John Donnell

Recap of First Half 2008 Home Price Performance
By Lon Welsh and Terry Wenze, Your Castle Real Estate.

The average home price in Metro Denver increased +2% in the full year 2005 to the full year 2006. Comparing 2006 to 2007, the average home price across the metro dropped 3%, to $303,000. The half of 2008 was $275,000 vs. the first half of 2007 was $306,000: a 10% decrease. These numbers will be slightly different than Metrolist, as they are just Denver Metro and don't include outlying areas like Fort Collins, Colorado Springs, or Boulder.

The average price of a foreclosure dropped -6% to $168,000 in the first half of 2008. The average short sale was steady at $212,000. The average price of a non-distress sale decreased 5% to $352,000. Sales volume was down for single family homes. Foreclosure and short sale volume is up and non-distress seller volume is down.

Some areas did better than others. The attached chart shows different neighborhoods in our region. Each region has the neighborhood's name and the percentage of sales in the last twelve months that were either short sales or bank-owned properties. The second line has the price change the twelve months from July 2007 to June 2008 vs. the twelve months immediately preceding. Next, you'll see the average home price in the last twelve months and the average days on market (DOM) in the last twelve months.

There had to be at least twenty sales in the last year for an area to be included. The numbers are more reliable in areas where there were more sales.

The good news is the last four times the market had a change from a buyers market to a sellers market, or vice versa, it was preceded by a change in the DOM. DOM for homes declined in the first and second quarters of this year. Too soon to call it a trend, but it is a favorable sign. Another great indication of hitting the bottom: monthly prices in DSW and AUN have been relatively steady for seven months, after falling rapidly from 2005 to 2007.


Source: Your Castle Real Estate analysis, MLS data

Question or need more detail? Call Lon Welsh at 303 619 0633 or LonWelsh@YourCastle.org

(c) Copyright 2008 Your Castle Real Estate

If you have not heard already, the inventory of home on the market in Denver has been declining. This is not true in many regions of the county. Your clients, who often only see national headlines, might not be aware of this favorable news. Our market has some unusual factors at work. Let's explore them, so you can better help your clients.

If you look at the first chart (MOI 1), you'll see the MOI (months of inventory) for Denver's suburbs on the bottom axis and the average sales price in that suburb on the axis on the left side. Denver metro currently has about six months of inventory (a balanced market, on average), but you can see there is a lot of variety from one city to the next. Lower cost areas, such as Thornton, are seeing inventory move fast. Sellers (mainly banks) don't have to wait long for offers. Thornton's average price in the last year was around $250,000 and the average MOI was about 3 months. Greenwood Village, on the other end of the scale, had about 13 MOI and an average price of about $1.4 million. Sellers are suffering there. The city of Denver is about in the middle.

If you look at the second chart (MOI 2), you'll see the MOI information sorted by the price of the home. In some cases, this might be more useful when you meet with clients. The city of Denver, for example, has many neighborhoods with homes under $100,000, and they are selling fast. On the other hand, upscale neighborhoods like Cherry Creek and Hilltop have significant levels of inventory and it's taking a long time to get homes sold, especially over the $1 million price barrier.

The left part of the chart show what percent of the active listings are REO (in red) and which are regular sellers (in green). For homes priced between $0 and $100K, regular (e.g.,, non-bank) sellers are 17% of the active inventory, but only 12% of the sales in the last twelve months. You can see on the left that since they are not getting their "fair share" of the sales, the MOI for the regular sellers under $100K is 2.7 months. For REO under $100K, it's a blazing 1.9 months. This probably isn't a surprise to any Realtor that has written an offer for a low priced REO and the listing agent has told them their buyer is competing with ten other offers. It's a strong seller's market at this price point!

Compare the homes from $480K to $1MM. Here, MOI is around 14 months - a very slow market. Your seller's experience with marketing time depends greatly on their price. I hope this information will help you demystify our market for your clients.

The big message has not changed since last quarter - it's still a great time to be a buyer in the condo market. Prices are at a three year low in many areas, and interest rates on mortgages are still historically low.

The average condo price in Metro Denver declined 4% between 2006 and 2007: from $187K to $180K. Homes dropped 3% in that time period. Looking just at the first nine months of 2008 vs. the same time period in 2007, the price dropped 6%: from $181K to $172K. Homes dropped 11% in that time period. From their peak prices in 2006, condos have dropped around 9.5% while homes have dropped 12%. These numbers will be slightly different than Metrolist, as they are just Denver Metro and don't include outlying areas like Fort Collins, Colorado Springs, or Boulder.

Some areas did better than others. The attached chart shows different neighborhoods in our region. Each region has the neighborhood's name and the percentage of sales in the last twelve months that were either short sales or bank-owned properties. The second line has the price change the twelve months from October 2007 to September 2008 vs. the twelve months immediately preceding. Next, you'll see the average condo price in the last twelve months and the average days on market (DOM) in the last twelve months. There had to be at least twenty sales in the last year for an area to be included. The numbers are more reliable in areas where there were more sales.

Last quarter, we reported that days on market (DOM) had been declining for condos, which should be a leading indicator that we are due for price increases soon. That still seems to be the case.

As investors we face a number of very real and very scary challenges. Making sense of this market is no mean feat and one has to be very careful with his or her investment. However, we usually think about danger as financial. Unfortunately, on rare occasion it can be even worse than that. The majority of the homes investors are buying these days are vacant and once in a while people break in and live in these properties illegally. The last thing you want to do is walk in on someone camped out in a house, perhaps conducting illegal an activity. This is no joke, you want to be HEARD when you walk into a property that is supposed to vacant. So make a lot of noise when you're at the front door. I always knock loudly before entering. Stomp your feet a little. Yell "Hello!" a couple of times. When you start walking down into the basement repeat the process. The goal is to have whoever is inside hear you and not panic and do something stupid. I hope you never need this advice, but keep it in mind the next time you visit a foreclosed home.

A lot of investors ask what an egress window is and when one is needed. Technically, it's a window for a room below grade that a municipality has deemed large enough to be safe for exit in case of emergency. While there are some variations, the window needs to be large enough that a firefighter with an oxygen bottle on their back could get in, then carry out an injured person in a fire. Most often, it's associated with a basement bedroom window, making it a legal bedroom. Basement bedrooms without egress windows are illegal. Installing an egress window makes them legal. The confusion is that different cities, counties and agencies have different size requirements and height-above-floor requirements for these windows. Therefore, before you start cutting into the concrete foundation you better make sure you've visited the local building department to get their requirements. In addition, HUD, distributing Section 8 vouchers, also has their own requirements for egress windows. So if you're going to rent to a Section 8 tenant make certain you know what their requirements are. If you don't, you won't get credit for that basement bedroom and get way less rent than you expected - believe me it happens every day. To be honest, there are probably hundreds if not thousands of rentals in Metro Denver that have basement bedrooms without egress windows. In my opinion, this is not only illegal, it's immoral. And if that wasn't enough to discourage you from having one, ask yourself what happens if there is a catastrophic fire and someone dies in your illegal basement bedroom. Not good! For about $1,500 - $2,500 you can get a competent contractor to install an egress window (only one is required per basement bedroom) and sleep better at night.