Jeffrey Tumbarello

Sept 2008 Lis Pendens Filings: 2462
Sept 2008 Deeds acquired by foreclosure: 912


Update from the August data: 686 of the Lis Pendens filed had a homestead exemption present

Notes:
· I was quoted heavily in the Media last month as to the one month drop in filings, the rest of the quote was let's wait till the end of Oct. 08 to call the trend based upon that drop.
· What Happened to the Fannie and Freddie Lis Pendens filings? They have 2 each? I have double checked my work on this. If I have an error on this I will correct.....
· We had an early month surge in per day filings with a drop off at the end of the month.
· Deeds transferred dropped. Expect many of the open cases to be resolved as the Clerk of the Courts is streamlining the process.
· The trend appears to have not abated. It has bounced up and down from month to month for the last year.
· If you are looking for hope, the per diem filings trended down as the month went on. From the first two weeks, I was extrapolating a 2800 plus month in filings.

SWFL REIA members have access to a detailed report with counts, charts and graphs in the members section of the website
For membership info Click Here

Complied and analyzed by:
Jeff Tumbarello, Director, SWFL REIA
Got questions? Email me.
Need more info?
You can hire us to perform studies like this at the objects of your choosing.
Email me at jeff@swflreia.com

While the rest of the world crashes, we are increasing in sales! This data is a courtesy of one of our Corp Sponsors. All of our Corp Sponsors can be found at http://www.swflreia.com/businessdirectory.html If you are an investor these are the people you should be doing business with. If you have a service to offer investors, you should be a Corp Sponsor of the SWFL REIA Lee County

• Lee County SFR Sales August 2008: 710
• Lee County SFR Sales August 2007: 424
• Active listings Lee County 11567
• We absorbed 6% of the Inventory
• 73 Percent Increase Month over Month in Sales

Lehigh Acres

• Lehigh Acres August 2008: 124
• Lehigh Acres August 2007: 61
• Active Listings Lehigh Acres 2730
• We absorbed 5% of the Inventory
• 103 percent increase Month over Month in Sales

Cape Coral

• Cape Coral August 2008: 378
• Cape Coral August 2007: 184
• Active listings in Cape Coral 4293
• We absorbed 9% of the Inventory
• 105% Increase Month over Month in Sales

Fort Myers

• Fort Myers August 2008: 113
• Fort Myers August 2007: 132
• Active listings Fort Myers 2803
• We absorbed 4% of the Inventory

Final Notes

• Sales are up Year over Year.
• Corp. Sellers still dominate the market.
• Lehigh Acres seems to have found pricing desirable to buyers.
• The high foreclosure areas are the leading edge of increasing sales due to the inventory available.
• Short sales are still not prevalently closing
  • 21 SFR closed in 2007
  • 98 SFR closed in 2008
    • 5407 Active Short Sale Listings Currently.
• North Fort Myers seems to not be affected as much by Foreclosures. East of Slater road looks pretty much the same pre-2005.

Charts and Graphs will be posted later today in the Members section at http:www.swflreia.com Prepared by Cristina Tumbarello, Realtor she can be reached at cristina.tumbarello@yahoo.com

