Jason Thomas

The market continues to strengthen on both the supply and demand side. The supply of homes is now sitting at 8630 homes for sale in the Edmonton area. Down from 9612 last month. On the demand side, the number of sales have bounced up to 1719 from 1541 in August. We are now in a market with a 5 month supply of inventory. Technically we are now in a balanced market.
Predictions? As I mentioned in August's wrapup, I think we will drop into the 6000 or less inventory range by the end of December. That should set us up for a strong spring market in 2009 where we could start to see price increases.

The pattern continues. Our listing inventory has dropped to 9612 from 10,335 in July. That is a big drop. If we continue at this rate, then our inventory could easily drop under 7000 homes for sale. Last year (2007) we saw a drop to the 7000 level, but the inventory didn't start falling until October. Therefore, we may even see 5000-6000 numbers for inventory. If we do see this level and our sales remain strong, then price increases could be expected in 2009. Those are mighty big "ifs", but the pattern and graphs are pointing in that direction. A 5000 level of inventory with 1500-2000 sales per month would definitely create a seller's market. Before everyone gets too excited, we won't be returning to the 50% annual increases in price soon. We should come back to the 5-7% annual price increase that we had in the early 2000's and late 90's IF the patterns continue.

As for sales, we were a little softer than July. In July we saw 1752 sales and in August we have seen 1541 sales. Softer than July yes, but this is much stronger than last year, August 2008 only saw 1229 sales.

Days on market has crept up, we are now at 63 days in August. We were at 55 days on the market in July. Two things can be the causing this. This could be a signal that the market is slowing. Or, is this a signal that sellers are starting to dig in their heels and are willing to wait for higher offers? September should answer a few more questions.

As the weather gets warmer, there's nothing more fun than taking the party outdoors. Whether you're having a backyard bash or an intimate gathering on your condo balcony or rooftop, here are some tips for a simple, sophisticated summer 'do.

Be deliciously different.
Think outside the burger, and try something like marinated vegetable skewers or grilled pizza. If you plan to barbecue something that falls apart easily, like fish or veggies, use a grill rack. Put a sprig or two of fresh rosemary on the coals while you're grilling. Not only will the food taste great, but your party will smell wonderful.

Serve a signature cocktail.
Set up a margarita or mojito station. Set out rimmed glasses, slice some limes, then serve the drink in pitchers with lots of ice and let guests help themselves. Be sure to offer lots of non-alcoholic options, too.

Let your guests help themselves.
Spend time enjoying your guests instead of serving them. Set up an elegant outdoor buffet by covering a side table with a crisp white tablecloth. Create "bouquets" of cutlery in vases, or make a neat pile of restaurant-style "roll-ups" with paper napkins. Decorate with candles, flowers and fresh herbs.

Have an upscale picnic.
For the ultimate casual get-together, plan a backyard picnic (or a picnic in the park) on a big blanket. Bring some cushions to keep everyone comfortable, and use serving trays as level surfaces for drinks, snacks and other wobbly items like vases of flowers and pillar candles.

Light up the night.
String holiday lights along railings and in trees. Go with white for an elegant look, or coloured lights for a more whimsical mood.

Inexpensive citronella torches add a great ambiance and get rid of bugs.

Set out lots of candles in open mason jars or glass hurricane covers. Group them in big multi-level bunches for an intimate feel, or space them in equal increments along a fence or railing for a modern touch.

Break out the marshmallows.
Pick up a portable patio campfire for unbeatable ambiance at your evening soiree. The campfire (available at some home improvement stores) looks like a stone-ringed pit, but is gas-fueled and easy to move around. Be sure to check fire codes in your area, and if you're entertaining on a balcony or a rooftop, check with your building to see what the rules are.

Be on bug patrol.
Use citronella lamps and candles to keep mosquitoes away, and put a bottle of insect repellent in plain sight so your guests don't have to ask.

Always remember the first rule of summer entertaining: keep it simple and enjoy yourself. Plan ahead, get everything ready well ahead of time, then sit down and enjoy the sunshine or starlight - and the warm company of friends and family.

Balsamic grilled asparagus
A delicious take on a warm-weather favourite

Snap tough ends off 1 pound of asparagus. Combine 3 tbsp balsamic vinegar, 1 tbsp olive oil, 2 tbsp chopped shallots, and a dash of salt and pepper. Drizzle over asparagus and let stand 30 minutes. Brush grill rack with oil, and grill 5 minutes on each side or until done.

Well July is here and that normally means a slowdown in activity in our market. Most people are surprised to hear that December and July are the two slowest months for number of units sold in the real estate market. That being said there are still homes selling, people just tend to have their minds on summer holidays and enjoying the short Edmonton summer. I've put together another graph showing our inventory versus sales.
The sales data has been quite strong, we are pushing 2000 home sales each month for the last 3 months. Actually they have been extremely consistent, 1823 in April, 1821 in May and 1852 in June.
Our inventory has finally started to crest, we actually dropped a little with the number of homes for sale on the market. At the end of May we were sitting at 11,006 homes for sale and now we are down to 10,817. This falls into normal inventory patterns of markets prior to 2006. We normally peak out in May and the inventory gradually falls to a low a the end of December.

There is an interesting graph that has come out from our Real Estate Board. It shows the relationship over the past 2 years between migration into the province and our listing inventory. We have went from extreme lows under 2000 homes for sale in a month to approaching 10,000. This graph clearly shows how the increased migration knocks the inventory down and vice versa when migration slows.
Most builders in the past two years were taking over 12 months to build a home. The increased migration was causing quite a building boom in the last two years. The only catch, was the time it took to build. If a home is not ready until 12 months or more and then the migration slows, the overhang of listing inventory starts to develop.
I think our situation is quite different then the inventory buildup and price declines in the U.S. markets. Many of those markets were "false booms". Speculators buying to flip, and builders overbuilding without the strong economic dynamics that there are in Edmonton. Did we see speculators in this market? Sure, but the difference is we have the employment and migration figures to justify the extra building.