Jeffrey Tumbarello

Something's changing in FC/Shrt/Std ratios, some regions seeing some relief, others seeing more pain. Lee County's showing more pain (+4%) in the broad view.

South Cape Coral stands out clearly as a "pain center" in this view, North Cape shows a significant "relief center". LA in broad spectrum is beginning to move from painful to somewhat-relieved, with plenty of room for improvement. UEP areas where the future improved show less FC/Shrt %, though that may well be either temporary or my own wishful thinking. The longer view will tell the story more clearly..

INVENTORY vs. DEMAND - it'll end up being the driving force as usual.. "Usual" would be better than the calamity of our recent "Usual", but every day brings a whole new "Normal" these days.

We'll look forward to the newest "Normal" being something we can remember was a good time to be alive. If Mr/s. DEMAND doesn't die, Mr/s. Inventory will require a higher paycheck sooner or later. Mr/s. Inventory has reduced from 11,400 in Nov '08 to 10,800 today against a flood of 14,000 Mr/s Demands, all of whom have found themselves Owners and are spending their Cost Of Living in Lee County now (or their Tenants are).

It'll happen, it's how "IT" goes.

Trans types? Glad you (would have) asked:

The good news? 1,126 PDG just since 9/1/09.

The not-so-good news? We're probably going to have to learn to fly by OJT.

The nice part? This is when this SHOULD happen in a "balanced" cyclical tourist-driven market. Last year was a shock to many, expected by few, received by all regardless of expectations. It's why we call it "The Fall Season" in my world.

I'd expect these views to bring something like $120k avg / $81k Median as these come to closing (Sale$ vs. PDG @ List$).

MTD September Avg Sale$ is $126k/$85k, with about half of September on the books. That's UP from Aug ($122k/$83k), subject to change without prior notice (lag). :)


The short look-back - PDG since 9/1/09, all Res:

Active: 0 Pending: 1126 Sold: 0 Other: 0 Total: 1126
Bedrooms Bathrooms Square Feet List Price Selling Price DOM/CDOM
Minimum 1 1.00 600 $4,900 0/0
Average 3 2.12 1,651 $119,583 $0 71/93
Median 3 2.00 1,574 $80,000 $0 28/32
Maximum 6 5.00 5,732 $2,000,000 $0 953/1248

Slightly longer look back (3/1/09 PDG):

Active: 0 Pending: 2907 Sold: 0 Other: 0 Total: 2907
Bedrooms Bathrooms Square Feet List Price Selling Price DOM/CDOM
Minimum 1 1.00 600 $4,500 0/0
Average 3 2.16 1,687 $124,647 $0 78/103
Median 3 2.00 1,584 $84,900 $0 29/35
Maximum 6 6.00 5,732 $2,000,000 $0 1294/1294
Total Dollar Value $0

ALL PDG To Date:

Active: 0 Pending: 3002 Sold: 0 Other: 0 Total: 3002
Bedrooms Bathrooms Square Feet List Price Selling Price DOM/CDOM
Minimum 1 1.00 420 $4,500 0/0
Average 3 2.15 1,684 $128,341 $0 79/104
Median 3 2.00 1,585 $85,000 $0 30/37
Maximum 6 8.00 7,199 $2,000,000 $0 1294/1294
Total Dollar Value $0

So, I was doin' what I do when sleep doesn't happen... I shoulda
knocked myself out instead.

This fresh-off-the presses FRB Report can be found at:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/hist/h3hist1.txt

Double the REAL CASH money supply, fix the Banks, break the rest of the "little people" world by default. The Banks will multiply that cash by at least 10 times, likely borrowed @ 0% and "loaned" to the Treasury through T-Bills @ 2.5+% in 12-120 month laddered terms. The good news in that data? FRB doesn't dare raise the base interest rates while
these run their course, since it would squeeze the Banks all over again.

Note the BANKS still have the majority of the cash injections, but have dropped about $110B of it in TWO MONTHS with no positive results. Don't worry about the Banks, though - they'll be fine no matter what they do next.

Note also only .5T is listed as "Borrowed" - the rest of the gift is
PREFERRED STOCK, so it doesn't have to be listed as debt, just a "liability".

the money supply has went from 1.2 trillion to 1.6 trillion under Mr. Obama's watch. And since it is being handed to the banks, give it a multiplier of 10:1

There are three things that I can see happening:

1. Simple inflation
2. dollar collapse within the next 90 days and spiral into hyper inflation
3. Both of the choices may and probably will occur. Devaluation has already occurred in the now-factual doubling of the base currency, though its "formal" effect is staved off by fear in gov'ts outside our borders as well as inside our borders.

Can this trend go on for long (years) without effect? No

Do those who did it know the effect? Yes - the caving to the GS-built Treasury Chief(s) was a serious mistake, though "The Plan" was not the worst of the possible plans available. That "The Plan" was subterfuge is now historically factual - the REAL plan is now obvious and should be criminally prosecuted for its fraudulent and damaging realities. That won't happen.

