The number of closings at new downtown Miami condos has been better than many expected, a survey showed, but a big test still looms for the revitalizing urban center.
Miami's latest building boom is creating 22,000 condominium units in the city's urban core, more than double the number built in the last 40 years. But a long-standing question remains: How long will it take for all the condos to actually sell? The answer: 70 percent have found a buyer, according to a new study by condovultures.com, a real estate consultancy. So far, 17,299 condos have been delivered with 12,169 closed at an average price of $405,966 per unit, according to the condovultures.com report. It amounts to a sales total of nearly $5 billion. By year's end, 3,999 units are set to hit the market. Another 1,439 after that. The sales have been better than many observers expected for a downtown area held out by some as ground zero for speculation and excess. And it underlines Miami's ongoing urban revitalization, fueled by people, builders and investors returning to the city center. But it also comes with a big caveat: Nearly a quarter of new downtown condos produced by the boom are just being delivered and starting closings now, including many of the largest projects. ''South Florida developers have to be excited by the fact that more than two out of three downtown condo units have closed successfully,'' said Peter Zalewski, principal at condovultures.com in Bal Harbour. ``But the giants are coming.'' The massive projects include the three-tower, 1,800-unit Icon Brickell pinched between Biscayne Bay and Brickell Avenue, which starts closings this month. The 342-unit Epic, rising along the Miami River, is poised to start closings. So too, 530-unit Mint at Riverfront, 459-unit Infinity at Brickell and 346-unit Paramount Bay. ''We are bullish,'' said Miroslav Mladenovic, vice president of Cabi Development, which started closings Thursday on its 848-unit Everglades on the Bay project along Biscayne Boulevard. ``Comparable projects to ours have fared well, we don't see why we can't fare the same.'' The new batch of condos are hitting the market as credit remains tight, consumers are increasingly cash-strapped and existing home prices continue to fall due to an outsized inventory of unsold homes throughout South Florida. Sales, however, have picked up in recent months. Zalewski's report, culled from a review of property records ending Sept. 30, covers the greater downtown area between the Julia Tuttle and Rickenbacker causeways and Interstate 95 to Biscayne Bay. The swath of land -- which includes the Brickell, central business district and Midtown neighborhoods -- has seen more development than any corner in Florida. The area is closely watched due to its significant construction and its implications for the broader housing market, but also because policy makers and many builders view redevelopment in the urban core as a key element to the region's overall economic success. Meanwhile, the overall downtown closings have been solid so far, Zalewski said. ''We're like in the sixth or seventh inning of this,'' said the Bal Harbour analyst. ``We had a good starting pitcher, and some decent middle relievers, now the question is if it's going to be a blown save.''
BY MATTHEW HAGGMAN
3 Bedroom 2 Bathroom 2 car garage in the exclusive Weston Neighborood of Savanna. Lowest priced rental in Savanna.
$2000 per month.
Jason 954-892-6244
COCONUT CREEK
741 LYONS RD #17-103 CONDO 2/1 $102,900.00
CORAL SPRINGS
10024 TWIN LAKES DRIVE CONDO 2/2 $74,900.00
1049 CORAL CLUB DR CONDO 2/2 $99,900.00
8954 SAMPLE RD T/H 2/2.5 $108,000.00
3702 NW 82 AVE SFH 4/2 $169,900.00
DAVIE
8069 SW 18 COURT T/H 2/2.5 $129,900.00
FT LAUDERDALE
380 NE 45 STREET SFH AUC
