This week brings us the release of four economic reports for the markets to digest, with three of them being considered important.
One of those three is one of the more important reports we see each month.
There is relevant data or events scheduled for each day except Thursday, so it will likely be another active week for mortgage rates.
May's Personal Income and Outlays data will be posted early this morning. This report gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending activity. They are important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 0.3% in income and a 0.1% rise in the spending portion of the report. Smaller than expected increases should be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.
June's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is the second report of the week. It will be posted late Tuesday morning. It is important to the financial markets because it measures consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are more confident about their own financial situations, they are likely more apt to make large purchases in the near future.
Current forecasts are calling for a reading of 60.3, down from last month's 60.8 reading. The lower the reading, the better the news for bonds and mortgage rates.
Friday has two reports scheduled, with the first coming from the University of Michigan who will update their Index of Consumer Sentiment for May. This index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend.
As with Tuesday's CCI, if consumers are more comfortable with their own financial situations, they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data has the potential to affect bond trading and mortgage rates.
The second report of the day and the last data of the week is the Institute of Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index for June late Friday morning. This index measures manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives on current business conditions. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed executives felt business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened.
Analysts are expecting a reading of 51.1. That would indicate that manufacturers felt business worsened from the previous month, when we saw a 53.5 reading. Good news for bonds and mortgage rates would be a weaker than expected reading, particularly something below the recessionary threshold of 50.0.
Overall, tomorrow and Tuesday's data should bring some volatility in trading and mortgage rates, but Friday's ISM report is definitely the most important of the week.
Competition can be stiff when multiple offers are placed on a house or condo.
There are ways to get ahead in the bidding war that will help your offer be selected.
1. Be first
If you are not working with a buyer's agent, you should be. Make sure that the agent knows that you want to jump on any appropriate properties as soon as it becomes available. Also, put a tight deadline on your offer so the listing agent can't use it to solicit other offers from interested buyers.
2. Be pre-approved
Although you likely can't pay all cash, if you have an approval from a lender saying you'll qualify for the necessary loan, you'll be in a stronger position. Because lending standards have toughened, be prepared to make at least a 20% down payment. To prove you're serious about buying, offer the seller a substantial earnest-money deposit as well - up to 3% of the purchase price.
3. Be highest
Obviously, sellers want to the the highest price possible for their property, so a generous offer will trump an all-cash one. But ask your agent to do a comparative market analysis first so you don't pay more than the market price. If you do, your deal could fall through - or you'll be asked to put up more cash - once the lender has the property appraised.
4. Be Easygoing
A recent survey done by the California Association of Realtors found that three-quarters of all sellers are putting their property on the market because of financial difficulties. While it isn't suggesting that you waive an inspection contingency, don't demand any monetary concessions, like a decorator's allowance, or help with closing costs.
Similarly, ask your agent to find out if some accommodations on time would suit the seller's needs - perhaps a quick closing date for a seller who is having trouble paying the mortgage, or conversely, a long rent-back after closing for sellers who need time to find another place to stay.
This week is very light in terms of scheduled economic reports that are relevant to mortgage pricing.
There are also two Treasury auctions taking place that may influence mortgage rates, but we may see the stock markets drive bond trading and changes to mortgage pricing a good portion of the week.
There is no relevant data scheduled for release today or Tuesday. Fed Chairman Bernanke will speak at the International Monetary Conference in Atlanta this afternoon, but I don't believe we should consider this a highly important event.
There could be reference to the some of the current financial crises overseas. However, unless something said by Chairman Bernanke is highly surprising, I suspect that his speech will have a minimal or no impact on today's afternoon rates.
The first economic report of the week comes Wednesday afternoon when the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book. This data details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region. It is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve to determine monetary policy during their FOMC meetings.
If it shows surprisingly softer economic activity, the bond market may thrive and mortgage rates could drop shortly after the 2:00 PM ET release. If it reveals signs of inflation growing or rapidly expanding economic activity in many regions, we could see mortgage rates revise higher Wednesday afternoon.
April's Goods and Services Trade Balance report will be posted early Thursday morning. This data gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit and will be released at 8:30 AM ET. It isn't likely to cause much movement in the markets or mortgage rates, but nevertheless forecasters are expecting to see a $48.7 billion trade deficit. It will take a wide variance from this projection for the data to influence mortgage rates.
