Jim Paulson (Owner/Broker)

When looking to buy or sell a home, it is very important to know the inventory! You can see that in September, we had an average of 6.7 months of inventory but that figure varied drastically by price range.

When the average income in Ada County substantiates about a $250,000 home, it is no surprise to me that it will take 28 months to absorb the inventory of $1 million plus homes!

With our lot prices dropping to less than development costs alone, it is a great time selectively start looking at the affordable price ranges and niches and consider building again. I have learned that I can effectively compete with short sale prices in our area by building a home on a lot that can now be bought for $40K instead of the $100K two years ago; therefore, competing directly with short sales without the fear that in 3 months your offer would get turned down from the bank or that the seller decided to declare bankruptcy and stay in the home for another six months instead!

It was a pleasure listening to Dr. Yun's perspective again today as he tailored his speech to the Idaho market. I have had the privilege of hearing him speak at several NAR meetings in Chicago and in Washington, DC previously.

Some of the key take away points for me today included:

• Of the $800 million in stimulus money handed out , $10 million of it is doing what it was intended and that is the $8K First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit;
• The market is still not quite self sustaining since many buyers are still on the sidelines concerned about even lower pricing;
• Even though pricing is lower than year ago numbers, the trend is reversing and month over month numbers have been improving for 3-4 months;
• Nationally, we are at 5 months of increases in pending sales activity (seasonally adjusted);
• The removal of the excess bubble has already occurred and we are overshooting the correction now;
• Annual increases in appreciation is about 3-4 percent since 1970 so we are now below that curve;
• New construction inventory now stands at below that of the pre-boom days;
• Population growth and housing formation models indicate we should need about 1.3 - 1.7 million new homes a year and we are building way below that now;
• Even in 2001-2002 sub prime loans averaged 12 percent that were 90+ days delinguent;
• Current price increases annualized in parts of California may equate to 15% increases in property values;
• Major issues have shifted from Short Sales to HVCC and appraisal issues;
• Nevada and Arizona are also coming back well;
• Employment lags production numbers in the economy since companies can absorb additional production prior to having to hire. Employers typically wait to make sure the demand is sustainable first.
• The number of renters that can afford to buy modestly priced homes has increased nearly 50% in recent years from 11 million to 16 million.

I will be hosting another EPRO Workshop Monday, October 26, 2009

I was one of the first Realtors in the State of Idaho to write an offer for a buyer using the Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) Program. It is a great program because instead of discounting a homes value driving the neighborhood prices even lower, it allows them to be purchased, fixed up and resold using NSP funds and then allows for carrying back up to a 20% second deed of trust at 0% interest with no payments (on an as need basis) to keep the valuations up without impacting the buyers payments!

The State of Idaho has been awarded $19.6 million from the 2008 Housing & Economic Recovery Act to distribute towards the acquisition and rehabbing of foreclosed or abandoned property in targeted areas throughout Idaho. Funds are to be used for homebuyer activities or rental properties for special needs housing.

Here are some of the relevant program highlights:

Income requirements for beneficiaries/homebuyers-up to 120% of AMI.

Do not have to be 1st time homebuyers.

Homebuyer activity-encouraged to use IHFA products.

Must use IHFA-approved Lender.

No subprime loan activity allowed.

Targeted areas of greatest need in Idaho: - Canyon County; - Ada County; - Kootenai County; - Bonneville County; - Twin Falls County; - Bannock County

Keep in mind this is for the acquisition of foreclosed or abandoned property to stabilize neighborhoods. NSP cannot be used for foreclosure prevention. NSP is considered emergency funding-all funds MUST be committed within 18-months and completely expended by July 30, 2013 when the program ends.

Homebuyers are required to complete the Finally Home! Program for homebuyer education.

I am ready to help home buyers use this program again since it takes another vacant REO off the market and converts it into a home generating tax dollars instead of absorbing them! This program can be mixed and matched with other programs at the same time including the $8k First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit and more!

Since Realtors are Independent Contractors, it is hard for the public to realize just how many Realtors there are in the community since we don't always stand out collectively. Also, we get so busy in our own world that we don't often get out and network as a group except at membership meetings, etc.

My thought it to pattern this off the Travel Industry which rewards it’s travel agents with discounted rooms, airfare and rental cars, cruises, etc. We blend that with a little “welcome wagon" style marketing and we should be up and running for little or no cost.

Realtor Family Day at the Zoo;

Realtor Family Day at the Discovery Center;

Realtor Happy Hour at select restaurants and or bars;

Realtor Ski night at Bogus Basin Ski area;

Realtor Day at the Botanical Gardens;

Realtor Day at the movies;

Realtor Day at the Golf Course

We could even tie this to various charity events (Realtor day at the MDA Telethon or PBS Telethon)

For smaller groups and settings, we can have it be "CRS Day" or GRI Day, EPRO Day, etc., and spend just a few minutes addressing business then turn it over to enjoy!

I would appreciate it if you would provide feedback and if you know any great places that would like to have us do all the marketing and promotion so that we can bring our base of 3,700 Realtors and their families to a local business, please contact me!