Ed Kaminsky

Where the 2012 Manhattan Beach Real Estate market is headed . . .

Ed's "State of The Market" Address

When analyzing the real estate market, how do you know when it has really changed for the better? Headlines. Just reading headlines in the news can give you a clue where things may be headed. Real Estate trends are based more upon consumer confidence levels, than almost anything else. Of course there are significant driving factors which include the overall economy, the mortgage meltdown and other global factors, but it is you and your neighbors that really create the effect of any significant movement in real estate prices.

Take a look at this week's headlines...

Warren Buffet on CNBC: I'd Buy UP 'A Couple Hundred Thousand' Single-Family Homes If I Could.

DS News: Housing Crisis to End in 2012 as Banks Loosen Credit Standards

RIS Media: Housing Expected to Add to GDP for First Time in 7 Years

National Association of Realtors: January Pending Home Sales Rise, Market on Uptrend

DS News: Proposed Bill to Speed Up Short Sale Process and Prevent Foreclosure.

Ed Kaminsky Real Estate Team: Multiple offers on our listings are back in 2012.

These headlines are easy to find and positive news is definitely dominating national Real Estate sections today. What about on the local level? What is happening in our back yard? Outside of following the headlines, just take a look at the faces of local realtors, and see if their 5 year frown is starting to turn upside down. From the more active agents you can hear sighs of relief that their listings are now selling before having to spend their entire commission on advertising. Sellers are thanking them for quick successes, and there is talk of multiple offers on many of the properties that are hitting the market.

If you are thinking of selling, it is possible that you could actually realize more money now than you did in 2009-2011. Does that mean property prices have appreciated? Well the overall statistics haven't shown that yet but there is no question we are now witnessing sales of homes at prices we know we couldn't get 18 months ago here in the South Bay.

Comparing inventory levels of homes for sale vs. those in escrow gives you the best look at the trend that is starting to take shape. In November of 2010 there were 4,231 homes for sale and 627 of them went into escrow; that is equivalent to about 7 months of inventory. Today there are almost half as many homes for sale at 2,395 and 885 of them went pending in January of 2012; that leaves only 3 months of inventory on the market. This is a tell-tale sign of a buyer's market standing eye-to-eye with a seller's market. Looking at the Manhattan Beach Real Estate market over the last 14 months we saw an inventory high of 169 homes for sale and we are currently down to 95 homes for sale in Manhattan Beach, of which 34 of them went pending last month.

CAUTION SELLERS: this does not mean you can expect to sell your property for what you paid for it in 2007, however it is going to get easier to sell and possibly sell for slightly more than you could have last year.

CAUTION TO BUYERS: when making offers you may not be in the driver's seat anymore; many homes will have competing buyers pursuing it at the same time you are. You don't have to get in a major bidding war, but you do have to be very realistic about what you offer if you want to end up with the home. It is also possible that if you do miss out on your dream home, the next one to come along could cost more money.

Note to Doubters: if you don't believe the market has hit bottom or is on its way to recovery, you might be right. We all look at the data available and make our best educated guess on what may happen. However if I was that smart, I would have bought more property in 1995 and would have sold everything I owned in 2006. That is not what I did. Your perspective on the data available is what will motivate you to do what you believe is right.

Ed’s Best Guess: by viewing the combination of a 5 year decline in Real Estate prices along with historical low interest rates, I trust that 2012 may be the best year to buy Real Estate that we have seen in the last 40 years. If you are a move up buyer there is no doubt that now is a great time to make that move. If you are buying for the first time and you have saved your pennies, then I say dive in! If you are downsizing and want to finally be a seller that can enjoy the selling process and not have to wait 6 months to sell your home, right now might be the time for you. In all cases be sure to consult your lender to confirm your qualifications, they may say guidelines are loosening but I haven't seen it yet. In addition, you should definitely seek advice from your tax advisor regarding the ramifications of buying and/or selling. After you determine if the timing is right for you, call the best Real Estate agent that you can find and drill them with questions on how they will best represent you and your situation.

