In what may prove a silver lining in the latest economic black cloud, New York lost fewer residents to other states in 2007-8 than during any year in at least a generation.

Between July 1, 2007, and July 1, 2008, New York recorded a net loss of 126,000 residents to other states — meaning 126,000 more people moved out than moved in — according to an analysis by demographers at Queens College.

Some 257,000 people moved away during those 12 months, the analysis showed, about half the peak of 521,000 in the same 12 months spanning 2005-6.It was the first time the number dipped below 300,000 since the Census Bureau began measuring the annual flows in 1982.

The collapse of home values across the country appears to have already profoundly affected the ability of people in many states, including New York, to sell their homes and move, curtailing domestic migration.

More people who normally might move — potential retirees and job-seekers — stayed put, in part because they could not afford to sell their houses and apartments; and fewer moved to traditional retirement and job centers in Sun Belt states.

Florida, which saw a significant drop in its annual influx of New Yorkers, lost more people to other states — nearly 10,000 more — than it gained for the first time in recent history.

New York is the leading domestic source of migrants to Florida. In 2005, about 100,000 New Yorkers moved to Florida and 25,000 Floridians moved to New York. Two years later, those numbers dropped to fewer than 60,000 New Yorkers’ moving to Florida and 32,000 Floridians’ moving to New York.

California also faced an anomaly in the most recent data: for the first time since the early 1990s, more people moved out of California than out of New York. That earlier period coincided with a recession in California caused by defense industry cutbacks.

Holly Reid, a Queens College demographer, said of the trend in New York: “It’s a possible silver lining.” Despite all the grim economic factors that helped cause the drop-off in out-of-state migration, New York could benefit by retaining its residents. If the trend continues through next year, New York would lose only one seat when Congress is reapportioned after the 2010 census, instead of the two or even three that had been projected, according to Election Data Services, a political consulting firm.

Robert B. Ward, deputy director of the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government at the State University of New York, said the latest data did not take into account the most recent job losses, which are not unique to New York. “One factor may be that New York has outpaced the nation in employment growth for most of the past year or two, which is a reversal of most recent history,” he said. “California and Florida have also been hurting economically, although Florida’s troubles are more recent.”

Michael J. Hicks, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at Ball State University in Indiana, distinguished this recession from earlier ones in terms of its impact on migration.

“In a typical recession, major job losses occur in a single sector that is concentrated in one part of the country,” he said. “This recession seems to be in full force everywhere. That means if you lose your job in Indiana, New York or California, you cannot easily move somewhere else and find a job.”

“Because of housing markets, and nearly simultaneous job losses around the country,” Mr. Hicks said, “domestic migration will be far less pronounced during this downturn than in previous recessions.”

The Census Bureau last month showed that Michigan and Rhode Island were the only states whose overall populations declined in the past year.

Utah had the highest rate of growth last year, followed by Arizona, Texas, North Carolina and Colorado. For the first time in 24 years, Nevada — which ranked eighth — was not among the top four in terms of growth rate.

Texas gained the most people — nearly 500,000 — followed by California, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona.

“Most people move within or to the United States for economic reasons,” said Andrew A. Beveridge, a Queens College demographer. “With the economy slowing down, and real estate values dropping, it is not surprising that more and more people have begun holding on to what they have and staying in place, rather than seeking declining opportunities elsewhere.”

Among those most likely to move to New York rather than leave were people between 18 and 34, Asian-Americans and naturalized citizens.

A separate analysis of federal tax returns by Jan Vink, a researcher at Cornell University’s Program in Applied Demographics, found that while the decline in people leaving New York was spread evenly across the state, the number moving in rose mainly in New York City.

More people moved to New York State in 2007-8 from California, Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Nevada, Vermont and Washington, D.C., than the year before.

Florida is still the top state for people leaving New York, and New Jersey is second, even though the numbers dropped there, too. In a 2005 measurement by the Census Bureau, nearly 61,000 New Yorkers moved to New Jersey. In 2007, the number was 48,000.

Vicki Been, director of the Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy at New York University, said several factors may explain the migration figures.

“Our worry is that if people are under water on their mortgages and the mortgage is more than the value of the house, which is increasingly common, if they sold the house they’d be liable for 20 or 40 or 60 or 80 thousand dollars to pay it off,” Professor Been said. “That may very well lock people in.

“A second explanation,” she said, “is they’re just reluctant to sell when they hope prices will go back up.”

As William H. Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, put it: “Many would-be movers were stranded in states previously thought of as unaffordable.”

California and New York each lost a quarter-million migrants to more affordable states in 2004-5, he said, roughly double what they lost last year.

“New York’s migration has also responded to ups and downs in the financial industry and to housing affordability, but California seems to be much more volatile due to the dynamic push-and-pull migration relationship it has with surrounding Western states,” Dr. Frey said. “Still, in the last two years, as the housing market cooled down elsewhere, New York has been more successful than California in reducing the migration hemorrhaging it suffered during the go-go home-buying years earlier in the decade.”

