Jodi Summers

by Jodi Summers

Everyone uses different statistics, which yield conflicting options…which is why the February Santa Monica Real Estate snapshot smacks of inconsistency….about as precise as consulting the Magic 8 Ball.

For example, the California Association of Realtors (CAR) December 2011 report for existing home sales and prices in California notes that statewide, sales of existing single-family homes rose by 0.1% from Dec. 2010. CAR calculates that 520,940 units were sold according to the seasonally adjusted, annualized rate.

In Santa Monica, comparing Jan-10 vs. Jan-12, with Clarus Market Metrics, the number of residential properties for sale properties is down 23% < from 344 to 264, while the number of sold properties tumbled 36% from 33 to 21.

But! Here’s the sack! The residential properties that did sell in our celebrated City by the Sea sold at a median price that was 43% higher than Jan-10 > from $838,000 $1,200,000 > that’s an impressive rise of $362,000. Even with a 36% drop in properties sold, that’s an impressive increase, wouldn’t you say?

Our 36% increase is particularly noteworthy since statewide the median price declined 6.2% on a year-over basis to $285,920, according to CAR…Fortunately, it’s looking like the rest of the state is off the bottom; for the second month in a row, prices are on the rise. But, they note there is still downward pressure on prices for more expensive homes.

In SoCal, DataQuick reports that the median home price in the six-county region continued a string of year-over-year declines, falling by 6.9% to $270,000. Compared with November, the median price was down by 1.8%. The regional median price has now fallen on a year-over basis for ten consecutive months.

If these stats ring true, then the Silicon Valley renaissance must be in full swing. Seriously, stuff in the rest of the state is selling better than Southern California? Ha! Rumour has it that 20% of the U.S. population lives in California south of Santa Barbara County.

CAR notes that preliminary figures indicate that for 2011 home sales statewide increased by 1.1% to 497,860 > compared to 492,290 homes sold in 2010. The statewide median price declined by 6.3% to $285,950.

CAR offers a more optimistic out looks, so we’ll share with you their Sales and price activity by county over the year to December:

• Los Angeles County: unit sales declined by 4.6% over the year to December, and the median price fell by 6.5% to $306,950.

• Orange County: sales fell by 5.6%, while the median price dropped by 3.0% to $484,630.

• Riverside County: sales of existing homes dropped by 4.3% and the median price dipped by 0.8% to $203,650.

• San Bernardino County: sales increased by 4.0%, while the median price fell by 4.7% to $128,450.

• San Diego County: unit sales increased by 5.6%, but the median price was down by 4.2% to $359,930.

• Ventura County: existing home sales rose by 5.3%, while the median price plunged by 11.4% to $391,060.

Other items of interest:

Inventories are quite lean. The inventory of unsold single-family detached homes in California was 4.2 months in Dec-11, down from 5.0 months in Dec-10. Los Angeles County found itself with a 4.7 month supply of single-family homes. compared with 5.3 months a year ago.

In Santa Monica, the number of residential properties for sale is down 23% from Jan-10.

So we have 4.5 months of inventory > down -45.2% from Jan-10.

In the meantime, Jan-12 finds 27% FEWER HOMES coming on the market each month.

While the number of under contract properties is up 20%.

Do you get the sense we’re moving toward a seller’s market? Or do you think it’s too inconsistent to say? Perhaps we should consult the Magic 8 Ball.

We’re here to help you with your property needs. Please contact Jodi Summers and the SoCal Investment Real Estate Group @ Sotheby’s International Realty – jodi@jodisummers.com or 310.392.1211, and let us move forward together.

**

http://www.dqnews.com/

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http://www.esotericonline.net/profiles/blogs/ask-the-magic-8-ball

By Jodi Summers

Everybody loves Santa Monica. Of latest accolades, Forbes has selected Santa Monica as one of America's Best Downtowns.

Forbes chose the country’s most alluring downtowns with the help of travel experts from Frommer’s and Livability, a travel and analysis site that focuses on mid-sized or smaller towns. Criteria included shops, restaurants, proximity of parks and cultural options. Winning cities included Chicago, IL; Portland, OR; Savannah, GA; Greenville, SC; Winston-Salem, NC; San Antonio, TX, Kansas City, MO; and Indianapolis, among other.

“We embraced the subjectivity that is inherent in a list like this, while still striving for benchmarks and criteria that we think make a great downtown,” notes John Hood of Livability.

Among those criteria they considered: entertainment options, navigability, attractive architecture and a thriving downtown.

Santa Monica was chosen because we offer both a lively downtown and a sensational location. Here we sit on one of the most enviable stretches of the California coastline, with a luxurious new mall and revitalized downtown laden with high-end shops and inventive restaurants. Forbes also appreciated our mix single-family homes and apartments, as it ensures that a lively mix of people can live and work near the downtown area.