1750 NW 3 TERR #202 CONDO 2/2 $114,500.00
650 SW 30 TERRACE SFH 3/2 $129,900.00
707 NE 15 STREET SFH 4/3 $199,900.00
2000 N OCEAN BLVD #927 CONDO EFF $242,500.00
511 SE 5 AVE, #2102 CONDO OCCUPIED TBA
110 HENDRICKS ISLE #7 CONDO 2/2.5 AUC
LAUDERDALE LAKES
3361 NW 47 TERR #226 CONDO OCCUPIED TBA
3131 NW 39 PLACE SFH OCCUPIED TBA
3920 NW 32 TERRACE SFH OCCUPIED TBA
3131 NW 39 PLACE SFH TBA
LAUDERHILL
2220 NW 52 AVENUE CONDO 2/1.5 $64,000.00
4218 INVERRARY BLVD #95-B CONDO 2/2 $54,900.00
4511 NW 25 STREET SFH 2/2 $99,900.00
4848 NW 24 CRT, #301 CONDO 2/2 $35,900.00
7900 NW 50 St, #103 CONDO 2/2 $69,900.00
3408 HEATHER TERR VILLA OCCUPIED TBA
2611 NW 56 AVENUE #A104 CONDO OCCUPIED TBA
MARGATE
718 NW 55 AVE SFH 3/2 $170,000.00
MIRAMAR
3285 FOXCROFT RD #102-E CONDO 2/2 $116,900.00
NORTH LAUDERDALE
5961 NW 41 TERR SFH 3/1 TBA
6422 SW 18 COURT SFH VACANT TBA
OAKLAND PARK
2871 N OAKLAND FOREST #304 CONDO 2/2 $91,350.00
2810 N OAKLAND FOREST #307 CONDO 1/1 $29,900.00
114 LAKE EMERALD DR #110 CONDO 2/2 $79,900.00
3119 OAKLAND SHORES #C205 CONDO 2/2 $69,900.00
PLANTATION
10757 CLEARY BLVD, #307 CONDO 2/2 $82,500.00
9869 NW 2 CT SFH 4/2.5 $159,900.00
POMPANO BEACH
4501 W McNAB RD, #20 CONDO 2/2 $87,300.00
4140 NE 17 AVE SFH TBA
921 NE 23 STREET SFH 3/2 $86,500.00
SUNRISE
2259 NW 81 AVE SFH 3/2 $179,900.00
3730 NW 88 AVE #244 CONDO 2/1.5 $89,900.00
4380 NW 103 AVE SFH 3/2 $235,000.00
3825 NW 90 AVE CONDO TBA
9986 NOB HILL COURT CONDO 2/2 AUC $59,900.00
7401 NW 20 COURT SFH 4/2 TBA
TAMARAC
4515 TREEHOUSE LANE #12-D CONDO 2/1 $68,000.00
4431 TREEHOUSE LAND #28H CONDO OCCUPIED TBA
20 MEACHAM LANE TH 3/2.5 $79,900.00
7312 NW 76 DRIVE 1/2 DUP 2/2 $106,000.00
7735 NW 79 AVE #310 CONDO 2/2 $84,900.00
8700 CYPRESS WALK COURT T/H 3/2.5 $145,777.00
8709 CYPRESS WALK COURT T/H OCCUPIED TBA
6804 CYPRESS WALK TER T/H 2/2.5 + LOFT TBA
4435 TREEHOUSE LANE #27D CONDO OCCUPIED TBA
7152 SOUTHGATE BLVD CONDO 1/1 TBA
7403 NW 75 STREET T/H OCCUPIED TBA
7016 NW 64 STREET SFH 3/2 TBA
8910 NW 79 STREET SFH 4/2 + POOL TBA
4712 NW 44 ST SFH OCCUPIED TBA
9409 W McNAB RD, #103 CONDO 2/1 $49,900.00
WESTON
1455 SANDPIPER CIR SFH 4/2.5 TBA
For more information on these properties, please call Jason Donn @ 954-892-6244
Since peaking more than six years ago versus the world’s major currencies, the U.S. dollar has posted some dizzying declines. Only a few currencies in the world have actually declined vis-à-vis the sad buck since late 2001 – including the Zimbabwe dollar. That’s hardly a feet to be proud of considering hyperinflation has gripped the economically ravaged African nation over the last 12 months accompanied by 1,000% inflation.
There’s no doubt that since Nixon broke the gold standard in August 1971 the dollar has plummeted versus the world’s hardest currencies, including gold. Bulging trade and budget deficits, protracted military conflicts, bloated entitlement program spending and lingering financial institution bail-outs amid the ongoing credit crisis bode badly for the dollar longer term.
Indeed, you might say it’s the “beginning of the end” of American financial hegemony as long-term inflation erodes the dollars’ purchasing power and buys less which each passing decade. After all, to finance its enormous expenditures the United States, which is a reserve currency, prints its way out of financial turmoil by expanding the money-supply and growing inflation. The latest financial debacle since August 2007 promises to pile on even more debt, including toxic securities on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet.
As the years progress, the United States will become even more dependent on foreign governments and institutions to finance its daily consumption, currently running at roughly $2 billion per day, courtesy of international lenders.
