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Justin Nickelsen, CMI

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What Will be the Demographic of the Post-Tax-Credit Era Home Buyer?

11-08-09
Justin Nickelsen, CMI

What Will be the Demographic of the Post-Tax-Credit Era Home Buyer?

Thinking About the Future...

While Realtors, Mortgage Brokers, Home Inspectors and Appraisers may have different views on the politics of Government (i.e., tax-payer) tax credits (i.e., subsidies) for home purchases, most of us can agree on one thing: a lot of us have benefited and will continue to benefit from tax credits for home purchases. In the next 5.5 months, until the end of April, many offers will be made and accepted, many homes will be inspected, and many of us will pad our pockets—many will spend as the money comes in...

Then what?

For years I have seen how short sidedness on the part of real estate professionals (of all types) can lead to their own foreclosure and bankruptcy. Many of the most successful Realtors and Mortgage Brokers that we worked with in 2003-2006 no longer own a house, and couldn’t qualify for one if they wanted it. I know: I have inspected their former homes for new buyers. Most of us struggle when we are handed a wad of cash—we want to spend it immediately, and we don’t think about tomorrow.

But we need to.

In that frame of mind, then… thinking about tomorrow… what will be the demographic of a Home Buyer in July 2010? September 2010? What will be the Post-Tax-Credit Demographic of a Home Buyer? Who will be our client? What do they look like? Who is that person? Have you asked yourself these questions?

Let’s think about this for a minute…

The new tax-credit for first time buyers will be $8,000, but the amount that the individuals or couples can make has increased. The new tax-credit is also now extended to people who have lived in their present home for 5 years. They will get $6,500.

If that is the case, that pretty much covers the vast majority of home buyers. And if that is true, who is going to wait until after April 30, 2010. And if our answer is “few”, then you need to feel the pressure of the question again: what is the demographic of the home buyer in the post-tax-credit era?

If you fail to appreciate the importance of this question and you simply focus on the moment without preparing for “tomorrow”, you may wake up one day and be looking for a second job…

Your thoughts?

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Extending the Tax-Credit, Are We Avoiding the Inevitable, Are We Benefiting from the Mortgage Crisis?

10-11-09
Justin Nickelsen, CMI

Will They Extend the Tax Credit?

Are We Trying to Push Off "The Inevitable"?

Are We Still Benefiting from the Sub-Prime Crisis?

The Times of Trenton just released and Op-Ed piece on the possibility of extending the tax credit. Written by Staff Writer and Executive Vice President of the New Jersey Association of Realtors, JARROD C. GRASSO, this piece makes another "expected" case for the extension of the tax credit.

What will be interesting is if we will see any realtors, brokers, mortgage brokers, inspectors, appraisers or anyone who stands to benefit in the short term from a tax credit step to the plate and offer an intriguing reason why an extension wouldn't be in the best interest of the economy. Don't get me wrong: I have benefited and continuing to benefit from the tax credit, but I have read some things (not written by anyone who stands to benefit from the immediate impact of home sales) suggest that we are simply pushing off the inevitable decline.

I don't know.

I do know this: those of us (Realtors, inspectors, etc.) who are presently benefiting in this market are still simply benefiting from the market that cased the "crash" in the first place. Yes: we are still benefiting from the sub-prime mortgage mess and nobody talks about this.

Think about it.

The Right Side of the Pendulum: This "right side" was the time when "anybody could get a loan". While I see the sorry and personal aftermath of this issue everyday, let's get one thing straight: many of us made a lot of money from people purchasing homes they really shouldn't have purchased.

The Left Side of the Pendulum: We are simply now on the other side of the pendulum, but we are still benefiting. People lost those homes, the markets were flooded, and incentives were set in place for home sales. Some are natural (over supply drops the prices of homes, which creates demand), and others are unnatural (5-6% interest rates and $8,000 tax credits). Why? Because of the sub-prime mortgage crisis.

However you slice it, then, we are still benefiting from the same crisis. Yet, nobody talks about this.

This leads then to an interesting observation and question:

Observation: October, November and December (as far as I am concerned, basing it off of how many inspections we were doing in our area) was my "synthesis"-the pendulum passed from right to left. It was really... really... slow. Sure. Are we busier than others: absolutely. But slow for "us". We knew something was not going right. However, January came... then March... then came 60-80 hour work weeks for the last 6 months of my life.

Question: Was October-December 2008 simply a pre-cursor? While the rest of the economy has struggled in this "recession", we have benefited. But are we next? Will all of us-Realtors, appraisers, inspectors, mortgage brokers, etc.-eventually see and feel the recession, but just later that the other segments of the economy?

Does extending the Tax-Credit or creating another similar Tax-Credit simply push off the inevitable decline in our industries?

Certainly, I hope not. I have a business to run, I have children to feed, and I have a wife who has expensive tastes, etc.

But... I wonder.

What say you?

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Justin Nickelsen, CMI

Board Certified Master Inspector

Nickelsen Home Inspections, LLC

"A Conduit for Educated Real Estate Transactions"

Vancouver, WA / Portland, OR

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LOCAL FAMILY - FIRE - NEEDS HELP!!!

02-11-09
Justin Nickelsen, CMI

LOCAL FAMILY NEEDS HELP - LOST EVERYTHING IN FIRE

1,2,3 - GO!

Below is information from a Realtor I know, Angie Slocum, Keller Williams Agent in Vancouver, concerning a family who had a fire and lost EVERYTHING. She has set up a donation at the Downtown Vancouver Keller Williams. They are accepting monetary and material donations. 13 year old daughter, and two parents.

If everyone on my contact lists contributed $5-$50 that would equal $1750 to $17,500 - Let's Do it!! and Pass it on!!