Learn how to avoid the Top 5 Seller Mistakes in any market condition

310-798-1277

You're Right: Timing Is Everything

Timing and Marketing: maximize opportunities for self-promotion

Long story short. In everything you do, you need to see an opportunity to market yourself. You are literally your own agent. Case in point: my Marketing Director and I were tossing around ideas about how to get a fresh angle on an old concept: photographing large estate homes. The challenge has always been capturing the grandeur and expanse of large luxury properties in print and on film without having to take a 2^nd mortgage out on your own house to pay for it. As technology continues to advance, we are continually introduced to new industry tools designed to “work it harder, make it better, do it faster and make us stronger” as agents. We hired a local company called HoverFly Studios to help us think outside of the box: so we went straight up out of the box and into the sky.

On the day of our inaugural flight, my Marketing Director had the foresight to grab our video camera and shoot the process of the shoot itself. She then turned it around into a YouTube video showing how our team is making strides to take luxury marketing to that next level, while taking the liberty to be a little funny with it. She cleverly titled the video “UFO Shoots Palos Verdes Area Home” and used various versions of that title to grab interest on the internet and through social media channels.

The TIMING couldn’t have been better because within a week, the L.A.P.D. issued a warning to Realtors not to use unmanned aircraft to take photos of properties*, citing FAA policy, etc. The story hit the LA Times, which caught the attention of national press and evolved into a talk radio hot topic. KABC News Radio called me to discuss my reaction to the warning. How did they think to call me and not someone else? They Googled “realtors using helicopters” and found our UFO video of the behind-the-scenes footage, that’s how. 2 weeks later I was standing at a listing appointment (for an $8 million listing) with a film crew from ABC’s Nightline and the crew from HoverFly Studios. Not only did I get the listing, I got national, prime time exposure for the property, and a great spot on national television.

Incredible press. Free marketing. Amazing. It’s just a lesson to always be thinking of ways to use your everyday experiences and turn them into opportunities to market yourself as well as your listings. Do not be afraid to try something new. Don’t be afraid to share that you did. It’s definitely OK to show your personality, be a little silly and take a stab at something you normally wouldn’t.

Showing the process of what makes you a professional is marketable material. It doesn’t have to be a big production, so keep that video camera handy at all times. Think to shoot various days “on set” as a home is being staged. Give your opinion on why the process is just as important as the end result. Video yourself putting up your “Sold” sign or handing keys over to new owners. Talk about the relationships you build and why that’s important, etc. Walk through a stripped foreclosure and talk about the pros and cons of buying a bank owned home. People love to see what goes on behind the scenes. They love to see the process of things. That’s all marketable material for you as a great agent. Who knows, a reporter doing a piece on all the things sellers have to think about in a tough market might do a Goolge search and--BAM--there’s your home staging video. Guess who’s going to get the call as the expert?

If you’d like to learn more about HoverFly Studios and how they can help take your luxury home marketing to new heights, contact Aaron Spicker at 888-550-4361 and tell them you saw his piece with Ed on Nightline.

*In reaction to the LAPD warning issues to agents, HoverFly Studios issued the following statement:

We do not fly in national airspace. We only fly over private property and in an area that could never be considered a pathway for an airplane containing human beings.

Here are the guidelines that we follow.

1. We do not fly in FAA airspace. For real estate work, we only fly at or below tree level over privately owned land with permission of the land owner.

2. We uses ISM frequencies at allowed power levels to communicate with our air vehicle.

3. We do not use any automation; our pilots are in full manual control at all times.

4. We use a PIC (pilot in charge) and spotter in line of sight flight all all times.

5. We have two million dollars of commercial liability insurance.

How to Eye a Real Catch In The Real Estate Market

(inspired by all the love in the air this week . . .)