But bear markets are interrupted and investors should recognize short-term investment opportunities as a result. That’s exactly what’s happening now with the dollar.
Busted Properties
Real estate also offers excellent values, particularly from rising foreclosures and bank repossessions. This is exactly what occurred in the 1989-1991 Savings & Loans crisis; several years later, vulture investors earned big profits from buying cheap properties.
In the most devastated real estate markets of Nevada, Arizona, California and Florida, investors can find an abundance of residential and even a growing universe of commercial properties gone bust. To be sure, financing has grown more difficult for even the most creditworthy of borrowers as banks balk at lending. Yet, many deals will be closed over the next few years as banks grow increasingly desperate to unload a truckload of properties at fire-sale prices.
Real estate in the United States is also extremely cheap when priced in euros, yen or most other currencies. In 2007, more than 20% of all residential property purchased in Manhattan was by Europeans. I expect that trend to accelerate in 2008, especially if the euro continues to soften.
Score another short-term victory for the global financial system. Unfortunately, taxpayers will eventually fund the latest salvo by the United States federal government.
The United States officially entered the mortgage lending business on Monday following the nationalization of Fannie Mae (NYSE-FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE-FRE), which combined are responsible for more than half of all mortgage lending or about $6 trillion dollars.
Fannie and Freddie were too big to fail. Without their participation in mortgage lending combined with their massive outstanding issuance of credit (bonds), the possibility of a default or collapse would have undoubtedly had global systemic consequences – perhaps making the Bear Stearns’ bail-out look like a peanut in comparison. Yes, Fannie and Freddie are that significant.
At the root of the credit crisis – now 13 months old – are the problems still widespread in U.S. housing.
As the world’s largest real estate market, Wall Street lunged onto the bull market in U.S. housing values from 2003 until 2007 by introducing all sorts of synthetic securities tied to residential housing across the country. These instruments, including asset-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations, were subsequently sold to global investors; now that the party is over many U.S., Canadian and European banks have been saddled with these illiquid securities that have plummeted in value, causing widespread losses. To date, global write-downs tied to mortgage-backed securities and other securities linked to subprime and busted credits total $500 billion dollars.
Paulson and the White House, including members of Congress, must have been sweating over the last several weeks as fears mounted in the credit markets. China, the biggest investor in government agency debt has been reducing its position since August while the Japanese and other Asian banks have also pared Fannie and Freddie debt. A “snowball” effect whereby dozens of banks would dump mortgage agency debt was rapidly becoming a possibility.
Without an official guarantee from Washington, the odds of a full-scale mortgage-backed crash was imminent. Paulson’s pre-emptive strike on Monday was therefore successful.
Spreads or the difference between risk-free Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed debt, remained elevated all year until yesterday. That rate was 2.74% last Friday or 6.40% -- the highest spread versus T-bonds since the credit crisis began. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage plunged from over 6.40% on Friday to 6.04% on Monday, alleviating credit stress on that segment of the mortgage market hugely influenced by agency lending. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that “jumbo” mortgage rates, or mortgages considered too large to be purchased by Fannie and Freddie climbed to 7.35% from 7.14%. Just how the jumbo market will react going forward is anyone’s guess; but the primary concern for the market is that lending giants Fannie and Freddie remain solvent and recapitalized by the federal government.
Paulson, a former Goldman Sachs chief, is no stranger to structuring deals. In some ways, the United States and its foreign creditors are lucky because anyone else holding this position would unlikely know how to put together such a complex rescue package.
The Treasury will recapitalize the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) by gradually buying preferred stock – a plan that will massively dilute existing stockholders. Fannie and Freddie shares collapsed about 85% yesterday.
I purchased intermediate and short-term Fannie and Freddie debt yesterday. Spreads should continue to narrow over the next several weeks as investors return to this market. These bonds, along with high quality corporate are among the best values today in fixed-income markets. Treasury bonds, however, offer poor values adjusted for inflation and are overbought.
Taxpayers, naturally, will fund this enormous bail-out. The Savings & Loans crisis in the late 1980s cost taxpayers about $300 billion dollars adjusted for inflation since 1989. This bail-out should easily match those figures and ultimately might even be twice that amount if housing values don’t stop falling soon.
Bear Stearns, Fannie and Freddie. Who’s next?
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