“All of Santa Monica is pretty walkable and compact,” confirms Jason Clampet, senior online editor for Frommers.com. "You've got a great six blocks or so of shopping, with a mix of local stores, boutiques and chains “Unlike most of the rest of the region, you can really walk around and get by without a car, and it has some of the best views in the Los Angeles area of the ocean.”

Over the past several years, Santa Monica and her various entities earned more than 50 awards and honors.

“We recognize that such esteemed accolades don’t come easily,” said Mayor Richard Bloom. “To be distinguished as ‘the best’ by so many discerning publications and organizations is a true testament to the standard of excellence our city and our tourism community maintains.”

**

http://www.smdp.com/Articles-local-news-c-2012-01-18-73318.113116-Downtown-among-nations-most-alluring-.html

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngiuffo/2011/10/14/americas-best-downtowns/

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by Jodi Summers

Believe it or not, California may finally have turned the corner to a recovery. The job market is slated for slow but steady growth over the next two years, according to the latest UCLA Anderson Forecast…but, expect our sluggish housing market to continue, with no dramatic growth until 2013. "The end of a recession does not mean 'recovered from a recession,'" observes UCLA senior economist Jerry Nickelsburg. "It only means the contraction has ended. The pain remains real and persistent until solid and sustained gains occur." We’re seeing a sluggish housing market locally in Santa Monica. Comparing Dec-10 vs. Dec-11, the median sold price is down 1% from $923,000 to $915,000…a drop of $8,000, or -1%. As usual, Santa Monica is above average in our recovery. Feel good about this. In Los Angeles, the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index recorded a monthly decline of 1.5% in home prices in October after sliding 0.8% in September. Year over year, L.A. prices are down 4.9%, as measured by the index. San Diego was down 4.5% from October 2010. In San Francisco prices have fallen 4.7% from a year earlier. The median home price in California in November was $244,000, down 4.3% from a year earlier. Nationally, there have been price drops in 19 of 20 cities since September. Overall, the price index slipped 1.2% month over month and fell 3.4% compared with October 2010. But, the experts are hopeful. "Have we turned the corner in the Golden State? Perhaps we have," predicts Nickelsburg. "The last two months have yielded both job growth in excess of the U.S. rate and job growth which is widespread throughout the state." Echoing the forecast’s 4^th quarter growth, home sales n Santa Monica also picked up in November and December after an October lull. Comparing Dec-10 vs. Dec-11, the number of sold properties is down 10% from 50 to 45. The UCLA report notes that since July, job growth throughout each major region of California has outpaced the national average. San Diego County, Orange County and Ventura grew at an average rate of 2%, compared to the U.S. average of 1%. "In coastal California export and technology growth has been the key to recovery," Nickelsburg notes. "A resurgence of investment and exports in 2012 will continue to drive the coastal economies." We may be recovering, but even real estate on the coast is weak. Looking at Dec-10 vs. Dec-11, the number of under contract properties in Santa Monica is down 33%...expect it to remain in the low. The current forecast is for the recent surge in employment to abate while slow growth persists on average through 2012. The rest of the United States, California’s international trading partners and increased consumer purchases will combine to generate faster growth in 2013. We’re here to help you with your commercial and investment property needs. Please contact Jodi Summers and the SoCal Investment Real Estate Group @ Sotheby’s International Realty – jodi@jodisummers.com or 310.392.1211, and let us move forward together. ** http://uclaforecast.com http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-harney-20120101,0,6342117.story http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-housing-prices-20111228,0,541656.story http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/x38937.xml https://www.terradatum.com/agentmetricsonline/agentmetrics_online.td http://www.santamonicapropertyblog.com/?p=4075 http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/dec/07/ucla-state-job-market-stay-upward-track/ http://jonkeegan.com/images/sm_beach_postcard.jpg

By Jodi Summers

Residential Real Estate in Santa Monica is like a game of Chutes and Ladders … some ups, some downs. Our game on the West Side tends to be somewhat more entertaining and contrary than most of the rest of the real estate market. For example, in California in October, sales volume is up, prices are down. Locally, volume is down prices are up.

More details. Statewide, October sales of existing single-family homes climbed up by +8.5% compared with a year ago, according to the California Association of Realtors (CAR).

In Santa Monica, November sales of residential real estate slide down 23% vs. the year prior, according to Clarus Market Metrics..

Throughout California, the median price continued its decline, falling by -8.9% over the year to $278,060. Nov-10 vs. Nov-11 in Santa Monica, the median sold price is up 3% > from $827,000 to $853,000 > a gain of $26,000. Congratulations to all who have profited.

Here’s what happened around the rest of Southern California:

* Los Angeles County: unit sales edged up by +1.0% over the year to October, but the median price fell by -7.8% to $307,970.

* Ventura County: existing home sales jumped by +14.9%, while the median price declined by -6.5% to $399,160.

* Orange County: sales fell by -3.7%, while the median price dropped by -6.7% to $484,390.

