(Business 2.0 Magazine) -- True, America is littered with "for sale" signs these days. And many cities haven't bottomed out yet, and may not for some time. But all the fear and loathing about a housing slump obscures the fact that the end of one cycle marks the start of another.
So it is again this time: Believe it or not, there are housing markets that economists predict will yield returns as high as 72 percent over the next five years - if you can stomach the notion of buying now and not letting go. We asked researchers at Moody's Economy.com to crunch the latest forecast data and identify which cities will see the highest appreciation between now and 2011.
Then, after vetting the list against other macroeconomic research, we arrived at a consensus for the 10 strongest markets. For comparison's sake, we also asked the number crunchers for a list of the cities most likely to go into the tank. Of course, we can't guarantee the accuracy of our crystal ball - but we can promise that you'll know what you're getting into if you decide to take the plunge.
1. Panama City, FL
Projected gain in home prices (2006-2011): 72%
A small city needs one of two things to jack up housing demand: more people or wealthier people. Unlike the rest of Florida, Panama City hasn't really attracted either, mainly because it's isolated on Florida's panhandle. The interstate highway system bypasses it, and the runway at the local airport isn't long enough to support anything beyond regional jets. But now Panama City is poised to host big airliners, more visitors - and a lot more buyers. State and local governments and a top regional developer, St. Joe Co., are planning to build a new airport by 2008 at a cost of more than $300 million. Locals expect the new facility to open up the region the way Southwest Florida International Airport in Fort Myers helped drive a housing boom along Florida's southwestern coast in the 1980s.
"Panama City is an economy waiting to break out," says Steven Cochrane, chief regional economist for Moody's Economy.com. Other factors increasing demand: Property prices are still low by Florida standards, and the local market has already absorbed a price correction after peaking last year. Janet Roan, a Century 21 agent in Panama City, notes that two-bedroom beachfront condos are going for as little as $330,000 - down by more than $100,000 from 2005.
Caution: Local politicians, notoriously cozy with builders, have green-lighted several master-plan communities for future development. If supply gets out of hand, prices will stall.
Metro Region Stats
Median home price (2011): $383,000
Population (2011): 187,000
Per capita income (2011): $40,200
2. Vero Beach, FL
Projected gain in home prices (2006-2011): 64%
Balmy weather, low property taxes, and a cost of living 3 percent lower than that of nearby West Palm Beach make this coastal town an affordable alternative, with sandy shores and the best surfing on the East Coast. "Vero Beach is at high risk in the short term but will move up in the long term," Cochrane says. Here's why: A Florida Atlantic University study says Indian River County and its two closest neighbors will need a projected 154,000 new homes during the next 25 years to house the growing population and replace old structures. A Manpower Employment Outlook Survey predicts growth in construction, manufacturing, and retail jobs too. Per capita income growth closely shadowed that of Martin County, Florida's second-wealthiest, and is gaining on that of Palm Beach County, the state's richest.
Caution: Projected job growth in the region will revolve mainly around lower-wage work, which can dampen home values.
Metro Region Stats
Median home price (2011): $386,000
Population (2011): 147,000
Per capita income (2011): $51,200
3. Bridgeport, CT
Projected gain in home prices (2006-2011): 63%
The last place you'd expect to find undervalued real estate is in tony Fairfield County, home to ultraexclusive towns like Greenwich and Darien, where the Masters of the Universe retreat after a tough day on Wall Street. But a mere 20 miles up the coast lies the hardscrabble city of Bridgeport, which has long suffered from sleazy politics and urban decay but is finally cleaning up its act. The average home price is severely depressed - $280,000, compared with $840,000 in the county's other large urban setting, Stamford. But the wealth is starting to spread: As more businesses have left New York for Greenwich and Stamford, more middle-class workers - entry-level professionals, executive assistants, and so on - have come too, and they're keen to take advantage of bargain prices. "Bridgeport has fixed the corruption," says Norman Feinstein, a principal with New Jersey-based Hampshire Funds. "The local government is pro-development, and buildings are being rehabbed."
Caution: The new demand is not organically driven by Bridgeport's economy. If the New York business climate starts to slip, all bets are off.
