John Duffner

It is too early to say that the trend in real estate is up. Since March, 2009 it has been basically sideways. The October uptick may suggest that despite the local and national economic woes real estate may do its own thing.

The September, 2009 down tick may have been a hic-cup in the overall trend but it does suggest that one be cautious before reading anything into the market. It may have been a warning.

Even with the warning one would expect that with high unemployment; lack of new job creation; new taxes on the horizon both Federal and State; the increase in State tax as a loan for the next several months; lack of consumer confidence...all of these singularly and collectively will temper the real estate uptrend.

BUT as of now it looks like the market wants to get LEGS!

For complete article and tables go to www.venturacountyretalk.com

Today when this term is used it is hoped that something will be created out of nothing. This ancient Aramaic roots (Avrah KaDabra) means "I create as I speak".

Well over the last week the real estate market in Ventura County did an "Abracadabra" and the down trend that had been in place for two months reversed itself and start upward with some conviction I might add.

As can be noted in the table below the market had been laboring over the last two months showing significant downside build up.

For complete article go to: www.venturacountyretalk.com

Listings continue to decrease (1932 last week; 1859 this week); sales however climbed and it is probably due to the paper work being delayed in recording sales therefore the prices which had been going down now appears to have stabilized over the last week.

The chart below summarizes the last weeks statistical numbers. However events that truly move the market are headed in the opposite direction.

The County's high unemployment of 11+% certainly is a driving force impacting the real estate market. Lack of new jobs creation is another impact source. Consumer confidence is at a low point.

The media is attempting to make things look good but individual common sense tells the general population something else.

Attempts to detract from the economy are going full bore but when push comes to shove it's the economy that most people dwell on. It's their personal economy that takes priority.

Expected is the hammer to fall.....tax increases. This has to come about and most are dreading the outcome. To be sure most middle and upper level pay scales are going to be hit hard. This in and of itself will not impact the real estate market but it most certainly will take longer for the market to start its upward acceleration.

For complete article go to: www.venturacountyretalk.com

Again job creation (high paying), a decrease in unemployment are the necessary ingredients to propel the market upward.

Political double talk aside job creation and reduction of unemployment in California is taking on a monster stance. Historically tax decreases helped to right the ship faster. Today that does not appear to be tack being undertaken ..... all one hears or sees is that taxes have to increase across the board. This option simply reduces the odds of getting the economy headed upward.

As Donald Trump has stated on a number of occasions, we have to hand out pink slips to the politicians now in office. "YOUR FIRED" will set the tone and change the mindset of the people in Sacramento.

For complete article go to: www.venturacountyretalk.com

After awhile statistical information being just numbers becomes mesmerizing and some common sense has to come into play.

The numbers do what numbers are supposed to do....lay out what is happening and it is up to the individual to wade through and make sense of what that happening is.

This week for some reason the numbers are saying one thing but my gut instincts are telling me something else.

The real estate market has been going up and that is GOOD news. And as expected it is going up in a saw tooth configuration. BUT it appears that we may be looking at (what the stock market would call) a bears trap. Prices have been going up but over the last several months, especially the month of July, the price increases witnessed since the beginning of the year appear to be labored.

It may well be a great to do about nothing but one should be on guard for further decreases in real estate prices. I cannot believe I said that.....after all since November, 2008 I have been stating that the market is going up. But some doubt is setting in.......again just a feeling.

Contributors to this feeling is the unemployment rate; the lack of new job development; consumer confidence is waning; federal/state/locat taxes and fees have to go up.

• Yes the beige report has come out stating that the market and the economy has hit bottom.
• Yes there have been reports of new building going on throughout the United States.
• Yes it has been reported that home prices are going up (and they are).

BUT something doe not feel right so investors watch what you buy and where you buy. Home buyers watch what you buy and where you buy. Sellers hold fast and if you have to sell, sell because the price you get may be the best for several months. Sellers if you do not have to sell now, wait. The market will come to you.

For Ventura County:

Listings are down; sales are flat; year to year sales are up 20% and the County as a whole is a sellers market.

The beaches are the only place that continue as a buyers market and the inventory for Ventura and Oxnard beach areas is about a 10 month supply. As reflected in the table below all other areas are either neutral or seller markets

For complete article go to www.venturacountyretalk.com