The median home price in the U.S. has plunged nearly 40% in a little over five years, but the worst is definitely over: The market has finally wrung out the last excess valuations born of the housing bubble. Before you break out the party hats, note that this doesn’t mean prices across the nation are poised to rebound anytime soon. Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital, a provider of real estate data and analytics, says the housing market is in a suspended state, with positive and negative factors offsetting one another. But he doesn’t expect another free fall in prices, assuming things are left to work themselves out and there are no further shocks to the economy.
Although the percentage of sales of distressed homes will rise, the federal government’s latest loan-modification program might allow as many as 1.5 million to two million homeowners to refinance, estimates Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. Zandi says that further home-price declines nationwide will be limited to 3% to 5% and that 2012 will be the year that prices finally stabilize — setting the stage for gains in 2013.
Short-lived spikes in prices will affect some cities sooner. When housing markets touch bottom and begin to stabilize, price appreciation tends to be spread unevenly, creating a lot of confusion about where the recovery is occurring and when, says David Stiff, chief economist at Fiserv Case-Shiller. Even within a single city, more desirable neighborhoods will stabilize first, while prices in other neighborhoods may fall at a rapid pace.
Touching bottom
In the year ending September 30, home prices across the U.S. fell by 2.6%, and the median home price stood at $171,250, according to Clear Capital. That comes on the heels of a 2.5% decrease from September 2009 to September 2010. In the five-plus years since the peak of the market, home prices nationally fell by 38.1%.
Theoretically, low rates should help push buyers to act. The average interest rate on 30-year fixed mortgages fell to 3.94% in the first week of October 2011, according to Freddie Mac. The past couple of years, predictions that rates would rise were based on the premise that the economy would improve, says Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance, an industry publication.
Other positive signs: Existing home sales increased during the summer and early fall of 2011, according to the National Association of Realtors, after a deep slump following the expiration of the first-time home buyer tax credit. Although the inventory of homes on the market and in foreclosure remains high, a lull in home building over the past three years is gradually easing the surplus.
The lure of affordability and low mortgage rates hasn’t increased buyer demand as much as one might expect. Some would-be buyers can’t get a mortgage, given lenders’ stiffer requirements. Many more are hesitant to pull the trigger on a home purchase, for fear that home prices will continue to fall or that their job prospects are uncertain. Although the recession has technically ended, the economy doesn’t feel better to many.
But Celia Chen, director of research at Moody’s Analytics, says that both corporate and household balance sheets are healthier and should lead to stronger economic growth and improved confidence. She anticipates more robust growth by the second half of 2012, assuming that Congress follows through on its debt-ceiling deal, the Fed keeps interest rates low, and there are no new shocks to the economy.
The foreclosure problem
The dark cloud of foreclosures still hangs over the housing market. The pace of foreclosures has slowed as lenders, loan servicers and regulators have sorted out paperwork and procedures in the wake of the robo-signing controversy that emerged a year ago. But RealtyTrac, which monitors the foreclosure market, says that foreclosure filings have begun to ramp back up.
Nevada, California and Arizona — among the epicenters of the boom and bust — still suffer the highest rates of foreclosure. Georgia, Florida, Utah, Michigan, Idaho, Illinois and Colorado round out the top ten. Among metro areas, Las Vegas still tops the list.
Currently, about 1.84 million home loans are 90 days or more delinquent (a strong predictor of foreclosure) but not yet foreclosed on, and 2.17 million have finished the foreclosure process but haven’t yet been offered for sale, according to Lender Processing Services (LPS).
Of course, the longer lenders take to work through the foreclosure glut, the longer it will take for home-price appreciation to return to its normal pace of 2% to 4% a year. To hasten the process, the federal government may introduce more policy initiatives — although whether they’ll have any meaningful impact or come soon enough is debatable. In October, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, along with their regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, expanded the Home Affordable Refinance Program to allow more underwater borrowers to refinance out of their mortgages into more manageable loans. The FHFA, the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Treasury have called for ideas to handle the foreclosures they own, such as converting them to rental properties for purchase by investors.
If you would like more information regarding how our local real estate market doing, please give me a call or send me an email. I would be more than happy to discuss our real estate market with you and what lays ahead for our area in 2012.
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