You’re on a mission to find your dream home. It’s the one you have thought about for years. The timing feels right. You’ve saved for your down payment. The Real Estate market is showing signs of a future recovery; so how do you know if the home you have your eye on, is really “the one”? There are occasions albeit rare ones, when a buyer walks into a home and is overcome by love at first sight; where they open the door and say, “WOW! This is it! This is exactly what I have been looking for my whole life! Mr. Agent, write up the contract now, I’ve got to have this house.” The harsh reality is that most buyers are more methodical about their search, especially in a flat or down trending market which makes them really question if they are standing in a buying situation that is the perfect fit.

After twenty-five years of working with buyers and recording hundreds of millions of dollars in sales, one thing I have figured out for certain is that what turns on one buyer certainly may have the opposite reaction for another. A home and its location can appeal very individualistically. To find that keeper, one must identify their top “must haves”. (Although, I do caution most buyers to have flexibility on this “must have list”.) When shopping in the beach cities like Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach and Palos Verdes, buyers quickly realize that due to the high price of Real Estate, fulfilling their entire “must have” list is a tall order.

Can you imagine how many calls that come in from buyers who step foot in the South Bay and tell me “I can spend ONE MILLION dollars. I would like a very nice 4 or 5 bedroom home. I prefer a back yard big enough for a pool. I would like to have a sweeping view of the ocean while at the same time be walking distance to the beach. Oh, and I want the home to be in the best school district in the area. In addition, I would like to offer 20% or 25% off the list price because everyone knows it’s a buyer’s market right now.” It’s easy to lean back and let out a huge sigh of frustration, but after hearing that request no less than a thousand times in my career, I quickly learned it is just another opportunity to help a new client learn things about the market they just haven’t had the opportunity think about yet. Am I going to ask them to “settle” when they have held out for all these years for that dream of finding “the one”? Absolutely not. But I will help them look at their list and determine what is a reality for them and then I go to work finding it for them.

How do I help I this buyer identify the perfect home for them within the best possible parameters? It is critical process. There are 5 major key elements to focus on when choosing a home; the importance of each varies dramatically from buyer to buyer.

1. Affordability

2. Location

3. Size (both home and lot)

4. Timing

5. Amenities

Let’s examine affordability, you may be able to afford the most expensive home in town but it doesn’t mean that it is right for you. Maybe you can afford a 5 bedroom home but you have no intention of growing your family, and a 3 bedroom will suit you perfectly well. When you analyze home size or lot size, you have to think about the future. Is your family shrinking or growing? What’s more important: location or house size; back yard size or home size? What makes you more comfortable; home size or condition? What about value or quality? Do you value peace and quiet or proximity to the city shops? There never is a right or wrong answer to these questions, though many will try to influence you; including brokers, family and friends. To find the right house, identify what’s important to YOU and seek out what you know is your personal best match.

Your list of amenities can range widely from quality of construction, architectural style, finish style and upgrades, special features like a built in home theatre or bowling alley. Don’t laugh: I just listed one with a two lane bowling alley complete with disco lights and a state-of the art sound distribution system similar to those found in a multi-million dollar night club.

Timing your home purchase is as important as any of the factors. When I refer to timing in this case I do not mean simply timing the market. It's about finding the ideal time for yourself. In other words, if you have outgrown your home, if you have been relocated, if you are downsizing or maybe just upgrading, then it may be time to make a move. Make sure you can afford what you are buying and buy when your needs to move exceed your desire to stay where you currently are.

My advice: when making your dream list, put an “F” next to the items that you are most willing to be flexible with, then share your list with your agent. Remain as flexible as possible; with prices as high as they are in the South Bay, finding a home with absolutely everything you want is very challenging to say the least. What’s important to be aware of is that you most likely aren’t the only person operating off of a “must haves” list that looks like yours. Chances also are that you aren’t the only qualified buyer, ready for a quick escrow either. If you are fairly picky and you finally see a home that seems perfect, there is a good chance you are not alone. When you lay eyes a home that gives you the chills (in a good way), make an offer.