First things first, most days I get some sort of prediction from someone about the state of the housing market. I have found that most of these are either driven by an agenda or by emotion. There is too much speculation as to what tomorrow may bring, when today is here, right in front of you. We usually will not know what happened today until tomorrow. So why even focus on tomorrow, when you have today! Use what you learned yesterday. It is often a waste of time and resources to speculate what will happen tomorrow in any sort of detail. With an empirical base of facts and historical references you can deduce a range of outcomes that tomorrow may bring. If are using all of those ranges in your business model, then good for you. If you are using one of those ranges, you are playing roulette. If the range of outcomes is based on anything but empirical facts, then you are playing "Russian" roulette. What is empirical? In economics, "empirical" generally refers to statistical or econometric analysis of numeric data. Other forms of observation-based hypothesis testing are not considered to be "empirics." The use of the adjective empirical, especially in scientific studies using statistics, may also indicate that a particular correlation between two parameters has been found, but that so far, no theory for the mechanism of the connection is known. Below are some thoughts based upon empirical evidence. Plan on, a good portion of the mortgage transactions, (2004 thru 2006) to default. We (SWFL) are at 2003 pricing. So people who bought houses in that time frame...... Most people buy houses, not HOMES. A HOME is the house you can and will pay for as long as it does not break you. People who live in houses well.......... It really boils down to; do you make your decisions from emotions' or logic? For 95 percent of the world it's all emotions. Foreclosure has become quite acceptable. You will be amazed in the coming years (today even) what a bankable loan is. The current generation of bankers gave away the income stream for fee's years ago. We will be seeing these cycles until that business model changes. Would you rather have 4 percent of the loan balance or the interest? Making money on the interest spread of a portfolio is what banking was all about, not fees. This is the aftermath of a mania; we have been doing this since recorded history was born. Watch and learn, so the next one does not bite you. That is about all you really can do. We as people have a predisposition go from greed to fear and vice versa. The speed of the world and pop culture are amplifying these tendencies. Welcome to the aftermath of Fractional Banking on Steroids, AKA CDO, SIV, etc. Pick your financial poison. We really do not know how bad it is because the Fed quit publishing M3 in 2005. It's not pertinent anymore, LOL. What is M3? The different types of money are typically classified as Ms. the number of Ms usually range from M0 (narrowest) to M3 (broadest) but which Ms are actually used depends on the system. The typical layout for each of the Ms is as follows:

• M0: Physical currency. A measure of the money supply which combines any liquid or cash assets held within a central bank and the amount of physical currency circulating in the economy. M0 is the most liquid measure of the money supply. It only includes cash or assets that could quickly be converted into currency.
• M1: M0 + demand deposits, which are checking accounts. This is used as a measurement for economists trying to quantify the amount of money in circulation. The M1 is a very liquid measure of the money supply, as it contains cash and assets that can quickly be converted to currency.
• M2: M1 + time deposits, savings deposits, and non-institutional money-market funds. M2 is a broader classification of money than M1. Economists use M2 when looking to quantify the amount of money in circulation and trying to explain different economic monetary conditions. M2 is a key economic indicator used to forecast inflation.
• M3: M2 + large time deposits, institutional money-market funds, short-term repurchase agreements, along with other larger liquid assets. This is the broadest measure of money and is used by economists to estimate the entire supply of money within an economy.

In the end, the worse it gets everywhere else, the better it should become here as the "Refugee Retirees" flee again to our Paradise. Go back thru history, 1991 thru 1993 was a time that lots of people moved to SWFL. So what is going on today? Here is a snapshot of Cape Coral, July 1-23^rd 2007 versus 2008, SFR home sales 2007 · 102 sales · Money in motion 28,968,595 · Average sale 284,006 · Median sale 239,500 2008 · 227 sales · Money in motion 41,136,410 · Average Sale 181,218 · Median sale 142,300 That is a 222 percent increase in the number of SFR Home Sales. The Average sale price is down. That means Cape Coral is affordable again. The money in motion is up. Money in motion defines the market. Title companies, the Government and Insurance companies obtain revenue by money in motion. It certainly looks like you could make some money in Cape Coral. FYI, in a declining market, you should strive to do business below the average price and price per SQFT. Instead of predicting what tomorrows market may be bring.... Yesterday data shows the way. This is encouraging. The world empirically is never as good or as bad as it seems on the streets and in the media. The world is either cyclical by design or maybe the experiment just works better that way. Any input, corrections and suggestions is greatly appreciated.

SWFL REIA General Meeting

June 18th, 6:00 PM LOCATED AT ISLAND PARK BRIDGE CLUB!

16520 S Tamiami Trl # 16
Fort Myers, FL 33908

Here is a little tidbit to make money, be under the average sale price and average price per SQFT in your market. Break the market down in 60 days blocks. The results will be telling. From 60 day block to 60 day block. The market is quite fluid right now.

2002 thru 2005, the seller's held the all the cards. The buyers do now. If we have learned anything the last few years. it's that, you can't win by fighting the market! It's basically swimming up a waterfall. It is of no use, you are much better swimming with the current.

This brings me to my point. The market is at best an emotional, wandering beast. It behaves within certain historical guides but each cycle is different in breadth and depth. As Real Estate Investors and Real Estate Professionals, it does not matter how the market behaves, its how we behave that decides our success.

