Julie Paez GRI, CHMS

Bank Owned Statistics for Northern WI Year End 2011

Just going over some year end numbers and - again - I get the most questions on info regarding bank owned and distressed sale properties. There was a news broadcast last week regarding this topic and I wanted to share some info I found with you - esp since I think it tells a very different story - bank owned sales do not appear to be on the rise from what I see in northern WI.

Looking back to 2009 when this market really started out we say roughly 82 bank owned sales in the entire MLS by the two biggest companies that house the listings; in 2010 there were approximately 139 and in 2011 roughly 120. Again, these numbers are pulled by looking at the number of homes sold by the top 2 leading bank owned sales offices in our MLS. It is NOT exact but I feel a "fair' estimate of the overall market.

Now regarding average price; in 2009 the average sale price was 103,193 : in 2010 the average sale price was 100,375 and in 2011 the average sale price was 82,908. The list to sell ratios are also declining, In 2009 the average list to sell ratio was 86%, in 2010 it was 76% and in 2011 it dropped to 73%. This is an average of all sales and I would expect the waterfront homes to be on the high end while the off water and vacant land sales will be on the lower end of those ratios. If I have time I may extract that info in the future but the KEY is to negotiate on your own and not in competition with another buyer.

December 2011 results for the Northern WI counties of Vilas and Oneida!

After a better than expected October and November, December was slightly disappointing. Home sales dropped to 78 units in Vilas and Oneida Counties for the last month of the 2011 year. That compares with 92 units in December of 2010. However, we only sold 67 units in December of 2009. I can offer little in the way of an explanation for the lackluster results as December sales represent the lowest volume since May’s volume of 74 units. My thoughts are that it could be a reflection of the current economic environment BUT - again - if you look at the last quarter OVERALL we ended up in numbers and this, to me, is a far better indicator and shows a better reflection of the year overall. Sales units in my market segment are up!!

There is one very interesting point to be made. I cannot recall a point where we had more homes being listed than sold. In December, only 85 homes were listed. We almost had more homes sell than were listed! The chart above shows this and you can see where those lines almost overlap in December.... Sellers obviously do not have a great deal of confidence in the market. I have first-hand experience with this as I have had to tell many sellers that I cannot sell their homes for what they believe to be a fair value. The market appears to be working as the reduced number of sellers entering the market will reduce supply and in theory, will put upward pressure on prices. Less Supply EQUALS greater demand!!! I will watch this trend as we head into the New Year. For more information or to watch my video blog check out my website www.EagleRiverHomeFinder.com.

We have good snow cover and plenty of ice. The trails are marked and in good shape. We hope that you have the opportunity to come up and see our winter wonderland! Best wishes for the New Year!

Copyright©by Julie Paez, All Rights Reserved, "Market statistics for December of 2011 in Vilas and Oneida Counties."

Bank Owned/Short Sales and how they affect the Vilas and Oneida WI Real Estate Markets as of 11-16-2011

The BIGGEST question I am asked by Buyer’s is: “How can you help me find that great bank owned purchase?” The biggest question I am asked by Seller’s is: “How are bank owned sales affecting my market niche?”

There is always a lot of interest about foreclosures and short sales especially when it comes to our water front market. The fact of the matter is that there simply are not that many lake homes that get foreclosed. The chart above shows non-bank owned vs. bank owned sales for the Northwoods MLS. The total numbers are this: Thus far, there have been 975 unit sales in Vilas and Oneida Counties. Of those, 117 were foreclosures or short sales (12% of the market). Of those 117, only 25 were on water (2.5%). Further breaking that number down, only 5 sold for above $250K. I call this the premium lake home market and these 5 units represent 0.5% of the market.

When I look at the total year of 2010, I saw 1144 total unit sales with 123 bank and short sales (10.7%). There were 25 units sold in 2010 that were on water (2.1%) and 11 homes sold for above $250K (0.9%).

