Kathy Clulow ASP® SRES®

Canadian Real Estate Review

1997 - 2007 A Decade In Review

Pent-up demand, population growth, tight inventory levels, and the longest economic expansion since World War II collectively fuelled one of the best decades on record for residential real estate in Canada, according to a report released by RE/MAX. Download Full Report

The RE/MAX Decade in Review 1997 - 2007 Found that

• Major housing centres across the country experienced strong consecutive growth between 1997 and 2007.

  In 2006, homeownership rates in the country were the highest on record at 68.4 per cent. Population growth has contributed to heated market conditions – especially in Calgary (+31.4 per cent), Edmonton (+20 per cent), Toronto (+20 per cent), and Vancouver (+15 per cent) where percentage increases have hovered in the double-digit range. Overall, Canada’s population rose to almost 33 million in the 2006 census, up approximately 10 per cent from 1996 figures.

• Average price spiralled upward while unit sales climbed in tandem as more and more Canadians bought into homeownership.
  
• Nationally, average price almost doubled in the 10-year period, rising from $154,606 in 1997 to $307,265 in 2007, for a 7.1 per cent annually compounded rate of return.
  
• Home sales across the country increased just over 57 per cent from 331,092 units in 1997 to more than half a million sales last year.
  
• Edmonton led the country in terms of percentage increase in average price. The city saw a 203 per cent upswing in housing values - or an 11.7 per cent increase annually - with average price rising from $111,587 a decade ago to $338,636 in 2007.
  
• Prince Edward Island experienced the highest percentage increase in unit sales, with the number of homes sold up 119 per cent in the 10-year period.
  
• Immigration and in-migration have played a serious role in jumpstarting residential housing markets, particularly in British Columbia, Alberta, and to some extent, Saskatchewan over the past decade. At first, there was an influx of American buyers, especially in Canada’s coastal regions and recreational hot spots, as our southern neighbours took advantage of the almighty US greenback. Then the European and Middle Eastern purchasers flooded the market, buying up real estate considered ‘cheap’ by international standards. In recent years, there have been a growing number of purchasers from Mainland China.
  
• From a global perspective, there’s no question that Canadian real estate brings good value to the table.
  
• The non-cyclical nature of the decade comes as some surprise.

  Never before have we seen such a continuous run up in Canadian real estate. Clearly, strength in all markets has been directly linked to solid growth in local, provincial and national economies. Low interest rates, job security, and consumer confidence have all served to further bolster home-buying activity across the nation.

• Robust economic performance in Western Canada has also drawn job seekers from across the country, looking to capitalize on employment opportunities.
  
• As demand for housing increased across the country, the supply of homes listed for sale began to contract.

  Multiple offers were commonplace in many areas, some with sales-to-listings ratios as tight as 80 to 90 per cent. Nationally, 1997 marked the first year since 1988 that the sales-to-listings ratio hit 50 per cent. The sales-to-listings ratio would remain above 60 per cent from 2001 onward – rising to as high as 68 per cent in 2002.

• The decade was not without its obstacles – the high-tech meltdown, a US recession, 9/11, SARS, Mad Cow, a blackout that affected the entire Northeastern seaboard, natural disasters such as ice storms, hurricanes, and forest fires and more recently, the credit crunch south of the border.

Given the continuation of sound economic fundamentals, it’s expected that residential real estate markets across the country will continue to experience healthy activity, albeit at a more moderate pace.

Sales Representative
RE/MAX Scugog Realty Ltd. Brokerage 905-852-6143
Each office is independently owned and operated

Two upcoming events put on by The Arts Community in Uxbridge illustrate the commitment the community has to caring and sharing with and for others in the community.

Ryleepus Productions is presenting a special performance of Neil Simons "Barefoot in the Park" on Valentines Night with the proceeds going to Precious Minds a charitable organization that provides support to families in North Durham Region with children who have barriers to learning by providing support, linking parents with resources, raising awareness, and providing financial assistance.