Metro Region Stats
Median home price (2011): $784,000
Population (2011): 934,000
Per capita income (2011): $87,000
4. Lakeland, FL
Projected gain in home prices (2006-2011): 59%
Aside from the panhandle and Vero Beach, few places in Florida scream out "buy now" like Lakeland. A house goes for a fifth less than the national median of $227,500, and Lakeland is just 30 minutes from Tampa, a juggernaut of 2.7 million people that's projected to add almost 210,000 more residents over the next five years. Lakeland is the greenfield - actually, orange and yellow, because of the surrounding citrus groves - that developers are divvying up to house many of those newcomers. Meritage Homes (Charts), one of the fastest-growing U.S. builders, plans to build more than 1,300 homes in the area by 2008. "All the big national and regional builders have moved into town," says Larry Comegys, Meritage regional president. "Lakeland has become major." It also sits along I-4, where the density of development is beginning to mirror the Dulles corridor in Virginia.
Caution: Prices tend to top out more quickly in areas like Lakeland that are largely populated by semiskilled service workers.
Metro Region Stats
Median home price (2011): $282,000
Population (2011): 599,000
Per capita income (2011): $39,100
5. McAllen, TX
Projected gain in home prices (2006-2011): 57%
A Hispanic baby boom is working its way through the regional economy, and families will soon be trading up their digs. McAllen is already 85 percent Latino, and the average age of those households is two decades younger than that of non-Hispanic ones. Latino families are also larger: 3.8 members, on average, compared with 2.4 for Caucasians. "These border towns have a housing shortage," Cochrane says. "There's pent-up demand. They'll be looking for more space and better space." He predicts that incomes will catch up to the area's economic growth, currently more than double the state average of 2.9 percent. So far, cheap labor has driven a development boom. Manufacturers locate on both sides of the border to take advantage of low wages and the common market for goods created by NAFTA.
Caution: As the economy matures, higher-paying industries like health care and business services will grow. The area could lose its low-wage "nearshoring" edge, slowing down industrial growth and the demand for new homes.
Metro Region Stats
Median home price (2011): $109,000
Population (2011): 785,000
Per capita income (2011): $23,200
6. San Luis Obispo, CA
Projected gain in home prices (2006-2011): 40%
SLO-Town, as the locals call it, is on the development fast track. It's in the middle of the last semirural stretch of central California coastline, and it's also home to the state's rising star of wine production, Paso Robles, where even French vintners are buying property. The median home price in Paso Robles has shot up by more than 100 percent since 2000. And according to local developer Peter Laughlin, commercial land has skyrocketed from $3 to $20 a square foot since 2001. Yet the natural amenities, proximity to Southern California, and relatively low prices support forecasts of a continuing surge. Thousands of retirement-age boomers, it's said, will sell their SoCal homes for cheaper digs in SLO. Anti-development sentiment also helps. "They're not zoning quickly enough for the demand," Laughlin says. "Either they have to allow more homes or prices will go through the roof."
Caution: Prices are already getting ahead of job and income growth.
Metro Region Stats
Median home price (2011): $615,000
Population (2011): 287,000
Per capita income (2011): $42,900
7. Wilmington, NC
Projected gain in home prices (2006-2011): 37%
Nestled between the Cape Fear River and North Carolina's Inner Bank beaches, Wilmington has great golf, mild weather, natural beauty, and a relatively cheap cost of living, all of which make it popular with both permanent residents and second-home vacationers. But it hasn't always been this way. It was an isolated backwater until 1990, when the final 120-mile stretch of I-40 opened. Now the Research Triangle's well-heeled tech workers can be at the beach in three hours. As the only city of any significant size on the North Carolina coast, Wilmington may be just at the beginning of its boom. It has a seaport, an international airport, and a UNC campus. But it has also maintained its "historic" ambience, bringing it another revenue stream: Hollywood has filmed 180 features here during the past two decades.
Caution: Wilmington has seen a high proportion of speculators invade the region in recent years. Barron's estimated last year that 38 percent of its homeowners are nonresident investors who use their properties only occasionally, if at all. One other word of warning: hurricanes.