Is/was there another way? Yes - GENTLY putting cash in the hands of the consumer and its employers would lessen the effect of a fiscal reset which HAD to happen once the Gov't forced Lenders to lend to those who simply could never repay. The Lenders took full advantage of the requirements, blowing a reduction in profit into a debacle of lost capital never before seen on earth. Pre-WWII Germany came close, but theirs was immediately inflationary without controls in place to stave off our outcome. By the way, Pre-WWII Germany was the BEST example of Keynesian Theory put in motion - it failed beyond belief in record time, bringing Germany to no other choice but expansive MILITARY budgets with the attendant military action to support the whole notion of fiscal expansion by Government spending (Keynes, pure and simple).


Essentially, we've now doubled base money (cash or its real equivalent), which will be multiplied/monetized at today's favored multiple - something like 30+ times. The effect on M2 and the now-unreported M3 will be pure disaster at some date in the future, but they'll stave off the damage as long as THEY NEED US AS CUSTOMERS - not a day beyond.

South America, India and Africa are being groomed for expansion at high speed. This will be a race to the finish line, we're in the lead as "economic serfs" by at least a neck, but losing ground fast against external nations chock-full of new customers for non-US goods.

USEFUL Hard assets and CASH - as always, these last longer than other "investments" in a true Depression. Gold is NOT a useful hard asset unless the bearer can escape to some place where it can be converted to useful currency. FDR knew that, his rendering of gold as ILLEGAL for personal ownership put the kibosh on all the "Hoarders" in June, 1933. History's clear, but few will even take the time to read it, fewer yet would believe that could happen again. NONE of those can say why they think it wouldn't happen, as they all have plans to flee with bags of gold, though they only hold CERTIFICATES which say they "own" some. That'll be darkly humorous if "The Real Crash" comes as it does - "Without Warning", though the bells ring for years prior to its arrival.

Other'n that, I don't know much about it.. I know this: This cannot continue for as long as most believe it might. The lag from action to effect in Government-driven fiscal policy is 9-18 months, can be "deferred" to 24 months at the most.

We're ticking past 10 today (from Oct 2008 - the first BLAST of capital into the vaults of Banks and NOT lent for productive economic support)...

In Q2, the ending cash
was $2B against $118B in Deposits..

Banks should be awash in cash (the big ones are, but it's locked down), Suntrust is BLEEDING it at 50% erosion in a single quarter.

I actually thought Friday might be "The Day" for Suntrust, but I don't think Ms. Bair has the money to swallow one that size right now. There are worse smaller Banks by the ton, she seems to be "saving" them by selling them off to mid-sized outfits & taking the hit for the downside for the moment.

Income (Qtrly shows STI has lost $1B YTD by Q2..):
http://www.quote.com/us/stocks/financials.action?sym=STI&page=incst&period=q

Balance Sheet (SCARY Stuff in Q2 vs Q1 Cash). Looks like they
issued/sold $2B in stock in the last Qtr (Add'l Paid in Capital) and
paid off $1B Preferred. They also reduced Performing Loans by $4B and paid down debt similarly (maturing notes, perhaps?). Of all the oddities, the CASH position is the most insane:

http://www.quote.com/us/stocks/financials.action?sym=STI&page=bash&period=q

EOQ3 just a few days out now - national "pundits" already warning of its results, but money is steadily pouring into the stock markets in a reverse of the trend of just a week ago. This might be the first year Q3 takes priority over Q2 in the financial world.

While the rest of the world crashes, we are increasing in sales! This data is a courtesy of one of our Corp Sponsors. All of our Corp Sponsors can be found at http://www.swflreia.com/businessdirectory.html If you are an investor these are the people you should be doing business with. If you have a service to offer investors, you should be a Corp Sponsor of the SWFL REIA Lee County

• Lee County SFR Sales August 2008: 710
• Lee County SFR Sales August 2007: 424
• Active listings Lee County 11567
• We absorbed 6% of the Inventory
• 73 Percent Increase Month over Month in Sales

Lehigh Acres

• Lehigh Acres August 2008: 124
• Lehigh Acres August 2007: 61
• Active Listings Lehigh Acres 2730
• We absorbed 5% of the Inventory
• 103 percent increase Month over Month in Sales

Cape Coral

• Cape Coral August 2008: 378
• Cape Coral August 2007: 184
• Active listings in Cape Coral 4293
• We absorbed 9% of the Inventory
• 105% Increase Month over Month in Sales

Fort Myers

• Fort Myers August 2008: 113
• Fort Myers August 2007: 132
• Active listings Fort Myers 2803
• We absorbed 4% of the Inventory

Final Notes

• Sales are up Year over Year.
• Corp. Sellers still dominate the market.
• Lehigh Acres seems to have found pricing desirable to buyers.
• The high foreclosure areas are the leading edge of increasing sales due to the inventory available.
• Short sales are still not prevalently closing
  • 21 SFR closed in 2007
  • 98 SFR closed in 2008
    • 5407 Active Short Sale Listings Currently.
• North Fort Myers seems to not be affected as much by Foreclosures. East of Slater road looks pretty much the same pre-2005.

Charts and Graphs will be posted later today in the Members section at http:www.swflreia.com Prepared by Cristina Tumbarello, Realtor she can be reached at cristina.tumbarello@yahoo.com