Florida has never suffered a net loss from one decade to the next, and the 10,000-person deficit in domestic migration last year may also be a first.

Grant I. Thrall, a geography professor at the University of Florida in Gainesville, said: “At the recent peak, 1,000 people per day were moving to Florida. However, 400 people per day were leaving Florida. Now, out-migration has increased and in-migration has declined.”

Dr. Thrall predicted, however, that while Tennessee and the Carolinas were also competing for retirees, migration to Florida would increase again because the number of aging baby boomers is so large and the state remains an appealing destination for them.

Beleaguered owners of chain stores in New York City are asking for permanent or temporary rent reductions through deferred payments, lower payments or leases based on a percentage of retail sales, several retail brokers said.

"Virtually every national chain has a rent reduction program that [will] affect metro New York real estate," said Patrick Smith, executive vice president of the northeast region of Staubach Retail. "Performance is down so significantly they are trying to bring their four-wall occupancy costs to an acceptable rate."

Tenants and landlords are negotiating over a wide spectrum of options that include simply not paying rent in a given month -- equaling as much as an 8 percent reduction over the year -- to rent deferments of up to 20 percent. In the deferment cases, the amount saved would be tacked on to future years.

The retailers seeking relief include local sports chain Modell's Sporting Goods, as well as national retailers such as Borders, CVS and Big M Inc., the owner of women's clothing retailer Mandee, according to various brokers who asked not to be identified.

Lon Rubackin, managing partner with GFI Capital Resources Group, explained how a rent deferment plan might be structured.

Property owners, "might say for a period of three to 12 months you can pay a 10 or 20 percent discount, and whatever that savings is, might get tacked on at the end of the lease, or two or three years from now," he said.

Street retailers, or those stores not in malls, are also seeking a leasing option more often seen in malls, in which rents are based on a range between 8 percent and 12 percent of gross rent. The corporate office of Urban Outfitters made such a request in recent weeks, one broker, who asked not to be identified, said.

Modell's, CVS and Borders declined to comment. The other retailers did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The move to reduce rent payments is part of a national trend by tenants to save money in the weakening economy and to stave off going belly up, said Robin Abrams, executive vice president at Lansco.

Chain store tenants are contacting landlords irrespective of whether the location is a well-performing or poorly-performing store, she said, arguing that times are tough and they want a rent reduction for every site.

Henry Goldfarb, a retail broker and vice chairman with Grubb & Ellis, said he knew of two chains seeking rent reductions in two separate buildings, but declined to identify them.

"Two owners called me for advice," about how to deal with the tenants' requests, he said.

In addition to chain stores, landlords are being badgered for rent reductions from local shops. "Right now it is a small percentage but we feel it is going to grow," Goldfarb said.

He said such requests were unheard of a year ago, but had occurred in the economic downturn in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Today, landlords remain skeptical and at times demand a look at the books to prove the company is in fact in a very weak financial situation and not simply seeking to increase profitability.

In recent months, "a few of the chains are sending out actual form letters ... that say because of the economic situation they are looking for rent reductions of 20 to 25 percent from all owners," he said. He did not identify which retailers were involved.

In another sign of a more conservative office rental market in the city, the amount of space taken by tenants signing lease renewals in Midtown jumped sharply in 2008 to more than a third of the total space leased, according to a fourth quarter report from real estate services firm Grubb & Ellis.

While the total leasing velocity in the Midtown market was down 26 percent to 15.5 million square feet, firms renewing their leases comprised 37 percent of the market, up from 20 percent in 2007, the report said.

Richard Persichetti, research services manager for the New York office of Grubb & Ellis, said he expected the trend to continue in 2009 as firms become even more reluctant to spend money on moving and build-out expenses.

"I think you will see renewals will be more common in today's market because capital is in short supply," Persichetti said.

In Manhattan overall, the report said office leasing declined while vacancy rates rose in 2008.

The amount of square feet leased in Manhattan fell 20 percent to 24.6 million square feet while the amount of space that is vacant or will be vacant over the next 12 months grew to 11.6 percent in the last quarter of 2008 from 7.7 percent in the same period in 2007, the report said.

The report also said investment sales in Manhattan fell dramatically.

For the entire year, investment sales in Manhattan fell by 70 percent to $12 billion in 2008 from $40 billion in 2007, according to the data. In the fourth quarter, just $862 million in investment properties traded hands, a 69 percent decline from the same period a year earlier, while Midtown had its weakest quarter in more than five years, recording sales of just $470 million, the report said.

Dreaming of a sunny two-bedroom near Central Park? An East Village townhouse? Or just a simple apartment to call your own?

Who isn't? But for many of us for many years, these dreams have been out of reach. Now the tides may be turning, according to a new real estate study by Streeteasy, a website that tracks real estate trends.

