raise cash for the myriad bailouts and stimulus that investors are losing interest (no pun intended) and looking for higher returns in stocks and other types of bonds. The Feds have done such a good job thus far of buying back debt that they were able to maintain an uneasy equilibrium in supply and demand for US treasury securities. That equilibrium appears to have now tilted towards over-supply.

I could mention more bad news on the housing sector this week like the fact that 12% of all mortgages are now currently in some form of delinquency or foreclosure – 49.8% of which were prime loans - but it’s the weekend and we have plenty to be happy and thankful for. I know I continue to be very busy with out of state condo purchasers and we are seeing more and more first-timers coming into the market. Even at 5.375% mortgage rates remain very attractive and there are plenty of signs that worst of this housing downturn is behind us.