Metro Region Stats
Median home price (2011): $297,000
Population (2011): 361,000
Per capita income (2011): $38,300
8. Manchester, NH
Projected gain in home prices (2006-2011): 35%
New Hampshire's financial appeal is readily apparent: It has no income or sales tax, and it's within commuting distance of Boston, one of the most expensive housing markets in the country. Manchester, a former textile mill town, is the largest city in northern New England; neighboring Nashua, which twice has won honors as Money magazine's "best place to live" in America, shares a border with Massachusetts, which has been losing population since 2004. "The edges of greater Boston are beyond the state boundary," notes geographer Andrew Schiller, founder of NeighborhoodScout. "People know they can move out of Boston, get more house for their dollar, and have a great quality of life." And now may be a good time to buy, because appreciation rates started dropping in New England several quarters earlier than in the rest of the country. Prices are expected to burst upward again by mid-2007.
Caution: It remains to be seen whether southern New Hampshire can buck the larger demographic trend: people leaving New England in droves to seek milder, sunnier climes.
Metro Region Stats
Median home price (2011): $305,000
Population (2011): 413,000
Per capita income (2011): $54,200
9. Fort Collins, CO
Projected gain in home prices (2006-2011): 28%
Fort Collins appears time and again on the media's "best" lists - best place to live, best place to retire, best place to raise a family, best "dream" town, even the best place to "reinvent your life." "Great schools, low crime, good jobs in a high-tech economy," Money crowed earlier this year when it named Fort Collins its No. 1 small city. And talk about a lifestyle play: The city is an outdoorsman's fantasy come to life, boasting 40 parks within the city limits, more than 60 miles of hiking and biking trails, three city-owned golf courses, and easy access to whitewater rafting, kayaking, fishing, and skiing. The presence of Colorado State University makes it a college town, to boot. Add to all this that Colorado has been a housing price laggard in recent years, with "relatively anemic" price appreciation, according to economist Andrew Leventis at the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. With tech companies fleeing high-priced Silicon Valley, bringing California migrs with them, now looks like a good time to buy.
Caution: Another tech slump could dampen the housing forecast. With large divisions of Agilent Technologies (Charts), Eastman Kodak (Charts), and Hewlett-Packard (Charts) based here, the regional economy leans mighty heavily on tech-industry growth.
Metro Region Stats
Median home price (2011): $251,000
Population (2011): 306,000
Per capita income (2011): $48,400
10. Atlanta GA
Projected gain in home prices (2006-2011): 24%
Sure, the projected price gain is only a third that of top-ranked Panama City. But it's dramatic for a metro region with a population of more than 5 million people. NeighborhoodScout's Schiller notes its strategic importance as the primary "growth pole" for the entire Southeast, and Bruce Katz, head of the urban development program at the Brookings Institution, says Atlanta is "sprawl on steroids." While the city itself is home to only 400,000 people, the greater region includes 110 municipal governments, each determined to beat its neighbors in growth. With the greatest job growth expected near Atlanta's heart, commuters from far-flung suburbs are fighting harder each day to get back inside the I-285 "perimeter" that encircles the city. That has already pumped up prices in the more desirable north Atlanta neighborhoods, including swank Buckhead, forcing less well-heeled newcomers to look outside the perimeter for a price break. Expect to see the greatest appreciation along Atlanta's southern perimeter fringes, particularly in and around Peachtree City.
Caution: Atlanta has never been known for record-breaking housing appreciation. This year's closure of Ford's assembly plant in Hapeville and the scheduled closure of General Motors's Doraville plant in 2008 could also slow things down.
Metro Region Stats
Median home price (2011): $214,000
Population (2011): 5,615,000
Per capita income (2011): $45,400 
Once the province of vacationers and second-home owners from Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia and elsewhere in the Deep South, the strip of the Florida Gulf Coast that stretches from Panama City Beach to Destin and once known as the "Redneck Riviera" is now worthy of another, if less familiar moniker, the Emerald Coast.
Nowadays, you're just as likely to see a Mercedes as a pickup. Cadillac Escalades and Lexis RX330 SUVs are as prevalent as spring break jalopies. And they carry license plates from as far away as Ohio, Michigan, and New York along with the more readily recognized southern states. If you close your eyes and listen carefully, you can even hear German and British accents among the more familiar Southern Twang.
Why, the place even has its share of stars. Country music icon Alan Jackson recently became the official endorser of La Borgata, a 14.5-acre property in Panama Beach within walking distance of the sugar-white sandy beach. Jackson will own one of the 189 units planned for the site by Ronnie Gilley Properties, which has George Jones as its official spokesperson.
