Jim Hale - On the MOVE for You! Eugene - Springfield Oregon Real Estate

Here is the break down for single family home sales for

September, 2009

in Eugene, OR's

RIVER ROAD RMLS Market Area

SHOWN BY type of sale: REGULAR SALE, SHORT SALE, OR BANK-OWNED SALE

9 Single Family Homes sold in September:

Short Sales: Bank Owned:

1360 Skipper $250,000 None

Here is the break down for single family home sales for

September, 2009

in Eugene, OR's

SANTA CLARA RMLS market area

SHOWN BY type of sale: REGULAR SALE, SHORT SALE, OR BANK-OWNED SALE

24 Single Family Homes sold in September:

Short Sales: Bank Owned:

4325 Berry LN $250,000 3733 Kendra $137,511

3760 Lancaster $180,000 380 Ruby $125,000

583 Clairmont $160,000 4564 Doyle $225,900

4110 Victoria LN $250,000

3719 Julia LP $244,000

2457 Lenore DR $125,000

73 Larksmead $492,500

Here is the break down for single family home sales for

September, 2009

in Eugene, OR's

FERRY STREET BRIDGE RMLS market area

SHOWN BY type of sale: REGULAR SALE, SHORT SALE, OR BANK-OWNED SALE

18 Single Family Homes sold in September:

Short Sales: Bank Owned:

145 N. Garden Way $150,000 2850 Van AV $167,475

405 Spyglass $425,000 1428 Gilham RD $300,000

How does the Case-Shiller Index of the prices of homes sold since 1987 vary among West Coast cities?

The Case-Shiller Index reports of the following West Coast metro areas each month (on the last Tuesday of the month):

Seattle

The most recent report was published on October 17 for the month of August, 2009.

The following graph shows the relative fluctuation in home prices in the five metropolitan areas over the last 22 years.

The focal point of this chart is in the approximate center (both vertically and horizontally).

The five cities took five different paths in getting to that year 2000 level.

The five cities took drastically different but somewhat similar paths after that date:

Seattle home values since 2000 look a lot like those for Portland. It's no surprise that those two Northwest sister cities chart in tandem.

Seattle's high Case-Shiller Index value was 192.3 experienced in July, 2007 -- that means values were then 92.3% higher than in January, 2000.

The Emerald City appears to have bottomed at 149.03 in March, 2009.

Oregon's largest metro area also hit its home price high in July, 2007 -- at 186.51 -- with prices up 86.51% over the year 2000.

Portland may have bottomed at 146.85 in April, 2009.

The Bay Area saw a stutter in its graph in 2001 (the DotCom bust?) but then climbed well ahead of the northern cities.

The SF Case-Shiller high came in May, 2006 at 218.37. That means prices more than doubled in just over six years.

But SF's bust has been worse than that in the Northwest. San Francisco's bottom was at 117.74 in March, 2009 -- leaving home prices only one-fifth higher than in 2000.

L.A. home prices soared higher than those in San Francisco -- but they did not fall so low.

The Los Angeles Case-Shiller high was at 293.74 in September, 2006. That means home prices nearly tripled in six years.

The bottom came at 159.18 in May, 2009 -- at a much higher level - as compared to 2000 - than was experienced in San Francisco.

The southern-most metro area on this chart did not soar as high as Los Angeles, but it did not fall as low as San Francisco.

The San Diego high was at 250.34 in November, 2005.

The San Diego low was at 144.43 in April, 2009.

Over-all home prices in all five West Coast cities have gone high and they've gone low -- but they are all currently trending upward.

The American homeowner has been water-boarded quite enough already.

Where have home prices been over the years in Portland, OR?

What does the Case-Shiller Index show us about the long-term trend in prices for homes for sale in Oregon's largest metro area?

How do the increases in Portland's score -- recently reported for May through August, 2009 on this important indicator of the home value -- compare to the city's history since the creation of the Index in 1987?

Well, here is the chart:







Remember, the data behind the index began being tabulated in 1987, but has all been calibrated so that a value of 100 on the Index is equal to the level of Portland home prices in January, 2000.

On this chart you can see the ordinary, slow-but-steady historical rate of home price increase continued up until about 2004.

Then the rate of increase went crazy as larger numbers of buyers dramatically bid up the price of homes at an unsustainable rate.

Then the Index for Portland started an abrupt slide in the summer of 2007.

Now the values for May and June, 2009, have turned the graph of the prices for homes for sale in the Portland area again upward.

Will that trend line again show prices increasing at a rapid pace? Or will Portland prices in the near future graph a lot like the long haul from 1987 to 2004?

Only time -- and national fiscal and monetary policies -- will tell.

But I'm not betting against the long-term history.