A second event is an auction of local artists work to support the AhMen Projectwhich in turn will be using the proceeds of the theatrical presentation to support the Uxbridge youth center and the Uxbridge Arts Association. The art works in the auction will be on display at the Green Goose Gallery from February 4 to February 22 and Blue Heron books from February 23 to March 2. Local Artists donating their works are Lis Simpson, Richard Simpson, Kathy Goldberg, Gretel Boose, Sarah Cowley, Shirley Neal, Linda lee Purvis, Saundra Reiner, Cynthia Cupples, Denny Corbett, Fly Freeman, Wynn Walters, Lynn Bishop, and Tom Loach Creations, Carmel Brennen.

The AhMen Project, to be staged in the Music Hall March 28th to April 6th, is the new work of Anna Mackay Smith and is a theatrical presentation of the stories written and presented by local women about the men in their lives.

The Art community in Uxbridge has its roots in history.

As far back the late 1800s Art in the form of what has become know as The Dowling Scrolls, created by Rev James Thomas Dowling was used to illustrate biblical stories during his sermons.The scrolls are 7 feet high, and there is a total length of 446 feet.They were painted using oil house paint on cotton canvas.

Uxbridge is treated to a rare glimpse of history when, to the enjoyment and amazement of all who see them, The Dowling Scrolls are, on rare occasions, unrolled and brought to light for a significant display.  Rev James Thomas Dowling created this astounding one of a kind work of art during his tenure at the original Uxbridge Baptist Church during the 1870's

Uxbridge is blessed with a very strong and thriving arts community with theatrical productions throughout the year.

In the summer you can enjoy  Art In The Park, and the  Uxbridge Celebration of the Arts and Studio Tour  which includes visual, theatrical, musical, film, Books and authors there is something for everyone. If your interest are in the line of Gardening you can tour the Gardens of Uxbridge.

In the fall you can enjoy  Annual Steam Threshing Heritage Days  which on occasion include a re-enactment representing soldiers and their camp from the ‘War of 1812'

At Christmas you can revel in and Experience the Joy of that First Christmas or listen to presentation of Handel's Messiah on alternating years.

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If you are planning on using an ice hut check out the New ice hut Regulations as only approved portable ice huts will be allowed to be used for the duration of the tournament.

Ice Hut Registration Formsfor Lake Simcoe are available from the Town of Georgina.

* Prize structure based on a full field of 150 teams

For up to date area satellite weather radar visit Environment Canada's Weather Office site

Locatedapproximately 60 - km north of the city of Toronto, Lake Simcoe is one of the worlds largest freshwater lakes that freeze completely over in the winter. Roughly 1/2 of Ontario's population is within one hour's drive of the lake and all that it offers.

The lake occupies roughly 20% of its total watershed of 3,580 km². It is southern Ontario's largest body of water and is part of the Trent Severn Waterway that connects Lake Ontario to Georgian Bay.

Most of the 35 tributary rivers and five major tributaries that drain the watershed originate along the southern boundary of the watershed. These southern tributaries have their headwaters in the Oak Ridges Moraine and run north into southern shores of the lake.

Early Settlers in the Uxbridge area used these many streams and rivers to supply power for lumber and grist mills. While some dams have been replaced over the years as flood control, the remnants of some of the old dams still remain.

Picture
(above) satellite view of Lake Simcoe (from wikipedia)
(on the right) is one of three dams that controlled the water level for J.E. PEERS Mill in Udora
(below) a fluor bag from the old mill

Despite Recent Headlines About The Stock Market

--- Economic Indicators Bode Well For Home Buyers and Sellers Alike.

While not everyone agrees on the details, there seems to be a consensus that the Canadian economy will slow for the first half of this year and then revive in the second half.

Indicators are good for a strong spring real estate market with stable house prices and lower mortgage rates. This in turn will help to increase the affordability factor for home buyers thinking of buying that first home or moving up to a larger home to fill the needs of a growing family.

Perhaps you are contemplating the enjoyment of sitting on that old wooden Muskoka chair at the waters edge while sipping your favourite beverage. Watching the kids swim or just fishing off the end of the dock.

