Kai Degner

Harrisonburg/Rockingham Real Estate Market Report Shows Few Sales in January This month's Housing Market Report shows that only 57 residential units sold through the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS Multiple Listing Service (HRAR MLS) during the month of January (Figure 1).

That's no surprise, really, as the low number follows a trend for the winter months seen the last five years. Most of these closing would have been from ratified contracts in November and December, a time of year where many people are focused on the holidays and buying gifts rather than purchasing real estate.

Anecdotally, it seems area REALTORS are seeing more activity by buyers the last month or so, which would suggest the coming months having an increased number of closings.

Good News for Balancing Market: Inventory Drops

More surprising is the more than 20% reduction in the number of homes for sale in the area (Figure 2). Part of the cause for prices declining is supply is so much higher than demand, so sellers must lower their prices to be considered - so, a reduction of homes on the market is move towards a more balanced market.

Prices are Stabilizing

Since September 2010, prices in the Harrisonburg-Rockingham area have stabilized, and even increased a bit (Figure 3). The average is just a bit under $200,000. The lower median value suggests more lower-priced homes are being sold, which is consistent with last month's analysis on absorption rates.

Looking Ahead

The spring market consistently sees more homes listed for sale, but also more homes sold. The proportion of both will be a determining factor in whether the coming months will see prices remain stable or not.

It remains to be seen whether this means the market has hit bottom - an increase in inventory, from more people putting their homes on the market in the spring for example, could begin to depress prices again.

Of course, it will be towards the end of 2011 before we will know for sure whether this is a turning point or just a temporary reprieve from a declining real estate market. Check back often for additional analysis of the Harrisonburg-Rockingham real estate market.

Original Harrisonburg/Rockingham Real Estate Market Report Posted at KaiDegner.com

Looking for a great investment opportunity in Harrisonburg? My fellow Kline May Realty agent, Eva Ferrell, has two properties listed for sale in Hunters Ridge that are priced very competitively for anyone looking for an investment in James Madison University student housing.

Here are some details - definitely contact me if you're interested in buying!

Both 1314 Bradley Drive and 1396 Bradley Drive in Hunters Ridge are listed at $65,000 and priced to sell. Each has four bedrooms that could be rented to JMU students, so these units have the potential for immediate cash flow. 1396 Bradley Drive is a short sale situation.

Hunters Ridge apartments have a Home Owners Association and fees that cover exterior maintenance, trash collection, common area maintenance, snow removal, and road maintenance. Hunters Ridge apartments have been around a while, and are often rented to JMU students. It's unlikely properties are in "mint" condition, but the price of these properties give them potential to be a worthy investment.

Contact me, Kai Degner, Harrisonburg real estate agent, for more information on purchasing these or any other properties in the Harrisonburg area. Image Source: HRAR MLS

Original Post at www.KaiDegner.com

Originally Posted at KaiDegner.com

Founders Way Condos in Harrisonubrg were featured at an open house today for area real estate agents, hosted by our friends at Coldwell Banker (listing firm) and Scripture Communities. Aside from enjoying the food provided by Mr. J's Bagels, I took advantage of the opportunity to learn more about these unique homeownership opportunities in Harrisonburg.

Five Founders Way Condos are currently listed for sale, ranging in price from $149,900 to $199,900. In the future, a half dozen more buildings with bring the community to a total of 72 units. Jerry Scripture (of Scripture Communities) showed me around two Founders Way model condo units, one about 1,300 square feet with two bedrooms and bathrooms, and another almost 1,900 square feet with three bedrooms and bathrooms.

Different than the more common two-floor town home arrangement (such as in Liberty Square), the first floor unit was all on one floor - which certain buyers may prefer over a two-story option. The top-level Founders Way Condos, though, do provide a two-story alternative for those wanting that option - with some units also having an extended loft.

Jerry also gave me some insight into the condo fees and utility payments, which sounded like a great value to me (all units have fiber optic cables, providing for communication lines and HD television). The plans do include a pool and club house in the future.