The good news: there are a lot of property owners asking a lot less than they were. 4,300 listings in Manhattan - that's about 33% of available listings - had price cuts this quarter, while only 133 listings had price increases - that's 74% fewer than last quarter.

The downtown and midtown markets as a whole saw the most cuts. Co-ops had 34.1% more price cuts than in the last quarter and condos had 42.3% more.

Here are some of their key findings:

Manhattan neighborhoods with the most price cuts
These neighborhoods have seen the highest percentage of sellers cutting prices from quarter three to quarter four 2008:

• Beekman - 50.6% of listings cut prices
• Manhattan Valley - 45.7%
• East Village - 43.1%
• Central Park South - 41.9%
• SoHo - 41.7%

The average price discount in these neighborhoods was between 8 - 10 percent.

"The increase in price cuts are the sellers' reaction to current market conditions; they are finally realizing that they must offer an attractive deal to make things happen," said Sofia Kim, Vice President of Research for Streeteasy. "Motivated sellers know that they must move their pricing in order to have success in today's market. Right now, many incentives are being worked into deals."

Manhattan neighborhoods with the deepest price cuts
These neighborhoods have seen the most significant price cuts from quarter three to quarter four 2008:

• Clinton - 10.93% average discount
• Tribeca - 10.83%
• Flatiron - 10.35%
• Central Harlem - 8.58%
• East Harlem 9.98%

John Gasdaska, Vice President of the Corcoran Group, said that great deals abound in this market. He especially likes the deals on the west side - between Central Park West and Riverside Drive - from the 60s up to the 80s.

Case in point: He is listing two properties with prices that have dropped by hundreds of thousands of dollars. A 1200-square-foot one-bedroom property on West 75th Street has dropped from $1,075,000 to $795,000.

No matter the neighborhood, keep an eye on the luxury market for deals
(if you can afford these places, even with the discounts!)

The median sales price of a luxury apartment slipped nearly 4 percent to $4,022,000 between October and December compared with the same period a year ago, according to Prudential Douglas Elliman's quarterly report released Tuesday, as reported by the Associated Press. The report defines the luxury market as the upper 10 percent of sales prices.

"You've got a market where suddenly people don't have the wealth they had before. Those who helped to build Wall Street to the stratosphere don't know what their futures look like now," Rick Goodwin, publisher of Ultimate Homes, told the Associated Press.

Nearly 42 percent of the 259 Manhattan homes currently listed for $10 million or more were dumped on the market since September, according to StreetEasy.com.

Last year, 69 sellers with properties listed for $10 million or more cut their prices — 59 of them were in September or after. There were only 17 price increases last year, according to StreetEasy.com.

One penthouse owner on Central Park West repeatedly slashed the asking price down to $9.9 million from an original $16.5 million — and still no takers.

Flippers at 15 Central Park West, dubbed the "Hedge Fund building," and other new condo buildings like The Plaza and Trump Park Avenue are trying to unload their investments, according to the Associated Press.

Last year, 69 sellers with properties listed for $10 million or more cut their prices — 59 of them were in September or after. There were only 17 price increases last year, according to StreetEasy.com.

"Those who can afford to buy these properties, they're thinking it doesn't feel right to put $20 million into real estate right now," Goodwin said.

And without willing buyers, sellers will have to cut their prices even more.

Citi Habitats has shuttered at least one of its numerous Manhattan offices.

The rental brokerage has closed its storefront Financial District branch at 100 John Street between Pearl and William streets, said Pamela Liebman, CEO of the Corcoran Group, which shares a parent company, NRT, with Citi Habitats.

"The lease was up and we didn't need the space," Liebman said, adding that the company may open another office in the area in the future. "If it picks up again in the Financial District, we'll be happy to open another office down there."

She added that the branch was a "tiny" office, with only about six agents. The office, in a 221-unit luxury rental building, closed several weeks ago, according to the leasing manager for the building, who asked to remain anonymous.

Gary Malin, president of Citi Habitats, did not respond to requests for comment.

Citi Habitats has 14 other offices in the city, according to its Web site.

As the New York City real estate market limps along under pressure from the economic downturn and untold job losses, many brokerages are looking to save money by eliminating or consolidating offices. The Real Deal reported Tuesday that Bellmarc Realty has closed its corporate headquarters at 352 Park Avenue South, moving workers stationed there to the company's Flatiron office.

As for Corcoran, Liebman said the company currently has no plans to close any of its offices, but may look at doing so as a way to cut costs in the current economy. Corcoran has 30 offices in the New York City area, including 14 on the East End of Long Island, according to the company Web site.

"We're not closing any offices, but that may change," Liebman said. "We're continuing to monitor the market. If there are opportunities where we see that closing an office or a consolidation would suit our brokers well, we would take advantage of it."