What does this all mean? It looks as if the number of foreclosures is increasing as a percentage of sales. The reality is that the raw number of sales appears to be more of the problem (975 vs. 1144). We still have 45 days left in CY2011 so we may make up the 169 unit shortfall in unit sales. The number of foreclosures seems to be rather steady. We certainly are not seeing a spike up or down in the number of foreclosures and short sales.

If you are looking for a “steal” on water, they do exist. They simply are not ALWAYS bank owned properties. There are many sellers out there that are highly motivated and those are the homes that are moving at this time. This is great news for buyers. It is not the best of news for sellers. So, again get your ducks in a row and be prepared to pull the trigger so to speak when something becomes available or is REDUCED into your price range because when they do become available they are often highly sought after:)

Bank Owned/Short Sales and how they affect the Vilas and Oneida WI Real Estate Markets as of 11-16-2011.

Not a lot of change from previous months. 85 homes were sold in the month of October in Oneida and Vilas Counties. This compares with 90 units in September and 96 in August. When we look at 2010, we sold 94, 93 and 85 homes in August, September and October. In August, September and October 2009, there were 84, 78 and 109 units sold. So, we are flat with 2010 and a bit up from 2009. The supply of homes remains very good but is a bit reduced from 2009 and 2010. We appear to be steadier than we have been in previous years. A couple of higher priced homes did sell but at steep discounts.

We are now heading into our seasonal downturn. It is not unusual for real estate to slow down around the holidays. In the Northwoods, we slow down a bit earlier as the northern half of the state seems to shut down for the uniquely Wisconsin ritual, the deer hunt.

What do we anticipate in the next 6 months? I anticipate slightly improved volume numbers. When one looks at the trend lines from the past 3 years, one sees about 50-60 units sold in January-March and then slight increases from then on. Another 5% increase may occur as mortgage money remains cheap (4%) and there are some real attractive buys out there! Buyers are out there but they are bargain shopping.

The leaves are down, the lakes are getting cold, the north wind is blowing off of Lake Superior and we have already had snow. The Northwoods will soon be a winter wonderland again! So, find a local REALTOR you trust and start house hunting while rates are low! It continues to be a great time to buy!

Julie Paez - REALTOR - Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS, October 7, 2011 Market Statistic for Vilas and Oneida Counties in Northern Wisconsin

In a repeat performance to last month’s sales figures; it isn’t terrific but it is a nice trend. The red line represents the number of homes sold by month in Vilas and Oneida Counties. In September, there were 90 homes sold in Oneida and Vilas Counties. In 2010, 93 homes sold and in September of 2009, 78 homes sold. In August, there were 96 homes sold. That compares with 94 homes sold in 2010 and 84 homes sold in 2009. These numbers are not super but the red line is becoming a bit more consistent and I believe we are on track to have a better October than last year.

Another trend we are seeing is the reduced number of listings. In 2007 and 2008, there really was a lot of inventory. We sold a lot of homes but the rate at which we sell homes (called the saturation rate) was quite poor. We still are far from healthy but we appear to be heading in the right direction and Seller’s that really have no motivation to sell are slowly not returning their homes to the market.

What can one do as a Seller in a market so heavily favoring the Buyer?

• The most obvious is to reduce the asking price. I know how painful that can be and it is not always the best solution. I am always telling you that “it’s a price war and a beauty contest and you have to win both”.
• If you are already priced competitively (I would suggest actually visiting competitive listings) or allowing me to set up a manual search for you so you can actively see your competition and what they are doing with pricing daily. You will get listings like a Buyer does and this really keeps you up to date with the current market.
• Next, you can consider how you look to the Buyer… or staging. Staging is something that is commonly done in more urban markets. It is not very common here at this time but there are people who can help. Stagers can make suggestions from paint and decorating tips all the way to bringing in pieces of furniture to present your home in the best possible light. I have taken several staging classes and am always ready to provide additional homework for my SellersJ

Mother Nature has blessed us again with spectacular color. The fall season never disappoints here in the Northwood’s! Come up and enjoy th colors in the beautiful northern Wisconsin counties of Vilas and Oneida!