If you would like to donate, but can not drop off items, I will be happy to pick them up and bring them to the office for you. Just let me know.

Donations:

- Cash and Materials (they lost everything)

- Furniture, Clothing, Etc.

- Presently in a Hotel, but no place to go after that

My understanding is that they have been given a storage facility for furniture, etc., but need both cash and material goods.

Angi's information is below, as well as an email that I just got from her:

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A big "Thank You" to EVERYONE that has offered to help out this family during their difficult time. We have set up a donation drop off location for them if you'd like to help. It is at my Downtown Vancouver Keller Williams office at 915 Broadway St #100, Vancouver, WA 98660. Please ask for Mike Mace regarding details.

The Mom, Dad & 13 year old daughter lost everything in the fire. Anything from clothes, furniture, household misc., whatever you think they may need is greatly appreciated! They are so in awe with the overwhelming response from everyone willing to help! Thank you so much for your generosity! You guys are the BEST!

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Angi Slocum, Keller Williams Realty

915 Broadway, Ste. 100

Vancouver, WA 98660

Phone: 360.904.7976

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Clark County Washington's "Utility Problem"--Utilities Off, Presenting Problems With Inspection Process

02-06-09
Justin Nickelsen, CMI

Boy... things have changed, haven't they! While realtors, appraisers, mortgage brokers and home inspectors may feel the affect of this change differently, there is still the common denominator: we all work in real estate, and this is a different market than many of us were once used to. This leaves us all with a couple options: we can reject the change and refuse to deal with it, or we can meet the change and the challenges which come with it head on. Nickelsen Home Inspections, LLC is choosing the latter...

Of the many changes that we have experienced on our side of the real estate industry, there is one that is affecting us daily which appears to be overlooked by most people: over 90% of all vacant homes we are getting calls to inspect have one or more of the utilities off! This creates an enormous challenge because if we come to the home and the gas, water or electricity (or all of them!) are off, we can't complete a normal inspection and end up having to come back to the home again (sometimes more than once!). This, in turn, unduly drags out the transaction: people are having to get extensions on their inspection period and many are getting frustrated-who can blame them!?

To help expedite the process, Nickelsen Home Inspections, LLC have taken the time to produce this document which will help you and your clients when it comes time to schedule a home inspection-or, perhaps, before you even get to that point.

Step 1-Assume They are Off: Assume that all of the utilities are off if the house is vacant. It helps ease the "frustration factor" if you simply assume that the utilities are off...

Step 2-Check for Yourself: Check to make sure that all are on. We have had many bad experiences when the buyer's agent calls the listing agent and asks if they are on, only to find out when we get to the house that the utilities are actually off. You are going to need to call each of the applicable utility companies and check for yourself. While this may seem cumbersome, trust me: it will save you and your clients a lot of head ache later on. Also note, this isn't necessarily a sure sign: you may need to actually go to the house and make sure that gas, water and electricity are on to the house.

Step 3-Get the Ball Rolling: Start the process of getting all of the utilities on. Each situation appears to be different. Many of the homes are bank owned and we have seen listing agents, buyer's agents and buyers themselves have to temporarily put the utility in their name and pay to get it on. Note: because of the unusual demand at this time, NW Natural Gas is usually 3-4 days out! You need to find out if the utility is off and get the ball rolling as soon as possible!

Step 4-Schedule Inspection After Utilities are On: Once the utilities are on, please call us to schedule the inspection. There is going to be the temptation to call and schedule the home inspection before the utilities are all on. Please resist. There is no guarantee that the utility will actually be turned on because they may have a problem when they get to the house and not turn it on, or they may not be able to get to the house at the hour or even the day that you were told. We even run into situations where we are told that the utilities will be on for the inspection, only to find out the night before that the seller didn't pay the bill and the utility company (usually water) won't turn on the utility until the bill is paid. We are a multi-inspector firm... you are not going to have a problem getting the inspection done in time: please schedule the inspection only after you have confirmation that the utilities are on.

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· NW Natural (Gas): 1-800-422-4012

· Clark Public Utilities (Electricity): 360-992-3000

· City of Vancouver (Water): 360-487-7999

· City of Camas (Water): 360-834-2462

· City of Washougal (Water): 360.835.8501

· City of LaCenter (Water): Clark Public Utilities

· City of Ridgefield (Water): 360.887.3557

· City of Woodland (Water): 360-225-8281

· City of Battleground (Water): 360.342.5002 or 5022

· Note: for rural areas and areas outside city limits, you may need to contact Clark Public Utilities

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Justin Nickelsen, Nickelsen Home Inspections, LLC

Vancouver, WA Home Inspector - 360.907.9648

4 Comments
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Washington State Home Inspection Legislation Website

02-06-09
Justin Nickelsen, CMI

If you would like to keep track of the home inspection legislation in Washington State, you may find the following links helpful:

- Department of Licensing Inspector Page: http://www.dol.wa.gov/business/homeinspectors/index.html

- Washington State Legislature Inspection Bill Page: http://apps.leg.wa.gov/billinfo/summary.aspx?bill=6606&year=2007

- Kaplan Education Overview of Washington State Law: http://www.home-inspect.com/legislation.asp#WA

- AHIT Education Overview of Washington State Law: http://www.ahit.com/training/stateregs/washington_regs.cfm

- Deparment of Agriculture, "What Are Home Inspectors Allowed to Say On Home Inspection Reports Regarding Wood Destroying Insects", http://agr.wa.gov/pestfert/docs/WhatHomeInspectorsCanSayAboutWDI.pdf

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Justin Nickelsen, Nickelsen Home Inspections, LLC

Vancouver, WA - 360.907.9648

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