But again, the Florida Panhandle is now more than just country. Dallas Cowboy' owner Jerry Jones has a place here. So do actress Patricia Richardson, Chef Emeril Lagasse and Hall of Fame Quarterback Bart Starr. If you look carefully, you might even see Courtney Cox when she comes to visit her brother, Richard, who's one of the area's premier pool builders.
"It's amazing the amount of wealth that's coming here," says one long-time realty pro in the Destin market. "I don't know where that Redneck Riviera thing started, but that's all changing. We're right on the edge of going national."
Make that international, interjects Ken Breland, director of sales at Wild Heron, a nearly 800-acre property owned, in part, by golfer Greg Norman, who designed the 600-home project's golf course. "We're beginning to penetrate the European market like they've done down in Naples," says Breland, who notes that foreign accents are found among the familiar drawl at Wild Heron, too. "Our prices here are half what they are in Southwest Florida, and we're right on the water."
The influx of both national and international visitors also is likely to be hastened by a brand new airport on 9,600 acres that have been donated by the St. Joe Co., perhaps Florida's largest private land owner. Significant regulatory and funding issues must still be overcome before the Panama City-Bay County International Airport can be built. But if it comes to fruition, as most observers believe it will, it will sit just north of West Bay, and will be part of a 78,000-acre preservation area that could be used for wildlife greenways, hunting, fishing, hiking, bird-watching and nature centers.
It is Sandestin that many observers credit with beginning the transformation from honky-tonk red to emerald green. And it is the Vancouver, B.C.-based resort developer, Intrawest ULC, which recently became a privately held company, that transformed Sandestin into an all-inclusive, 2,400-acre golf and beach resort straddling Highway 98 just a few miles east of Destin.
Sandestin was actually started in the mid-1970s by local developer Peter Bos, who, while blessed with great vision, had limited resources. And after finishing much of the property's southern portion between the highway and the Gulf, his finances gave out. Intrawest, Sandestin's third owner, acquired the resort from a Malaysian company in 1996. And although the local, "it-can't-be-done" nay-sayers were certain there was no market for vacation homes on the northern, much larger, bay-side portion of the property, Sandestin now boasts every type of ownership possibility anyone could ever want -- on both sides of the highway.
Intrawest is perhaps more famous for its 15 mountain resorts, including Whistler in British Columbia, Tremblant in Quebec, Mammoth and Squaw Valley in California and Stratton in Vermont. Indeed, Sandestin was the company's first-ever warm-weather property. (It now has four.)
But by applying the same "placemaking" principles that proved so successful on the slopes, the company has proven the negative nabobs wrong.
Just as Sandestin has raised the bar in Destin on the western, Ft. Walton-end of the Emerald Coast, the Towne of Seahaven is destined to do the same for Panama City Beach on the eastern end.
Located on a 53-acre, largely blank canvas with more than a quarter of a mile fronting on a beach that is generally acknowledged as one of the finest in the world, Seahaven will be a village-centered community with a core of vibrant shops, restaurants and nightlife, all surrounded by an assortment of 3,000 upscale residences.
Intrawest has a hand in Seahaven, too. Its sales and marketing arm, Playground Destination Properties, will perform those chores for developer Neel Bennett and his family. But hiring Playground and a host of top planners, architects and designers wasn't the only smart move the Bennett clan made.
Back in 1924, Bennett's grandfather bought the property for 10 cents an acre as a throw-in as part of a much larger transaction. At the time, "no one else wanted the land because you couldn't grow anything on it," says Neel. So, his grandfather bought it with the thought of putting up a saw mill.
Luckily, those plans fell through. Now the site is one of the largest undeveloped parcels on the Emerald Coast. And Neel, whose says his family has "had a long love affair with the land" here, is getting the "opportunity to do the job my grandfather started to do in the 1920s."
The Towne of Seahaven, with its four distinct villages, all geared around the central village, is being billed as the first true destination resort in the popular Panama City Beach coastal area. A mini-city, if you will, with 60 entertainment hot spots, villas, townhouses, hotels, a conference center and its own in -village transportation system.
"When my grandfather bought this land, people told him he was crazy. Needless to say, we're very grateful he didn't listen to them," says Neel. "Now we're going to do something with it that he would be proud of."