Don’t let it be the one that got away.

Start your South Bay Home Search Now With Our FREE South Bay Real Estate Guide

Ed Kaminsky, top agent for Shorewood Realtors, services Manhattan Beach Real Estate, Hermosa Beach Real Estate, Redondo Beach Real Estate, Palos Verdes Real Estate, Torrance Real Estate, El Segundo Real Estate and all other South Bay Real Estate for home buyers and sellers.

Manhattan Beach Real Estate--Quick Guide

So, you’ve decided to take up roots in Manhattan Beach. Whether it is considered a permanent residence or a 2^nd home get-away spot, the choices of homes and locations here are as varied as there are fish in the sea. However, Manhattan Beach does have many niche locations and something that is unique about each one. We will take you on a brief insider’s tour of each area in an effort to help you decide which neighborhood best suits your needs and wants. We will start with the most expensive area, and move eastward from there. (Note: all Manhattan Beach elementary schools feed into the same middle and High School; Manhattan Beach Middle School and Mira Costa High School.)

The Strand- You could call it Billionaire’s Row. Though you don’t necessarily need a billion dollars to own there, it does attract them. Many own some of the most beautiful homes ever created and choose this spectacular beach town as their home away from home. “The Strand” is how we refer to the row of homes that sits directly on the beach. The row of homes starts at the Northern border of Hermosa Beach and ends at the Southern border of El Segundo.

Pros- up-front views and proximity to the beach; a unique ability to maintain value or increase at a significant pace; a “Front Row” seat in Manhattan Beach; unblock-able by any neighbors to the West

Cons- steep asking prices; limited privacy; some noise factors to consider; seasonal rentals as neighbors; limited parking

The Sand Section- This coveted area is bordered by the Pacific Ocean to the West, Valley Drive and the Tree Section to the East, and it stretches along both North and South Manhattan Beach. What “The Sand Section” really identifies is the homes that are very close to the beach. This area is known for the smallest lot sizes in the beach area, some as small as 1,345 square feet (or 30 ft x 45 ft ); about one half of what is considered a full size lot. The side set back on these lots is 3 ft which ultimately means you are approximately 6 ft from your neighbors. Homes are usually either 2 or 3 stories, depending on the zoning and location. There can be as many townhome/condos as there are single family homes, many of which have terrific coastal views and are ideally located walking distance to the central or North End commercial districts, which are known for great restaurants and quaint shops.

Pros- Close proximity to the beach and shops found in the Downtown Manhattan Beach district; many homes offer fantastic views; low traffic “walk streets”.

Cons- little-to-no yard space; price; close proximity to neighbors; a struggle to find guest parking.

The Tree Section- Bordered by the Sand Section to the West, Rosecrans Blvd. to the North, Sepulveda Blvd. to the East, and Manhattan Beach Blvd to the South, the Tree Section received its namesake from the street names most of which, well . . . are different species of trees. This area offers slightly larger lots than the Sand Section they are typically 40 ft wide and approximately 125 ft deep, allowing a full 8 feet of distance from your neighbors and a bit of a back yard. There are many classic post-war homes still maintaining their original character intermixed with homes that have been re-built over the last two decades. The newer homes are typically around 3,200 sq ft., as opposed to the original homes that are closer to 1,500 sq ft.

Pros- a neighborhood with lots of character; walk-able/bike-able proximity to the beach; charming streets; great access to popular local commuter routes.

Cons- if you are a back yard person, they still are typically small; some inconsistency in overall aesthetic of the neighborhood; many prefer not to be close to the refinery that borders Rosecrans Blvd.

American Martyrs- A special pocket of Tree Section homes that are near American Martyrs church and school. These homes often come at a premium partially because they feature most of the benefits that the Sand Section offers combined with the benefits of the Tree Section. With larger lots the homes provide the best of both worlds: a yard, sometimes a view, and an easy stroll Downtown or to the beach.