Buying a Founders Way Condo

If you are interested in learning more, hearing up to date listing information, and potentially purchasing a brand new Founders Way Condo in Harrisonburg, let's start a conversation! Just contact me with this online form, email Kai.Degner[at]KlineMay.com, or call my cell at (540) 442-0316.

Absorption rate is a common statistic in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market reports. Absorption rates describe how quickly or slowly homes are being sold in the market. The higher the rate, the more aggressive a home seller needs to be to have their home noticed, because a higher rate means homes in that market are not selling as quickly.

Calculating 12-Month Absorption Rate

Absorption rates are calculated by choosing an amount of time, like 12 months, and seeing how many properties sold in that time in the market segment you are interested in exploring. To get the 12-month absorption rate, divide the number of homes sold in a market segment in the past 12 months by 12 months. Then, divide the number of properties currently for sale in the market segment (the inventory) by the previous result. That's the absorption rate. A final result of 6 is considered a neutral market, a higher number (homes take longer to sell) is considered a buyers market and a lower number (homes are selling quickly) being a sellers market.

Studying Absorption Rates in the Harrisonburg/Rockingham Real Estate Market

The "real estate market" is in actuality many different markets, as the overall number of properties for sale can be broken down into almost endless subcategories. Price ranges are a useful category to use when exploring a market, as they are a quick way to study differences in the market. Townhomes and single family homes are also two useful categories of distinction.

Karl Waizecker of Kline May Realty recently studied 2010 real estate sales data from the Harrisonburg/Rockingham Associations and REALTORS MLS and calculated absorption rates at various price levels for townhomes and single family homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. His analysis included breaking down Harrisonburg and Rockingham County into the county's geographic sections and Massanutten, but the figures here show only Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as a whole.

Figure 1 describes the 12-month absorption rate for the townhome market at various price levels. The chart shows that lower priced townhomes are in more competitive market. That makes some sense, since more people can afford lower priced townhomes and there is thus more supply relative to the demand compared with higher priced townhomes. In fact, some of the lower price segments actually are in a sellers market - as are the highest priced townhomes!

Townhomes priced between $120,000 and $179,999 are selling the slowest of anything in the whole real estate market. The big driver for this is how many townhomes in each category are for sale as of December 31, 2010: 51 townhomes for sale between $120,000-$139,999, 49 between $140,000-$159,999, and 35 between $160,000-$179,999.

Figure 2 shows the 12-month absorption rate for the single family home market at various price levels. Again, at the lower priced levels, homes are selling at a quicker pace - but all the categories (except one) have an absorption rate higher than six, suggesting there is a buyers market at all price levels for single family homes.

Figure 1: 12-Month Absorption Rates for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Townhomes on December 31, 2010 (Source: Harrisonburg Rockingham Association of REALTORS MLS)

Figure 2: 12-Month Absorption Rates for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Single Family Homes on December 31, 2010 (Source: Harrisonburg Rockingham Association of REALTORS MLS)

Original post by Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Real Estate Agent Kai Degner in the Harrisonburg/Rockingham Housing Market Report.

Originally posted at KaiDegner.com.

Last night at the Harrisonburg City Council meeting, we were treated to a vignette from the upcoming Harrisonburg High School musical production of How to Succeed in Business without Really Trying.  A synopsis of the play and its history is at Wikipedia.

I look forward to seeing the whole show next month, and urge everyone to treat themselves by attending one of the performances.  The performance dates are  Thursday, Friday and Saturday, Feb. 17, 18, and 19 at 7:30pm, and Sunday, Feb. 20 at 3:00pm - all at Harrisonburg High School.  The latest information about the musical will be available at the Harrisonburg High School website.

I was first introduced to the impressive musical and theatrical talents at our area high schools while I was the executive director of the Arts Council of the Valley.  It's amazing to see the talents of our student actors and set producers and theater directors combine to create these productions.