How can you gage market conditions in a specific area?
One way is the Absorption Rate. This is defined by dividing the number of properties available by the number that has sold in the last month for a given area. An example might be if there are 100 properties available in a market and 10 have sold in the past month - the Absorption Rate for that particular market is 10. This indicates that based on these statistics it will take 10 months to sell the current inventory.
An average Absorption Rate is considered to be 5 to 6 months. Less than this is considered a seller's market and more to be a buyer's market.
Statistics compiled in July of 2008 show an overall Absorption Rate of nearly 12 months for Hunterdon County in New Jersey.
The lowest areas weighed in with an Absorption Rate of just over 7 months and the highest was over four years. While you could argue that some of these computations did not have enough statistics within them to be representative, in general they are considered one barometer of how a particular market is doing.
And, this Absorption Rate is broken down further for the Hunterdon County by price point. In this example the homes under $300,000 had an Absorption Rate of just over 7.5 months and those over a million $ were in excess of 21 months. The price points in-between showed several weak spots with some other price points in excess of 23 months.
Then, you could also break these numbers down even further to show price point within area and the resulting Absorption Rate (these figures could even be taken down to specific developments).
This Absorption Rate is not the only factor in gaging the market conditions for a specific area, but they are a fairly good indicator.
You can visit my site at http://www.jpeters.com/to learn more and to see the specific numbers that were compiled.
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