* San Diego County: unit sales edged up by +1.7%, but the median price was down by -7.1% to $357,380.

* Riverside County: sales of existing homes dipped by -0.7% and the median price declined by -4.6% to $195,760.

* San Bernardino County: sales increased by +4.3%, while the median price fell by -5.8% to $132,210.

Statewide, the price decline from September to October was 3.3%. CAR notes that an autumn decline is typical, but the recent noteworthy slip is due, in part, to the lower Fannie, Freddie and FHA conforming loan limits that launched October 1st. The lower loan limits make it more difficult to obtain financing for higher priced homes > thus the bungee fall in sales volume in Santa Monica (from 48 units during 9-11 to 30 units in 10-11).

Fannie + Freddie shift have resulted in a change in the mix of sales price points to the lower end of the price spectrum, thereby pushing down the median price. Pocket economics.

Other curious coastal real estate contrasts:

The inventory of unsold single-family detached homes in California was 5.3 months in September, down from 6.2 months in October 2010. Los Angeles County found itself with a 5.7 month supply of single-family homes in October (compared with 6.4 months a year ago). In Santa Monica, we’ve dropped from 7.3 months of inventory in 11-10 to 4.7 months in 11-11, an impressive slide of 36%.

Santa Monica is a microcosm of the West Side. Buyers are complaining that they do not have enough property options because the number of properties for sale is down 32%.

There’s not enough real estate for sale. Let the idea warm you like the morning sun. If you have been thinking of selling residential real estate, now is a great time because of the lack of options. Seller / buyer market parity @ 3.7 months of inventory. Santa Monica currently sits @ 4.7 month stockpile of residential real estate. We are closing in on a level and balanced real estate market. Yeah!

We’re here to help you with your property needs. Please contact Jodi Summers and the SoCal Investment Real Estate Group @ Sotheby’s International Realty – jodi@jodisummers.com or 310.392.1211, and let us move forward together.

**

https://www.terradatum.com/agentmetricsonline/report_chart_view.td

http://www.car.org/newsstand/newsreleases/2011newsreleases/octsalesprice/

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By Jodi Summers

Fear and doubt…that’s what it was…but all areas of U.S. investment felt it in the 3^rd quarter. The recent debt crisis fear that rippled through the European Economic Community found its way to our side of the pond > our stock market trembled, and so did Los Angeles County Multiunit real estate activity. Trembled mind you, this will be just another quarter in the long term scheme of things.

All-in-all, prices on Los Angeles multi-tenant properties remained strong, but volume dropped…even when compared to the previous quarter.

“We’ll just keep shopping,” note undeterred buyers.

There is good news for all in the Los Angeles Apartment Real Estate Market:

Median Sold Price by Month > comparing Sep-09 vs. Sep-11: The median sold price is up 6%.

Under Contract Properties by Month > Sep-09 vs. Sep-11: The number of under contract properties is up 4%.

Good news for owners / not so good for renters:

The Core U.S. Consumer Price Index notes that rent jumped by +0.2%, and the index for owner’s equivalent rent increased by +0.1%. This is an important category because it constitutes about 24.9% of consumer budgets – greater than the sum of gasoline (4.9%) and food (14.8%).

Good news for sellers of apartment buildings in Los Angeles:

New Properties by Month > contrasting Sep-09 vs. Sep-11: The number of new properties on the market is down 15%.

For Sale Properties by Month > Sep-09 vs. Sep-11: The number of for sale properties is down 16%.

Months’ Supply of Inventory > Sep-09 vs. Sep-11: The average months’ supply of inventory is down -21.1%

Consistent news for multiunit buyers: The Market is holding:

Median For Sale vs. Median Sold > Sep-09 vs. Sep-11: The median price of for sale properties is down 5% and the median price of sold properties is up 6%.

Indicators of a strengthening market:

Multi-family construction is improving according to according to IHS Global Insight indicators. Multi-family starts were up +51% nationally, propelled forward by a +141% jump in the South and a +52% increase in the West (which includes California).

Conversely, housing permits (a leading indicator) fell -5.0% to a 594,000-unit annual rate—the lowest reading in five months. Permits were down in three of four regions, and remain depressed and trendless nationally and in all four regions.

More good news if you’re thinking of buying:

According to the recent Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2012 Forecast, released by PriceWaterhouse Cooper and the Urban Land Institute, commercial experts still remain sold on walkable, 24-hour cities > though yields will stay small and anywhere else remains high risk. The experts agree that almost any class of apartment property is a good investment, as are technology sectors.

“Lock in your fixed-rate debt and focus on the blue-chip gateway markets,” concludes the Forecast. “The prices may be outrageous, but as some of our respondents said, do you have confidence anywhere else?”

We’re here to help you with your real estate needs. Please contact Jodi Summers and the SoCal Investment Real Estate Group @ Sotheby’s International Realty – jodi@jodisummers.com or 310.392.1211, and let us move forward together.

**

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