The two relevant Treasury auctions scheduled will be held the middle part of the week. The 10-year Treasury Note sale is scheduled for Wednesday while the 30-year Bond sale will take place Thursday. Results of both auctions will be posted at 1:00 PM ET on the sale days. If investor demand was high, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading, however, weak demand could lead to selling and an increase to mortgage rates. It is common to see some pressure in bonds right before these sales as investors prepare for them, but as long as the sales are not weak those pre-auction losses are usually recovered once they are completed.
Overall, it likely is going to be a moderately busy week for the mortgage market. The most action will likely come during the middle days, assuming that the stock markets don't go into heavy selling or buying. In weeks like these where there is little factual economic data being posted to drive bond trading, the stock markets often take center stage.
Sizable stock gains should lead to bond weakness and higher mortgage rates, while stock weakness will likely allow improvements to mortgage pricing. I am considering Wednesday the best candidate for most active day in rates, but that is relying on the assumption the stock markets remain relatively calm this week.
To see daily market commentary, click here.
This week brings us the release of five important economic reports in addition to two Treasury auctions that may influence rates. Only two of the five reports are considered to be of fairly high importance to the bond market and mortgage pricing. The remaining reports are considered to be of moderate or low importance and will likely not heavily influence mortgage rates.
April's New Home Sales data will be released late Tuesday morning. This report gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand. However, it is actually the least important release of the week and probably will not have much of an impact on mortgage pricing because it tracks only approximately 15% of all home sales. It is expected to show little change in sales from March's level, meaning the new home portion of the housing sector was flat last month.
Wednesday has one of the week's more important reports scheduled with April's Durable Goods Orders being posted. This data gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket products.
It is currently expected to show a decline in new orders of approximately 2.0%, indicating manufacturing sector weakness. That would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this data is known to be quite volatile. Therefore, a small variance from forecasts would likely have little impact on mortgage rates Wednesday.
The first of two revisions to the 1st quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be released at 8:30 AM Thursday. The second revision to this report comes next month but isn't expected to carry much importance. The GDP is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth. Last month's preliminary reading revealed a 1.8% increase in the annual rate of growth. Analysts expect a slight upward revision to this reading with the consensus being a 2.0% rate of growth. If the upward revision is much stronger than expected, we may see the bond market react negatively and mortgage rates move higher because it would mean the economy was stronger than thought last quarter.
April's Personal Income and Outlays data is the first of two reports due Friday. It will be posted at 8:30 AM and gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. An increase in income means that consumers have more money available to spend. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this data can cause movement in the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are showing a 0.4% increase in income and a 0.5% rise in spending. Weaker readings would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates.
The second report of the day and the last relevant data of the week will come from the University of Michigan who will update their Index of Consumer Sentiment for May. It is forecasted to show a small increase from this month's preliminary reading of 72.4. A reading above 72.6 would be considered negative for bonds and mortgage pricing.
Overall, I think we have a fairly busy week ahead of us. The big report of the week is Wednesday's Durable Goods Orders. If Thursday's GDP revision varies greatly from forecasts, it can also lead to sizable changes in rates. There are also a couple of Treasury auctions that are worth noting. The 5-year Note sale is Wednesday and the 7-year Note auction will be held Thursday. Both may influence bond trading and possibly mortgage rates if they are met with an exceptional demand or if there is lackluster interest from investors.
The bond market will close early Friday afternoon ahead of next Monday's Memorial Day holiday. With all this, there is a pretty good possibility of seeing mortgage rates change several times this week- especially if there is more volatility in the stock markets. Accordingly, please proceed extremely cautiously if still floating an interest rate.
Like many baby-boomers today, you may be faced with an upcoming retirement and a lack of a retirement savings account due to the rough economic times of the past few years.
A recent CBS MoneyWatch article tackles this problem by suggesting resourceful ways to make retirement work for you.
One bold idea is to pair up with another married, retiring couple, pooling together Social Security income for a manageable budget. Social Security income at age 66 will be $2,000 per month, with an additional $1,000 per month for the spouse, resulting in a $36,000 per year income.
If you find a like minded couple, consider moving into a three bedroom house together, making the combined household income $72,000. This is higher than the 2009 national average income.
Another tactic is to delay retirement until age 70, in which case your monthly Social Security income will increase to $2,640 per month. In this situation, your spouse would not need to delay past age 66 to receive the $1,000 per month. "You'd want to file and suspend your Social Security income at age 66, so your spouse can start the $1,000 monthly spousal benefit income at age 66," advised the article.
At age 70, your combined income would be $43,680 per year following this plan. If you were to pair up with another married couple, that Social Security income would increase to $87,360 per year.
Your circumstances may not be right for such an arrangement, but this is just one example of creative and resourceful ways to head into retirement in this economic climate.
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