Kevin Wallace

Mortgage markets worsened last week on general profit-taking in the U.S. bond market, combined with talk of a coordinated rescue effort for Greece and its debt burden. Mortgage-backed bonds sold off, causing conventional and FHA mortgage rates to rise.

There wasn't much hard data on which to trade last week, either, so momentum took markets farther than they otherwise might have moved on their own. It marked the first time in 5 weeks that rates rose for NH rate shoppers.

This week, data returns. Expect mortgage market movement.

Some of the week's more important releases include:

1. Housing Starts and Building Permits (Wednesday)
2. The release of the last month's FOMC Minutes (Wednesday)
3. Business and consumer inflation figures (Thursday and Friday)

Inclement weather may have impacted last month's Housing Starts reading so pay closer attention to Building Permits. Permits precede actual construction and can be more indicative of economic optimism. If permit readings are strong, it should be a negative for mortgage rates.

The same is true for the FOMC Minutes.

Last month's FOMC post-meeting press-release was decidedly middle-of-the-road, but the statement is just a summary of the Fed's 2-day meeting, boiled down to a few paragraphs. Wednesday's release of the FOMC Minutes will reveal the deeper discussions among members of the Fed. Wall Street will mine it for clues about the future of the economy.

If Wall Street senses optimism coming from the Fed -- again -- mortgage rates should rise.

And, lastly, keep an eye on Thursday and Friday's inflation data. Inflation is bad for mortgage rates so a higher-than-expected reading should spark a bond market sell-off.

Since mid-December, mortgage rates have moved within a tight range and there's little reason for rates will break this range this week. However, we are near the top of the channel. If you know you're going to need a rate locked soon, it's probably best to do early in the week.

for more info, check out our NH Mortgage Blog or fill out our secure, online NH mortgage application!

The mortgage lending landscape changes a lot. Rates and guidelines are in constant flux, and it creates preparedness challenges for buyers in Raymond that aren't paying in cash.

The loan you get today won't always be the loan you get tomorrow.

Because of how frequently bank rules are changing, it can be hard for laypersons to distinguish between mortgage fact and fiction of "what's coming next".

Recently, we saw this with respect to FHA home loans.

January 20, 2010, the FHA issued a press release with new lending guidelines. Specifically, it announced 3 changes that will be effective starting April 5, 2010:

1. Upfront mortgage insurance premiums increase from 1.75% to 2.25%
2. Allowable seller concession reduced from 6% to 3%
3. FICO scores of 580 or lower are subject to a minimum 10% downpayment

But, also in its official statement, the FHA announced it would ask Congress for permission to raise monthly mortgage insurance premiums. This is where the rumors started.

Nestled on page 348 of the Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2011, in a section titled Special Topics, there is a 1-paragraph notation that details the FHA's petition.

1. Raise monthly premiums by roughly 0.30%, or $25 per $100,000 borrowed per month
2. Lower upfront mortgage insurance premiums by 1.25%, or $1,250 per $100,000 borrowed at closing

For now, the request is neither approved nor acknowledged by Congress. It's merely a request. And in the event that Congress does approves it, that doesn't mean that FHA has to stand by its initial projections.

Truth is, about the only thing we know about the future of FHA lending is that, come April 5, 2010, borrowing money is going to be tougher, and mortgage expensive. These are the facts as we know them today.

Homebuyers should plan accordingly.

For more info, check out our NH Mortgage Blog or complete our secure online mortgage application!

The economy's improving but lending standards are not. Nationally, banks are making mortgage approvals harder to come by.

Underwriting guidelines are tightening.

The data comes from the Federal Reserve's quarterly survey to its member banks. The Fed asks senior bank loan officers around the country to report on "prime" residential mortgage guidelines over the most recent 3 months and whether they've tightened.

For the period October-December 2009:

• Roughly 1 in 4 banks said guidelines tightened
• Roughly 3 in 4 banks said guidelines were "basically unchanged"

Just 2 of 53 banks said its guidelines had loosened.