Whatever your dream from first time home buyer, to the seasonal, recreational or country property all the indicators are in place. Now just may be the best time this year to prepare and look towards making that purchase.

MARKET INDICATORS

LENDING RATES & ECONOMIC GROWTH

The Bank of Canada -- dramatically lowered its growth forecast for the economy on Thursday, and said economic conditions will probably require further interest rate cuts this year. The bank is predicting slower economic growth this year compared to last year


In its January Monetary Policy Report, the Central Bank now predicts the Canadian economy will grow by 1.8% in 2008, compared with 2.3% previously. Growth will be slower in the first half of this year, averaging about 1.3% per quarter, before rising to 2.3% in the latter half.

AFFORDABILITY

The Royal Bank of Canada -- Buying a house will become easier and more affordable in 2008,

Two Days after the Bank of Canada cut its key rate by one-quarter of a percentage point on Tuesday "Derek Holt, assistant chief economist at RBC, said he expected consumers will benefit as longer-term mortgage rates come down. He added that central banks will probably lower interest rates further -- perhaps by a full percentage point -- and that should make short-term mortgages more affordable. "

The report also indicates potential home buyers will also be helped by a slowing in the appreciation rate of the resale value of homes.

TAXATION

The Province Of Ontario ---

Assessments for property tax purposes will be updated this year. The impact of this reassessment will not be felt, if at all, in the housing market until 2009 when the new assessments come into effect.

OUTSIDE FACTORS

Will The Current Downturn In The US Housing Market Affect our Market ?

There are many indicators that the US market has reached or is very near the bottom of the current cycle and will no longer threaten to spill over into our market place.

In a comment on Has The Market Bottomed Out? - The Crystal Ball Says... by Brad Andersohn. Jeff Moore quotes the Chief Economist for Bank Of America who felt the second half of 2008 would be the light at the end of the tunnel for real estate and that the media focus on subprime mortgages has prevented an earlier rebound. "Dr. Lynn Reaser also said that foreign currency and our weak dollar is creating an upswing in activity in real estate now. "

Are you tired of the high cost of Gasoline?

Are you old enough to remember when Gasoline was $0.25 a Gallon or about 5 and 1/2 cents a litre. The year was 1966 and there was an ongoing gas price war just outside of Toronto in a little town called Markham. My husband (boyfriend at the time) used to drive to Markham from his home in Scarbourough to fill up his 1966 Volkswagen beetle and you could cruise all night on couple of bucks worth of gas. He remembers laughing at a hitchhiker he picked up who told him he would see gasoline at $4.00 a gallon and more in his lifetime.

Fast forward to today and gasoline is currently selling for just under the $1.00 litre mark (over $4.50 a gallon) here in Uxbridge while in other parts of the Province it is as high as high as $1.13. Just a few years ago it was only 65 to 70 cents a litre here in Uxbridge.

Become a GasBuddy member, and help everyone save on fuel purchases by informing all the price of gas in your area or on your drive to and from work each day.

I was drawn to this web site by several posts here on active|rain. The site has an amazing amount of information on gas prices across North America. It also provides other useful information and surveys. One survey with over 1800 respondents indicated that 26% of the respondents keep their vehicles for between 160,000 km and 240,000 km.

With the price of oil on the rise and predictions of $1.40 a litre (Over $6.00 a gallon) by summer for gasoline one has to wonder how long will it be before people start to make changes in their lifestyle as a result? How long before a lot more people start to use public transit and leave their cars at home, start to carpool more frequently or start to practice any other form of fuel savings they can think of? Out here in the country I think the best I could do is ride a bicycle to work, 10 miles one way, it would certainly limit the amount of appointments I could accommodate in a day, and showing are a complete other question.  Some of us will have to keep the old jalopy going and pay whatever price is going.

Everything changes, in 1966 when gas was 25 cents a gallon, a house could be bought for under $30,000 fast forward to 2008 and that same house is worth over $350,000, and gasoline is over $4.50 a gallon

So I leave you to do the math, are house prices still a bargain or are gas increases far exceeding the cost of inflation.