Julian Hardaker

Aspen Glen is the premier gated golf course community in the lower part of the Roaring Fork Valley. The Jack Nicklaus designed golf course has won numerous awards and enjoys a significantly longer season than some of the golf courses closer to Aspen. The spectacular club house with pool, tennis and gym facilities at Aspen Glen enjoys incredible views of Mt. Sopris and is a popular venue for local events.

Like all golf course communities, Aspen Glen has been affected by the economic crisis and prices have fallen significantly from their peak in 2007-2008. Probably due to the general financial strength of the typical Aspen Glen resident, the neighborhood has not been as affected as other parts of the valley by foreclosures.

In the last 12 months, there have been 11 residential sales in Aspen Glen, with prices ranging from $475,000 to $2,750,000. The median sale price was $1,050,000 and the average list to sale price reduction was 20%.

Currently there are 43 properties listed for sale, showing that there is still a significant oversupply. Asking prices range from $485,000 to $2,400,000. There are 3 bank owned properties currently for sale.

Based on the absorption rate of 46 months and the median days on market of 221 days, in my opinion, prices will need to come down further before sales pick up. This being said, every seller sets their own price and the properties that are selling are the ones that reflect a true value.

if you would like more information on Aspen Glen, including a list of properties available or reent sales, please contact me at Julian@TheBestWayHome.com. For more area information, please visit my website at www.TheBestWayHome.com or www.FaceBook.com/TheBestWayHomeRE or call me on (970) 309-5169

June, 2011

With each passing month our local market between Aspen, Glenwood Springs and Rifle is inching its way back to an equilibrium between supply and demand, but we are still not there yet. All indications suggest that 2011 will turn out to be the best year for buyers.

Here is the monthly commentary from our friend Joe Carpenter at American National Bank in Rifle:

What do flood waters and housing inventories have in common? Answer: They both rise and fall.

As we're experiencing record run off from the snowpack of the past season and see the rivers reaching or exceeding flood levels in many areas, I can't help but draw a parallel to the local housing market over the past three years where we've seen inventory levels swell as a dramatic decline in sales dammed the flow of transaction activity and flooded the market. Like the flood waters, the gage of whether housing stock is rising or receding is a function of the relationship between what is flowing in (new listings) and what is flowing out (sales) with consideration given to the existing levels (total inventory). Flood waters are expected to reach their peak for the season in this area any day now but in that regard, the housing market is well ahead having reached its high water mark in January of 2009 where we saw a stunning imbalance of nearly 9 listings for each sale and an absorption rate of over 73 months! The housing waters have been receding steadily ever since and the trend continued during the past two months.

April results for the broader market (Aspen to Parachute) reflected a listing-to-sales ratio of 1.28:1 on 150 new added units to a respectable 117 sales. One would have to go all the way back to 2007, the peak of the market, to find a single month in which the balance of listings to sales was as close as this. The absorption rate fell to just over a 12-month supply compared to over 43 months a year earlier and nearly 48 months in April of 2009. The western suburbs (New Castle to Parachute) also set another new record in April for recovering market balance posting just 1.12 listings for each sale (also a best since 2007) and an absorption rate of a scant 6 months compared to 27 months a year earlier and nearly 44 months in April of 2009.

May results reflected an increase in listing activity to 200 units typical of the spring but well below May of the two prior years which had 256 and 288 new added units for the month. Meanwhile, sales for the May posted another good showing at 97 units compared to 63 in the same month a year earlier and twice that of the 49 units recorded in May of 2009. The absorption rate as of May month-end stands at about 17 months, nearly half that of a year earlier where it stood at 32 months. Similar trends were reflected in the western suburbs for May.

The housing figures are as telling of the conditions as the flood gauges posted in the rivers. There is no question that the market is well on its way to recovery. Just the same, there remains an excess amount of "standing water" with 1,631 available residential units for sale as of May month-end, including 364 units in the western suburbs. Prices will remain suppressed until the inventory of distressed sales, now about 40% of the market, has run its course. Once the market is separated from those that HAVE to sell from those that WISH to sell, the artificially low prices that currently establish "market value" will evaporate. At that point, a new stage and a significant change in the dynamics of the housing recovery will have occurred. It's not of question of "if", but "when". And it's evident from the statistics that it's getting closer by the month.

(Courtesy of Joe Carpenter, American Nationa Bank, Rifle CO (970 625-2895 - Joe.Carpenter@anbbank.com)

(2/16/09) WOW - THEY JUST REDUCED IT AGAIN TO $15 MILLION - THAT'S $11 MILLION LESS THAN THE ORIGINAL ASKING PRICE!!!)