Pros- plenty of parking available; close to the beach; benefit of larger yards; classic neighborhood feel.

Cons- depending on the street and block, home to some of the most expensive Real Estate in the area.

The Hill Section- Located South of Manhattan Beach Blvd, West of Sepulveda (to Ardmore) and bordering Hermosa Beach on the South, this is the most prestigious residential section of Manhattan Beach. The Hill Section boasts even larger lots, many of which have outstanding vistas of the Pacific Ocean. Some of the largest homes in town are built here and they sell for multi-millions. This is one of the only areas where you can get a large home, a large lot, and still have gaping ocean views. If you can capture all of that it amounts to a fairly hefty price tag.

Pros- estate-styled homes, prestige, beautiful vistas, larger lots, outstanding central location

Cons- price; steep hills or sloped streets which are not as “kid friendly” as some like; slightly farther from the beach than some may like to be.

East Manhattan- The area East of Sepulveda Blvd and South of Manhattan Beach Blvd is known as East Manhattan Beach and is appreciated for consistently having some of the largest lots in town; most of which are 50 ft by 150 ft, allowing for slightly larger homes and spacious, pool-sized back yards. With 5 ft setbacks, you have the most distance from your neighbors and the most privacy of all the Manhattan Beach neighborhoods. The newer homes are usually over 4,000 square feet. For families, it allows the easiest commute to the Middle and High Schools as both are located East of Sepulveda, as well as excellent proximity to popular local commuter routes (for mom and dad).

Pros- typically the largest lots; more privacy; plenty of parking; larger, wider homes; more home + land for the money.

Cons- you are not likely walking to the beach or downtown; lack of any ocean views.

Liberty Village- Bordered by Aviation Blvd. to the East, Manhattan Beach Blvd. to the South, Sepulveda Blvd. to the West, and Marine Ave. to the North, this area is very similar to East Manhattan. One noticeable difference is that a large portion of the area has lots that are approximately 5,000 square feet (but still 50 ft in width). Though slightly smaller, they still allow for similar privacy and distance from your neighbors than locations West of Sepulveda Blvd.

Pros- affordability; proximity to the freeways, LAX, and daily shopping; slightly larger lots.

Cons- you are not likely walking to the beach or Downtown.

Manhattan Village- The only gated community in Manhattan Beach. It is located East of Sepulveda Blvd. and North of Marine Ave. The development was built in the late 1980’s with a combination of single family homes, townhomes and court-homes. The development offers many outdoor activities, including swimming pools, and is also bordered by an executive 9-hole golf course.

Pros- tasteful conforming neighborhood aesthetic; 24-hour security; gated & guarded entry; shared community amenities; walking distance to banks, shopping, dining & movie theatre.

Cons- bit of a distance from the beach; mostly townhomes with small patios; community rules and regulations.

For an in-depth look at each section of Manhattan Beach, visit www.SouthBayRealEstateGuide.com or contact the office for a copy of our exclusive South Bay Real Estate Guide.

Where do buyers really come from?

So you are thinking of selling. You hire your favorite real estate agent and what comes next? Where do the buyers come from? Well, most assume if you hire Joe Agent, they must have a bucket full of buyers that they know and they will simply bring them over and sell the home: a pretty simple process, right?

If it’s so simple, then why does it sometimes seem to take so long to sell a home? Why does your agent never seem to show up with a buyer who actually buys your home? Why do buyers show up and say they won't buy your home because it only has 3 bedrooms and they need 4 bedrooms? Can’t they read? If there are so many open houses on my home why hasn't a buyer walked in and bought it already?

Anyone that has been in the real estate business for more than an hour will tell you if your home isn't sold, it is likely overpriced. With that being said, then why haven't the buyers written an offer at "their price"? Are you that owner that is sitting there wondering: “Why did I bother putting my home on the market only to deal with all of these hassles? Why can’t I just make a phone call to a few prominent agents in town and tell them to bring me an offer?

