Jerry Gardner

Usually when people think of fall color they think of New England, especially Vermont or Connecticut. Every year though, northern Michigan, the Upper Peninsula and northern lower peninsula are inundated with tourists seeking the brilliant colors of fall. The fall color tours are one of Michigan's biggest seasons. Since I'm posting these so late in the year they may not do justice but at least you get the idea.

I wanted to let people know that Southeast Michiganhas its fair share of fabulous color itself. Quaint towns just outside of detroit like Plymouth and Northvillehave parks and downtowns that flash in an array of oranges, yellows, rusts and just about anything else you can think of.

So if your clients want a fun vacation in late September or October, they wont go wrong coming to Southeast Michigan.

O.K. maybe not all of them. There is an agent in my office who does a lot of bank owned transactions and she's upright, honest and helpful. I can think of two or three others around the Western Wayne, Oakland County area of Southeast mi that are the same way.

Isn't that sad? Only a handful of agents who do work for the banks are actually solid, honest agents. The rest are, in my opinion, well....read the title again.

Someone may be upset by this post. If you are, you can reply with a disagreement as long as it's a cogent argument against my points. If you flame me, I'll just figure you're part of the problem and I cut too close.

Some may ask why I'm posting this for all to see as opposed to members only. It's just that I feel that clients and the public in general should know how these agents are treating other agents. If agents are being treated unfairly so are the clients they work with.

As you may be able to tell, I've been burned a few times over the last few weeks. Here's the senario. It may sound familiar.

A client calls to see a home that came on the market that day. We get in that day. I call the agent with an offer that day. Low and behold he already has three offers, all cash. He tells me there's no reason to put in another offer. Then I ask if these offers were asking or above. One of the offers is close to asking, he replies. I then say we're coming in over asking and I hear the panic in his voice. "Hurry and get it in because the other offers have already been submitted!"

I send the offer in but it suddenly is PENDING in the system. When I call the listing agent, he has an offer 1,000.00 higher than ours, so we're out. Later when the sold report comes up, sure enough, it's the lisitng agents buyer who had a conveniently higher offer than ours. No highest and best, no call to compete.

I don't know about other states but this is a very common around the Detroit area. And it needs to end.

Does it seem strange to anyone that most REO agents are the lowest of the dregs of our business? Someone who wasn't even in Real Estate 2 years ago and won't be when the market turns around? Or someone who was a marginal agent for years and suddenly gets in with a bank?

My broker recently attended the Michigan Association of Realtors (MAR)convention and you may be surprised at the number one item that MAR was concerned with. No it wasn't the economy. It was the sudden and profound drop in professionalism in our business. MAR and NAR are aware of the problem but what are they doing about it.

My next entry will discuss who's to blame for this and, hopefully, what we can do about it.

Since it's the beginning of a new week, I thought we'd start off with some good news. Plenty of time for the junk later on.

As I've mentioned a couple of times, inventory in the local Detroit market seems to have leveled off. For those of you who have been following my blogs this will be old news but for newbies here's a quick refresher.

Inventory is the leading indicator of the Real Estate market. Prices are the lagging indicator, simply meaning that prices follow the market. Prices indicate where the market was, not where it is. This is why it's so hard to time a purchase by looking at current prices. By the time prices rise, the market has been in recovery for some time and you missed the bottom.

O.K., since this isn't an economics lesson I'll get on to Real Estate. We look at 3-6 months of inventory as a "normal market". This is where there is enough inventory to allow buyers a choice but not so much that they don't have to buy. Prices should stay relatively stable at this level. More than six months and we have a buyers market. There are a glut of homes and buyers can pick and choose what they want. Less than six months is just the opposite. Buyers have to jump on the first house they see and there will probably be multiple offers. They more than likely have to offer more than asking price. There! That takes care of that.

In recent studies I've conducted of the market show that inventory levels in the Detroit area stabalizing. That means prices should stabalize as well. Here're some examples. The City of Detroit is showing an inventory supply of 5.81 months in June of '09. Contrast that with 20.14 in march of '08 and the difference is amazing. Other towns have had similar stabalization. Livonia showed 15.60 in March of '08 and 6.65 in June of '09. I also have levels for Troy, Novi, Northville Plymouth and other cities, so if you want more detail, give me a call or e-mail and I'll get you the stats.

What all this means to us as consumers is there may be good news on the horizon. It's too early to party in the streets but a small private "whoo-hoo" maybe appropriate. A little hope is a good thing.

