John Topa, FHA Mortgage Specialist

Optimism ruled the markets last week -- optimism about employment, optimism about housing, and optimism about inflation.

Mortgage rates edged lower overall.

Despite the positive sentiment from Wall Street, consumer confidence in the economy reached a 28-year low.

This is a normal divergence because investors live in the "future" of markets while Americans live in the "right now" of life where food prices are high, gas prices are still rising, and job prospects are somewhat weak.

Consumer confidence surveys have to be taken at face value, though. Yes, Americans are nervous about the economy and their household budgets, but that rarely deters them from spending.

In April, for example, Retail Sales (excluded autos) were up 0.5 percent -- more than double analyst expectations. And this was before economic stimulus checks showed up in tax-filers' mailboxes.

Perhaps this is one more reason why markets were so pleased last week.

This week, there isn't much economic information to sway markets. On Tuesday, we'll see the Producer Price Index which is like a Cost of Living for Business measurement and on Friday we'll see the Existing Home Sales report.

Strength in either will be good for economy and should benefit both stocks and bonds, and should lower mortgage rates. Weakness will have the opposite impact.

Retail Sales measures total receipts at stores that sell tangible "things" and -- aside from weak demand for automobiles and automobile parts -- Retail Sales displayed surprising strength in April.

So much strength, in fact, that many experts are changing their predictions about the U.S. economy's fate.

Several months ago, most pundits declared that a economic recession was all but inevitable. Today, a growing number are changing their views.

Not only are stock and credit markets improving, but data such as April's Retail Sales figures suggest that their fears were overblown.

The takeaway from a story like this is that "experts" do a much better job of interpreting the past than predicting the future. A person can make an educated guess, but it's impossible to know what the future holds for the economy, or for housing, or for mortgage rates.

Even when the outcome is "inevitable".

When real estate news is reported on television or in the papers, it's usually told as a national story. Unfortunately, stories like these aren't helpful for everyday Americans because real estate is not a national market.

Real estate is local.

The graph above was used by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in a speech to Columbia Business School earlier this week. Using data from conforming mortgage fundings, it shows the change in home prices from year-to-year on a county level.

Any county not in red increased in value.

In other words, contrary to what reporters tell us, real estate is retaining its value just fine nationwide. Aside from a few counties and states, most areas appreciated.

Graphics like this put important real estate issues in perspective. Home values may falling precipitously in some areas, but those neighborhoods represent just a fraction of the country overall.

In most regions, home values are up.

John Topa, First Sunrise Mortgage, Northeast PA Mortgage Advisor. www.FirstSunriseMortgage.com

The ubiquity of "free" credit reporting services like FreeCreditReport.com, TrueCredit.com, and AnnualCreditReport.com have helped breed a new generation of credit-aware Americans.

Because credit ratings have more importance to everyday life than in years past, this is a welcome development. For example:

• Lenders use credit ratings to determine borrowing rates
• Insurers use credit ratings to determine premiums
• Employers use credit ratings to make hiring decision

Unfortunately for Americans, though, not all credit reports are created equal. And when it comes to actually applying for credit in the form of a new credit card or mortgage, the free reports are worth precisely what they cost.

This is one reason why home buyers should have their credit reviewed by a mortgage lender as soon as possible in the home buying process -- the free reports offered by the major credit bureaus may be misleading and incomplete.

Free credit reports are useful for identifying identity theft and reviewing active accounts but do very little to help a potential creditor gauge your creditworthiness.

As the chart shows us, each industry's creditors has a way they like to do business and that way is the "standard" way.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal)

John Topa, First Sunrise Mortgage, Northeast PA Mortgage Advisor. www.FirstSunriseMortgage.com

But, investors were most excited about the Federal Reserve's hint that its rate-cutting cycle may be over.

The week was quiet until Wednesday when the Federal Reserve voted to lower the Fed Funds Rate by a quarter-percent.

The rate cut wasn't the big news, however.

Market players were most interested in Fed's press release in which it confirmed that the economy is struggling, but improving. The remarks were both soothing and a strong contrast to the Alarmist Analysts -- the ones that make for better television than analysis sometimes.

The Fed's statement also forced investors to rethink their economic outlook for the short- and long-term and when investors change their outlook, markets can be volatile.

One of the more important shifts in thinking now is the attitude towards the U.S. Dollar. An improving economy tends to be good for the dollar and that can help lead to lower mortgage rates.

The dollar's gains last week, incidentally, helped lower gas prices nationwide for the first time in almost 3 weeks. In the 18 days leading up to Friday, gas prices had made 18 consecutive record-highs.

This week, with very little new data and with few companies reporting earnings, expect market momentum to determine in which direction mortgage rates will go.

Because momentum can change quickly, be prepared to lock your mortgage rate if you see one that fits your budget -- it may not last long.

John Topa, First Sunrise Mortgage, Northeast PA Mortgage Advisor. www.FirstSunriseMortgage.com