When I think back to my first day in Real Estate 25 years ago, I actually assumed that buyers just showed up at the office looking for a home. Coming from the retail jewelry business, that is exactly who I sold jewelry to: people who showed up at the store. Well, after about 8 hours in the business staring at the front door of the office, I realized nearly no one walks into the office looking for a home. I quickly learned if I ever intended to represent a buyer or seller then I had to figure out how to go find my own client.

I asked my manager at the time “where do buyers come from?” and he said, "Ed, hit the streets". I said, "what do you mean"? He said, “pick a street, knock on the door and ask them if they would like to buy or sell a home.” I said, “Won’t they get mad?” He went on to tell ne that some do, but if you smile and are polite, (and they don't own a gun or a German Shepherd,) you will be just fine. I spent the next 10 years of my career following his advice. With only two dog bites, one angry bird incident and, fortunately, no gunshot wounds, it ended up being a great way to find new clients.

This was, of course, before the internet; before cell phones or even fax machines were used. When we agents talked about marketing to find a buyer for our listing, the plan was this: a 2 line ad in the newspaper, a sign in the front lawn, and a Sunday open house. Life was simpler for sure.

Classic Realtor Marketing, in a different era, circa 1994 . . . (yes, that's me at age 12)

Fast forward to my 25th year in the business and the buzz is all about Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Google. Buyers are no longer coming from just around the corner. They are coming from every corner of the Earth. Finding them brings a whole new set of challenges. A bulk of them (62%, per the National Association of Realtors) found the home they bought through agent and broker branding. This really points to agents doing their job finding buyers on their own and bringing them to the properties that are for sale. Surprisingly, only 1% of homes sold were originally discovered from an open house a buyer visited. The balance comes from a variety of sources including, but not limited, to relocation services (similar to SportStar Relocation), print advertisements, the MLS systems, and For Sale signs.

Knowing that 62% of the buyers are going to be sourced through a broker’s diligence, it is also important to know that a majority of those buyers will not likely be working specifically with the agent you hire to market your home. A listing agent’s ability to market to the agents in the area becomes as critical to the marketing process as anything they do in their plan for your home.

Reaching beyond the walls of local agents and local buyers is where creativity and effort becomes necessary. Whether buyers are coming from 25 miles away, 2,500 miles away or from the other side of the globe, it takes diligence and skill to attract their eyes. With millions of internet sites syndicating your listing automatically, it continually becomes a challenge to direct and focus those buyer’s eyes on your own home or listings. In addition, the demographics of today's buyers run the complete gambit. Surprisingly, we are seeing more buyers are under 30 years old with the means to buy a home worth millions. There are buyers, 30-50 years old, and others who are in their twilight years. Knowing how to get a listing in front of all of these buyers, while simultaneously appealing to each generation, is of the utmost importance.

Today there is no question that quality and quantity of property photos online is critical. No matter the generation identifier, buyers spend hours doing research online and the more an agent can offer them up front, the better. Reaching the international market is certainly the hot topic of today. Providing excellent online content to those international Real Estate investors and buyers relocating to the States from overseas is the critical first step to garnering their interest.

Staying ahead of the game, be it via technology or otherwise, is imperative to finding the best buyers in the market. Just last week our team implemented a new “flying camera” to capture a Birdseye view of a large estate home, offering a view that could not be captured from the ground. The video camera is literally attached to a remote control Quiet-Copter™* to ensure that buyers get a full perspective of our inventory from the comfort of their own computer or handheld device on-the-run.

What is the real answer to where buyers come from? Here, there and everywhere. If you are selling, be sure you have a full service agent who has a plan to reach them all if maximizing your price is important to you.

310-798-1277/ EK@ItzSold.com

*View the Quiet-Copter in action as filmed by Hoverfly Studios

Quiet-Copter is manufactured, owned and operated by Hoverfly Studios, based right here in the South Bay.