Yes, even in Aspen we are seeing foreclsoures - four have been filed so far in '09 - certainly a very small number in comparison to many parts of the country but it shows that even the super wealthy can be affected by the economic downturn.

This particular home was featured during the X-Games as the base for Target's extreme athletes - replete with private chefs - big screen tvs, masseuses and so on - 14,400 square feet on 8.5 acres.

Built as a spec home and originally listed at $26 million, the asking price has already been reduced to $19,5 million. The note that is being foreclosed on is a paltry $4.6 million but there are many more (24) additional liens filed against the property.

It seems most likely that the home will be purchased before the note is foreclosed, probably at a pretty steep discount. They say cash is king and in the current market it seems especially true.

Prices in the Aspen Real Estate Luxury Market

The world over, Aspen is known as a "must-own" town for the ultra wealthy. When you see a 6,000 square foot lot listed in town for $3,250,00, you can not but be reminded of the tried and true real estate axiom; location, location, location!

So how have prices been holding up in the face of this global economic crisis? Well, it is certainly true that sales have fallen significantly - down 40% from 2007. But in terms of prices, somewhat surprisingly, there has not been a significant change. This is perhaps explained by the extraordinary power of the Aspen name. Celebrities, Intellectuals, Business magnates, political leaders and power brokers the world over are drawn to Aspen.

Aspen is a place where, once people visit, they dream of owning a second home or retiring. For many, being right in the heart of town or right next to the ski slopes is the most important factor in their real estate choices. However, a growing number of families are looking just a short twenty minute drive away in the mid-valley area around the increasingly popular town of Basalt; described by many as "the way Aspen used to be". And of course the additional advantage for many is the proximity to the city amenities of Glenwood Springs with its award winning hospital, world famous hot-springs and big-box stores.

Indeed when you make the comparison, the numbers are quite illuminating. Three million dollars can buy you the aforementioned 6,000 square foot vacant lot in downtown Aspen, a twenty year old 1,700 square foot condominium on the slopes at Snowmass or a brand new 6,275 square foot custom luxury home on 3.5 wooded acres in the mid-valley area.

An Aspen home with the Aspen lifestyle at a fraction of the cost - This is where the smart-money is investing in their generational legacy.

Click on the following links to see the different properties:

Ski-in / Ski-out condo in Snowmass

Vacant Lot in Aspen

Custom Home 20 minutes from Aspen

How's the Market? This is everyone's favorite question for Realtors and it somehow suggests that there is just one answer. The truth is that any market has opportunities and if it is bad for sellers, it will be good for buyers.

What anyone who follows our market knows is that prices have dropped. It is impossible to put one number to quantify exactly how much. Different sectors of a market perform differently. However, by taking a couple of examples, we can quickly get an overall sense.

My own house in Glenwood Springs was appraised about 6 months ago at $695,000. A couple of weeks ago, in order to take advantage of the low interest rates, we had it appraised again for a refinance. It was appraised at $595,000. That is a 15% drop.

An example in the Castle Valley subdivision of New Castle shows a similar trend. The highest sale price for one of the town homes was $335,000 at the beginning of 2008. Currently a similar town home is likely to sell for around $295,000, or a 12% drop.

This is great news for buyers and not great for sellers. As for those who have no plans to move in the next couple of years, it makes hardly a jot of difference!

In purchasing a home it is the combination of the sale price and the interest rate on a loan that give us the true cost for the buyer. Just a few months ago FHA rates were at 7%. Recently they have dropped to 5%. Using the town home in New Castle provides some illuminating numbers.

If the purchaser who paid $335,000 got a 7% loan, their monthly payment would be around $2,500. If someone were to purchase the same town home now for $295,000 at a 5% rate, their payment would be more like $1,800 - a $700 difference!

The last factor for first time home buyers to consider is the cost of renting v. owning. This town home currently rents for around $1,600. With a purchase payment of $1,800, about $350 a month goes to the principal, not to the landlord! Add to this the tax deduction that homeowners receive - in this example it could be worth around $300 a month (check with your accountant on this one).

If interest rates climb back to 7% (still a very reasonable rate compared to the 15% that homebuyers were paying in the 80s!), the payment would increase by around $360 a month.

Storms pass and this may be the perfect time to make hay while it is still raining!

(Julian Hardaker is a Realtor with RE/MAX Mountain West in Carbondale, CO and serves on the board of the Glenwood Springs Association of Realtors. He can be reached at (970) 309-5169 or julianhardaker@remax.net)