Jonathan Kauffmann

It's been about a month since we officially launched our interactive market reports. So far, the feedback has been great. Here's a recap of our philosophy and approach to these reports...

There are some services out there that pull real-timemarket data, turn it into graphs, and allow subscribers to post it. These actually work pretty well in bigger markets with a high volume of transactions. However, in the Charlottesville area where we do about 3000 (give or take a few) transactions per year, the formulas for those vendors don’t really work as well.

Along those lines, we get a lot of requests for up-to-date market statistics. How many sales have there been month-to-date? What’s the median price? We spend a lot of time checking the stats and staying on top of the Charlottesville area real estate market so that our buyers and sellers are informed…but we wanted to be able to provide you with a monthly market snapshot of some of the most requested market info.

Here’s what we came up with. We think it’s pretty sweet and we hope you think so to...

Now for a brief overview:

We broke Central Virginia down into the 5 major Counties (Albemarle, Nelson, Greene, Fluvanna, and Louisa) plus the City of Charlottesville. For this Beta version, we’re just analyzing single family homes (so condominiums and townhomes are not included in these reports). In addition, the data is pulled from our data feed about the 2nd week of each month – this way we can ensure that the data from the previous month is as up-to-date as possible.

On the Nest Charlottesville homepage, you can select a City/County to get a quick snapshot for the current month. The snapshot will give you the market stats, but will also show you the year-over-year change from last year…enabling you to deduct the current market trends.

Want more? We’ve got it. Go ahead and click on the View Full Market Report link...

Once again, at the top, you can toggle between Counties and get a description of each area. Below, there are three charts with descriptions on the sidebar for each:

1. Days On Market

2. Total Sales

3. Median Home Price

For each of these charts, you can toggle between Counties and choose to select a one-year, three-year, or five-year chart. No matter the chart, we’ve also included a dotted line to show you the average during that period. Why? Perspective. It will enable you to see not only how we are trending, but also what’s been normal (if there is a normal) during that time period.

So let’s take a stab at some analysis. Here’s a chart for Total Sales in Albemarle County over the last five years:

First of all, scroll over the small circles – it will show you the exact data points of the chart.

Second, take a look at the peaks of each year – you can see how our market is cyclical…highs in the summer and lows in the fall and winter. You’ll also notice that the lows over the last several years have been considerably lower than in 2006, 2007, and 2008. The peaks, on the other hand, have been lower, but less erratic.

Lastly, you’ll see a clear downward trend in total sales over the last five years (the red line). Obviously, we wish the market were a bit better.

Check out our December 2010 Charlottesville Real Estate Market Snapshot.

Overall, sales dropped again (down 32%) in November 2010 from November 2009. This marks the fifth straight month of year-over-year sales declines. Surprisingly enough, although sales were down 32%, the volume of deals was down much less (about 15%). Several large purchases pushed the average sales price up significantly from last year (similar to what happened last month). In a similar trend, the median sales increased to $261,000 – up by almost $7,000 from last month and by $1,000 from last November. Total inventory of homes in the Charlottesville MSA dropped by about 5% from October, something that is not uncommon for this time of year.

The DOM of sold homes stayed pretty steady at 109 Days. Over the last two years, the Days of Market in Charlottesville has stayed very steady – proving that if a home is priced well, it usually sells.

Finally, Months of Inventory jumped higher from last November to 17.49 months. However, that is a slight decrease from last month’s 18.89 months.

Stay tuned to The Nest Report online for more analysis. We will also be releasing our 4th Quarter 2010 Market Report the first week of January. In our Quarterly Reports, we take a deeper look into sub-segments of the Central Virginia real estate market.

With the fairly significant drop in home sales throughout Charlottesville and Albemarle County in July, some sellers are beginning to become wary of their ability to sell their home in 2010. Pockets of Charlottesville continue to chug along, though. Real estate in the Albemarle High School District (which includes Barracks Road, Rio, 29 North, and Earlysville) saw a slight drop in July home sales, but held fairly steady overall.

August 2008 – July 2009

Home Sales: 227

Median Sold Price: $335,000

Months of Inventory: 12.52

August 2009 – July 2010

Home Sales: 295 (up 29.9%)

Median Sold Price: $340,500 (up 1.6%)

Months of Inventory: 9.60 (down 23.3%)

The last 12 months has proven to be a positive time for home sales throughout Barracks, Rio, 29, and Earlysville. As we have discovered, just about every segment of the Charlottesville real estate market has seen a big jump in sales during that same period. The positive trends seemed to have stop in July, where sales have been down significantly from the previous July…sometimes over 60% off.

Sales in the Albemarle HS district were off, but not as much as some other segments of the Charlottesville and Albemarle real estate market. Overall, home sales in July were off 21% from the previous July (30 vs. 38). However, the percentage of list-to-sale in July 2010 was up significantly from July 2009 (95.18% vs. 85.52%). That’s a fairly dangerous number to pin positive hopes on though. As we’ve talked about before, the list-to-sale ratio can be gamed a bit and isn’t always completely reliable.

The increase in jobs from NGIC hirings may be a factor helping to prop up this segment of the market. While the total number of NGIC jobs will not keep the Charlottesville real estate market alive by itself, it certainly won’t hurt. Those jobs have been a nice shot in the arm to the market over the last year…and the additional jobs over the next year will assist in our local real estate recovery.

Earlysville Homes For Sale

29 North Homes For Sale

Albemarle Real Estate

Charlottesville Neighborhoods

If you’re a loyal reader of the Nest Report, this post may sound a little familiar to you. To give a little background, we’ve been scouring through Charlottesville real estate market data from the first 7 months of 2010…and comparing sales statistics to years past.

This time, we’re taking a look at detached home sales in Western Albemarle. As with our other recent data, year-over-year Western Albemarle home sales are up significantly. Here’s the breadkdown:

August 2008 – July 2009

Home Sales: 190

Median Sold Price: $477,500

Months of Inventory: 14.96

August 2009 – July 2010

Home Sales: 239 (up 25.8%)

Median Sold Price: $477,500 (down 16.2%)

Months of Inventory: 10.89 (down 27.2%)

The combination of the tax credit and lower prices helped spurr home sales throughout Charlottesvilleand Albemarle during the first half of 2010. However, as we’ve noted before in our reports, July 2010 sales dropped significantly in Western Albemarle (from 32 in 2009 to just 17 this past July).

So, it seems like no matter where we look, the story stays the same. On the bright side, sales are up significantly over the most recent 12 month period. But sales in July are down significantly year-over-year. We’ll see how August and September play out. We expect sales to be off from last year. But we’ll have to wait and see the final numbers.

(Note: Western Albemarle is made up of Crozet and Ivy)

To see current listing inventory:

Crozet homes for sale

Ivy homes for sale

As we all know, the National Ground Intelligence Center is bringing a lot of jobs to Charlottesville and Albemarle County – some are estimating 1000…and maybe even more. With those jobs is increased promise that the influx of jobs will help boost the Charlottesville real estate market. Is that a crazy thought? I don't think so.

Real estate pricing can be traced back to supply and demand. In 2004, the supply of Charlottesville homes was low and demand was high…so prices skyrocketed. We’re in a situation now where the tables are reversed: inventory levels for Charlottesville and Albemarle homes are extremely high and demand is, well, so-so.

For more analysis, check out Nest Realty's Charlottesville Real Estate blog.