Combine the Fed's survey with recent underwriting updates from the FHA and generally tougher standards for conventional loans and it's clear that lenders are much more cautious about their loans than they were, say, in 2007.

Today's Raymond home buyers and would-be refinancers face a bevy of new borrowing hurdles including:

• Higher minimum FICO scores
• Larger downpayment requirements for purchases
• Larger equity positions for refinances
• Lower debt-to-income ratios

So, if you're on the fence about whether now is a good time to buy a home, or make that refi, consider acting sooner rather than later. It doesn't necessarily matter that mortgage rates are low, or that there's an up-to-$8,000 home purchase tax credit for households that qualify. With each passing quarter, fewer and fewer applicants are eligible to take advantage.

For more info, check out our NH mortgage blog or complete our NH online mortgage application!

Mortgage markets improved last week on domestic jobs data and international banking concerns. The news triggered buying in the bond market and, as a result, conventional, FHA and VA mortgage rates in NH improved for the 4th consecutive week.

Mortgage rates are now at a 6-week low but probably shouldn't be. It underscores just how important global events can be to U.S. mortgage markets.

For example, corporate earnings continue to improve and key elements of the economy are strengthening. Even the Federal Reserve acknowledges this. In most circumstances, that would be a boon for the stock markets and bond markets would suffer, including mortgage bonds.

Last week, that wasn't the case.

Early in the week, as (1) China tightened its monetary policy, (2) Greece did little to quell lingering default fears, and (3) Spain raised its deficit forecasts, global investors sought to reduce their collective risk exposure. For safety of principal, many sold some of their more aggressive positions and moved the cash proceeds into the U.S. bond market -- which includes mortgage bonds.

On Wall Street, this type of trading pattern is called a "flight-to-quality". Because mortgage bonds are backed by U.S. government entities, the debt is considered to be ultra-safe. Last week's extra demand for bonds helped to push prices up and mortgage rates down.

And that was before Friday's weak jobs report. Although the Unemployment Rate fell to 9.7%, the government reported a net loss of 98,000 jobs last month and this, too, helped mortgage rates tick lower.

This week, we'll hope for momentum to continue.

There's very little domestic news to move rates this week so keep an eye on the global market for similar stories like what we saw last week. Or, if you're not sure what to look for, just give me a call or send me an email and I'll be happy to watch the markets and mortgage rates for you.

For more info, check out our NH Mortgage Blog or fill out our NH Mortgage online application and let's work together towards your goals!

On the first Friday of every month, the U.S. government releases its Non-Farm Payrolls data from the month prior. The data is more commonly known as "the jobs report" and it swings a big stick on Wall Street. Especially now -- many analysts believe job growth is tightly linked to the future of the U.S. economy. Therefore, when January's jobs report hits the wires at 8:45 AM ET tomorrow, Manchester home buyers would do well to pay attention. A net job reading that is much higher (or lower) than Wall Street's expectations can make a serious change in home affordability. Wall Street expects that the economy added 13,000 jobs last month. It would mark the second time in 3 months that the jobs report showed a net monthly gain. In November 2008, the economy added 4,000. Jobs matter to the economy for a lot of reasons, but one of the biggest is that when Americans are working, Americans are buying and consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of the economy. Job growth spurs the economy and draws money to the stock market. Unfortunately for rate shoppers, that kind of stock market growth happens at the expense of the bond market which is where mortgage rates are made. Good jobs data usually means higher mortgage rates. Also, job growth can lead to higher home prices. This is because working homeowners are less likely to default on a mortgage versus non-working homeowners. In this way, job growth helps hold foreclosures to a minimum which, in turn, suppresses the housing supply. Less supply means higher prices for home buyers. Mortgage rates are idling this morning in advance of tomorrow's data. If you're shopping for a mortgage rate, the prudent play may be to lock your rate before the jobs data is released. A jobs figure that's higher than the 13,000 expected could cause rate to rise sharply.

For timely information, check out our NH mortgage blog or fill out a NH mortgage application online!