Yep, here it is again. Random musings about the week that was and the week that will. And awayyyyyy we go.

What did Tennessee...

Some dear friends of mine are taking a trip to Nashville for a few days. Since much of my family lives about halfway between Nashville and Memphis, I've visited both often. Here're a few thoughts.

I love Nashville. It's very clean, the food is good and the last time I was there there was a guy playing his guitar and singing in an ice cream shop. And for a certified history geek, the Hermitage, Andrew Jackson's house is a must see. Yep, if I were Big and Rich I'd be "ridin' up and down Broadway on my old stud Leroy", too.

Still, given the chance I think I'd pick Memphis. It's not as clean, although the cobblestone streets and trolley's are pretty cool. What Memphis has is soul!Between Sun and Staxx records (two early pioneers of Rock and Roll and soul) and the Bar-B-Q, it can't be beat. Beale St. might be a little over rated but you can't get a better meal than at The Rendezvous. If that doesn't suit you you can take cab to Neely's.

I don't want to sound like a travelogue for Memphis but you should try it if you get the chance.

I've attached a little song here by John Hiatt that explains the differences.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwhLdr01c6U

A Lot of Yelling, Not Much Getting Done

There's still a lot of discussion about the disruptions at town hall meetings. I don't think that yelling down your opponent does anything to help your cause so I wish they'd stop. At the same time, calling people who disagree with you and exercise their constitutional right to do so Nazis and un-American is unacceptable. Let's all act like adults and try to come to a solution.

Detroit Market Review

Last week I mentioned that inventory in the local marketis leveling off. This is good news for sellers and the market as a whole. Well last Sunday, no less an authority thanThe Detroit Free Pressagreed with me. O.k. not me specifically, they just said the same thing that I;d been saying for months. Inventory, not price, drives a market. Price is a lagging indicator of inventory. If there are less homes on the market prices will go up. 3-6 months of inventory indicate a normal market.

Inventory has been hovering around 4-5% in Detroit and 6-8% in the surrounding suburbs. Too early to call an end to the down market but good signs all around.

Great Saying of the Week

"A man does not attract that which he wants but that which he is" James Allen, As A Man Thinketh.

Have a great week.

It may be afternoon by the time you get this but I did start it in the morning. That counts, doesn't it? Just some general and random musings on the week that was. And away we go...

Full Disclosure

Politically I've voted for Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians (there was that "leave me alone" period) and Independents. I try to look for someone who at least, seems honest, has his/her country, state, city's interests at heart and will look me in the eye. If someone meets those qualifications, they have a fighting chance. That being said, very few in office would get my vote right now.

Health care

I'm concerned about health care in our country.I'd like to find a way that everyone who needs and want coverage could get it. I'd also like people who like what they have to be able to keep it. I don't think the system being put through Congress now will do either of those things. Barney Frank, powerful Democratic congressman said point blank that this bill is the first step to a "single payer" system. That is what Canada and Britain have now and no one likes it. I think if this bill, or anything similar to it passes, we will be bankrupt in a few years. There's no way the poor won't be taxed as heavily as the rich. It'll be called Excise tax or sales tax or something else, but it will be there. Let's find a better way.

Stop Wining

Keeping with politics and health care, I think it's hilarious that the Democrats are screaming about the protests happening at the town hall meetings. They yell that the participants are all plants by the Republicans. That may be true, probably is, but the Dems did the same thing for the last eight years. For them to decry the Republicans for stealing a page out of their playbook is the height of hypocrisy.

Credit Given Where Cedit Due

Hats off to Governor Jennifer Granholm (D) of Michigan. It was just announced that over 1.5 Billion dollars is coming to Michigan and my town of Livonia. Battery cells that had been made overseas and assembled here will now be made here. I don't know how much influence Granholm had in the decision, Thaddeus McCotter (R) the Livonia congressman may have had some pull as well. i know this though, if the jobs had gone somewhere else, like a lot of auto plants did, we'd be screaming for her head.

Finally

There was some good news in the Real Estate market in the Detroitarea recently. In an informal survey of local cities, inventory stayed about the same while in some towns, inventory actually dropped. What does that mean for you? Inventory is the leading indicator of the real estate market. If inventory is higher, there's more to choose from, so prices drop. If there's less inventory, prices stabilize or go up. It's too soon to call a recovery, but good news is good news.