I recently was honored (and humbled) with the offer of a part time, consulting position to work with the Shimberg Center for Affordable Housing, University of Florida. This happened as a result of a meeting. I shared some data and my thoughts with Gladys Schneider of the Florida Housing Coalition http://www.flhousing.org/ . I enjoyed the time spent with her, never thought it would lead to this. I hope to have a chance to make a difference.

So........Keep your mind open, your head up. Good things will happen! I promise! It's a great time to be in Real Estate! That is if you choose to see the new market. The Buyers Boom!

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I would like to welcome our newest trade corp. sponsorship:

SC Building Group http://www.scbuildinggroup.com/

SC Building Group, llc is devoted to making your construction experience more than just an endless flow of concrete, glass and metal. With over a decade of experience in the construction industry, we understand the importance of long term relationships built on trust and a commitment to provide outstanding service

28210 Old 41 Rd., #303
Bonita Springs, FL 34135
p 239.495.1494

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Are you Ready for when the Market turns? Do you know what to look for? I am doing an in depth break down On the foreclosure trends This Webnar's Cost will be 19.99 I will also cover what really caused the market to crash Part of that will also tell you why it will turn! Please email mhtml:{F429B031-9F75-458E-999B-9A085E1D88DB}mid://00002287/!x-usc:mailto:jeff@swflreia.com for more details.

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SWFL REIA General Meeting

This meeting is sponsored by our Newest Corp Sponsor Thomas Starck,, Real Estate Appraiser Thomas will speak for 10 minutes on current appraisal standards. Thomas sponsored a meeting to help educate people about the current market! Thanks Thomas. Knowledge withheld is Knowledge wasted! You can contact him at starckappraisals@comcast.net

March 19th , 6:00 PM

LOCATED AT ISLAND PARK BRIDGE CLUB! 16520 S Tamiami Trl # 16
Fort Myers, FL 33908 Click Here from Directions 6:00 to 6:30 we will be doing a Moderated, Open Forum, Buy, Sell, Trade Session

We will Evaluate Deals, Run Comps, and Perform Pro-Forma's

Please feel free to bring a deal in to be evaluated

Then We Present...

Thomas J Bruzzesi ....

Thomas Realty and
Investments Inc

His Topic will be:

How to be a "Prepared Investor For 2008"

Tom is quite excited about the future of the Real Estate Market in SWFL. He backs that up by buying properties every week! I (Jeff Tumbarello) can attest to Tom's acumen as, he has bid me and my partner off the Courthouse Steps a few times.

Here is a little blurb Tom Wrote about himself

Hello, my name is Thomas J. Bruzzesi and I am 43 years old. I was born
and raised in New Jersey. I am a High School Graduate and after not
being accepted in the United States Marine Corp. at the age of 18
years, I asked myself what do I do know? Well, I worked as a carpenter
with my uncle for approximately 2 years and then as an electrician for
13 years. I moved to Florida in 1992 and started my career in real
estate investing. My ex-girlfriend and I had bought 38 rental units
in 10 months and ran that business for 4 years. I received my real
estate salesperson license in 1994 and then received my real estate
brokers license in June of 1995. I opened Thomas Realty and
Investments Inc. in January of 2000 and have owned and operated this
business for over 8 years. I started selling foreclosures and
wholesale properties out of the Fort Myers MLS and averaged
approximately 40 to 50 properties a year for almost 4 years. I met my
partner around January of 1993 and still to this day we have a great
partnership. He introduced me to the foreclosure sales and taught me
some of the business and 5 years later I have been a major success at
the foreclosure sales. I have bought almost 300 properties to date and
have been successful on almost all of them. I have a degree(awarded by
myself) in title search and resolving title issues, real estate
foreclosure law, case law, real estate sales, rehabing properties,
etc. etc.. In 2007 I was featured on live Fox News channel 4 and
interview about the current foreclosure situation. This is a little
bit about me and what I do. I have a lot to share with other people

Thomas J. Bruzzesi

REIA Members - FREE Non-Members - $20 First Timers - $10.00

For more info (800) 605-2910 Ext. 120 or 239-247-5061