The Bennett family also is working with Playground on another Panama City Beach property called Sanctuary Beach, which just might be the last piece of pristine real estate on the Gulf Coast. And the project proves that at least one local isn't a yokel when it comes to developing the land in these parts.
Now 45, Neel Bennett, born, raised and still living in Panama City, has been coming to the 43-acre property that fronts St. Andrews Bay since he was 10. He learned to swim there. So when he was presented with an opportunity to buy it three years ago, he jumped at the chance. Especially since the seller was thinking of "clear-cutting" the entire site.
"It's a one-of-a-kind property," Neel says of Sanctuary Beach, which is graced with 100-year-old, moss-draped live oaks.
"A parcel like this is usually a state park or a preserve. It's old Florida, the Florida that was a true, untouched paradise. I bought it from another developer who was going to take everything down. But I was convinced this could be something special, that we could build value by doing things differently."
Different, indeed. Besides eight spectacular waterfront lots, the community will feature 275 condominiums and 125 single-family houses. A total of 400 units will be built. That's about nine to the acre when the county would have allowed twice that, and a density most other developers would have grabbed at and run.
Not Bennett, a fourth-generation local who has what Playground's Breland says is "a sense of pride that merchant builders don't have." The national developers build excellent, quality projects, according to Breland, who heads sales at Sanctuary as well as Wild Heron. "But they have no sense of ownership because they don't live here. Neel is a real steward of his land."
And so goes the Emerald Coast. Not only is it no longer the Redneck Riviera, it's fast becoming one of North America's ultimate places to play.
"A lot of people see what was here," says Panama City Beach Mayor Lee Sullivan. "But only a few see what could be here. And now we are witnessing the creation of something special."
The Growth of Panama City Beach
By Marta Rose
The growth of Panama City Beach has of late been compared to that of its southern cousin, Miami
Beach. Known as the "million dollar sandbar," Miami Beach in the 1930s was born of fantasy and
speculation, designed for fun and profit. A morphing of modern architecture and movieland fantasy,
Bauhaus sleekness, Art Deco glamour and tropical imagery, the Miami Beach "look" was designed
specifically for the hotels and apartments of this emerging resort.
Another Florida city is going through a similar metamorphosis. Both tropical and tranquil in nature,
Panama City Beach is an emerging beachfront resort city as well, more the likes of the pre-glittering
Miami Beach in the 1920's. In the twenties on the Emerald Coast, small cottages were built, mostly on
the north side of the narrow highway spanning the distance of "the island." Later, when the concept of
motels came into being, chain and local mom and pops sprang up all along the water's edge. The
cottages and motels were favorite vacation spots for families from Alabama and Georgia. Amusement
and theme parks, miniature golf courses, souvenir shops and restaurants supported the tourist trade
during the summer months. Few families actually lived on the "Miracle Strip" as the area had become
known, and during all but the summer months the beach reminded one of a ghost town.
A new resort destination is on its way.
Once dubbed "The Redneck Riviera" , Panama City Beach is undergoing a massive growth and
redevelopment explosion at the moment. As of early 2006, 114 new developments are underway or
have recently been completed, representing 26,762 new units with the removal of 3,728 old units, for a
net of 23,075 new units - most with completion schedules set by winter of 2007. Twenty of these
developments have been completed or have the first phase completed. Many of these resorts will
combine residential space with a collection of enchanting eateries, exhilarating attractions and chic retail.
A new skyline of distinctive architecture fills the horizon, from classic seaside bungalows to sleek
Caribbean-style resorts. Whether strolling, shopping, dining, dancing or people-watching is your thing,
Pier Park-the 900 square foot entertainment complex spanning the Gulf of Mexico to Highway 98-will be
fully opened by summer of 2007, filled with irresistible cafes, galleries, shops, restaurants and a state-ofthe-
art 16-screen movie theater. "Pier Park will be the new downtown Panama City Beach," states Paul
Ajdaharian, Regional Vice President of Simon Property Group, the project's developer. If you love to
golf, try out the greens at any one of Panama City Beach's five champion golf courses. If you're into
swimming, check out the new $4 million Aquatic Center at Frank Brown, where new hiking trails have
also recently been cleared. New museums, theaters, galleries and parks seem to be arriving on the scene
daily. Two major "economic development initiatives" are being developed at Interstate 10 and Highway
79, a wildlife park and a theme park. The names of these projects could not be announced at this
publication's press time, but a press conference by the developers on May 31st will announce the details
to the world.
Despite all this growth, the real estate market in Panama City Beach has been attacked in recent months.
As with many things in life, a description of the state of things depends on who you ask. Some feel the
market has "hit a trough," and blame greed as the reason for the stagnation of condo sales. In the past
several years "a building frenzy that outpaced even the feverish speculative buyers who swarmed here
from places like Birmingham and Atlanta" has taken place, wrote the Atlanta Journal Constitution in
April. But many feel the market has finally leveled off, and the moderation is good.
"Real estate is always a good investment," says Teresa Dyer, President of the Bay County Association of
Realtors. "It's now both a seller's and a buyer's market." Not to mention the fact that anything on the
beach will always go up in value. Bob Pirrung, a realtor at Prudential Shimmering Sands, had a man ask
him if he thought the area was a just splash in the pan, not really a good place to invest. "I asked him if
he had noticed all the new banks coming into the area and the branches popping up like mushrooms all
over the Panama City and Panama City Beach area," Bob tells. "After a moment, he said yeah....Well,
banks go where the action is, and the action is only just beginning. I think the saying is money chases
money."
In March the Forbes/Slatin Report acknowledged that Bay County is about to become one of the fastest
growing areas in the nation, declaring that the adage "Build it and they will come" occasionally happens
in real life. Here, "it" is the new Bay County International Airport, scheduled to break ground later this
year and be completed in 2009, and "they" are home-buying retirees from the Midwest and Northeast,
time-sharing vacationers, beachfront aficionados, spring-break revelers, real estate investors, developers,
speculators and flippers. "The rush is just beginning," it observes. Rush indeed...in addition to opening
direct travel channels from all over the nation, the European market and the rest of the world, the new
airport will create an estimated 14,000+ jobs for Bay County and generate hundreds of millions in
additional revenue. In May, Money Magazine on CNN.com reported that Panama City Beach is the top
city forecasted for the fastest growth in the nation, where prices are expected to rise 21 percent from
June 2006 to June 2007. (Other Florida cities in the top ten include Lakeland and Ocala.)
Still a best kept secret.
One Ohio resident, who has bought and sold real estate in Panama City Beach for years, cites two
explanations for the area's bright future: the new airport and the affordable real estate prices. "The new
airport should start a frenzy of buying in this area," he says. "Just a shovel in the ground should bring
the prices up." He observes the popularity of East Coast real estate in the European marketplace,
namely to Germans and Brits. "They buy the East Coast like crazy. When they see Panama City
Beach's prices, they're going to suck up this property like no tomorrow!" '
Going to ' are the key words here. Most of the world - and even the country - still don't know about our little slice
of paradise. The Northerners, he adds-referring to three of the top feeder northern and mid-western states, Ohio,
Michigan and Indiana-have long been buying Fort Myers and Naples at $1,100 per square foot.
Panama City Beach is about half of that.
"The best way to predict the future is to create it," states City Planner Mel Leonard, who described the
CRA's (Community Redevelopment Agency) "facelift of Front Beach Road" at the Chamber's Friday at
the Beach breakfast in February. The eight-mile stretch of Front Beach Road, beginning around
Laketown Wharf and traveling westward, will begin to transform into a more pedestrian and peoplemoving
zone within two to three years with the addition of sidewalks, bike paths, benches, street lamps,
tropical landscaping and a multi-modal transportation system which will run continuously throughout
the beach, joined to a central garage.
There's certainly a lot to love about Panama City Beach, and it's no surprise that tourism is Panama City
Beach's largest industry. With its 27 miles of white sand beaches and beautiful emerald water, over
seven million visitors spend an estimated $1.29 billion annually while visiting "The World's Most
Beautiful Beaches." Over four million overnighters stay an average of four nights, while an additional
three million annual visitors consist of day trippers . Although summertime continues to be the busiest
tourist season, Panama City Beach is slowly becoming a year-round market. For more updates and
information on Panama City Beach, stay in touch with the Chamber by calling (850) 235-1159 or visit
us online at pcbeach.org
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