Kyle Frazier, CRS & Marin CA Realtor

[Click HERE for the full article, courtesy of www.ImagineMarin.com]

Building on a trend noted in last month’s report, media coverage of the overall economy has improved. In particular, reporting on the housing market. Forecasters are predicting that 2010 will be the first year since 2005 for housing to contribute to the growth of the U.S. economy (based on a survey by the National Association for Business Economics). According to that organization, home prices are expected to rise 2 percent next year — over 80% of economists surveyed think the recession is over and recovery has begun. The Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann, predicts that sales of existing homes will rise 11 percent in 2010, with sales of new homes climbing 21 percent.

But, perhaps more importantly, the Dow Jones has rocketed up past 10,000 and the tone of the W-shaped recovery dialogue has moderated. It was announced today that JPMorgan Chase plans to hire 1,200 mortgage bankers in light of improved housing market and signs of stability.

Finally, we know from past experience that in down cycles, once the San Francisco housing market recovers, there is a domino effect on surrounding communities. Accordingly, in our current cycle, we believe that our best leading indicator regarding a healthy, appreciating market (particularly in Southern Marin) will be the home sales environment in San Francisco. And there can be no doubt that the San Francisco market has improved dramatically in recent months. Additionally, as the banking institutions regain their footing and again provide bonuses to their employees, we will also see a surge in luxury home sales. In fact, if bonuses are significant and broad-based, I predict a very strong luxury sales market early in 2010 as buyers snap up the many “values” out there in the luxury and ultra-luxury sectors.

As reported in previous months, real buyers have become less numerous. They are placing emphasis on prestige locations, views, lifestyle amenities (usable yards, proximity to clubs/shopping, etc.), schools, and sensible scale. And they are seeking “value.” The Marin County luxury market has favored homes priced under $3 million — although 5 homes traded over $4 million in November 2009. [For a detailed snapshot of current national trends from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing, click HERE. And if you would like a hyper-local report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, e-mail or call me at (415) 350-9440.]

The below graph tracks asking prices for 3 “hot” locales in Marin — Tiburon/Belvedere (they are combined here because they use the same zip code), Mill Valley, and Kentfield. Interestingly, while Belvedere continues to see asking prices drop, Kentfield and Mill Valley have seen asking prices increase over the last 4 months. Of course, asking prices do not necessarily closely reflect selling prices and in Mill Valley, there are lots of homes on the market in the higher price bands, which have not sold.

[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.ImagineMarin.com]

Marin County, California real estate enters the Winter months much the same way it entered the Summer months — with a feeling that activity will be stronger than usual for this time of year. While year over year prices are down across the board no matter how you slice it, many feel as though absent further crisis, we may be nearing the end of the downward cycle — after a full 3 years. Certainly, well priced, updated homes in great locations are selling.

As noted in my Novato update, it is apparent that the low end in Northern Marin has settled on a bottom:

Savvy buyers waiting for “the bottom to hit” recognize that we may be there and that any further price erosion will be outweighed by increased interest rates which are likely around the bend. Surely, home buyers in Novato are finding that it is increasingly difficult to identify “turnkey” homes under $550,000. In the 94949 zip code, median prices year over year dipped a mere 3%. I think many observers would be surprised. Local agents are all talking about a “bounce” in prices over the past several months.

[click HERE for the rest of the article]

Not surprisingly, inventory dropped significantly over the past month to 652 single family homes for sale (we had 762 last month). Note that this includes the Highway 101 corridor (excluding Western Marin inventory and condos).

For a detailed executive summary similar to, but much more detailed than below, providing statistics and trends relating to the Marin real estate market (or any specific zip code), contact me any time. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Kyle Frazier, Broker Associate, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), Realtor

Belvedere and Tiburon real estate is expensive — land values are extraordinarily high. Several homes each year sell for $5 million and up. As 2009 began to unwind, the luxury sector was flat for obvious reasons and it seemed as though the highly valued luxury homes with jetliner views and royal class appointments would never sell again — that has changed. For four months straight we have experienced sales above the $5 million mark. October was no exception with 2 sales.

Nonetheless, sales and activity remain choppy. There are currently 93 listings in the 94920 zip code, which covers Tiburon and Belvedere (down 16 from last month). Twenty-two of these properties are priced over $5 million. In the lower price segments, activity is moderate (3 sales under $2 million). There were 8 sales in September 2009.

Not until March of this year did the median asking price for homes in Belvedere dip below that of 2008. Belvedere was the last Marin city to experience that shift (a full 6 months after Tiburon). Over the past several months however, that shift has become more exaggerated as prices begin reflecting market realities. Currently, the median asking asking price in Belvedere is more than $1.25 million lower than 1 year ago. In contrast, Tiburon’s asking prices have actually increased to the point they are slightly above those of a year ago — of course, these are asking prices, not sales prices.

For homes that sold in October 2009, the average price per square foot was $774 — far above August’s $674. Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of the major price bands:

• 20% of homes priced under $2 million (up from 19% last month);
• 22% of homes between $2 million and $3 million (up 10% from last month);
• 8% of homes between $3 million and $5 million ( down from 12% from last month);
• 4% of homes over $5 million (down from 12% from last month).

Tiburon and Belvedere homes that sold in October 2009 exhibited the following characteristics:

• Number of Sales: 8
• Average Days on Market: 121
• Price: $3,097,500
• Square Feet: 3,684
• Price per Square Foot: $774

If you have any other questions or would like a custom market analysis of your home’s current likely sales price, please call me at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier and I am a Broker, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS) with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane International Realtors. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

p.s. I know of several properties that are not being formally marketed on the MLS, so if you are looking to buy please call me to see if any of these may meet your needs. If you would like a copy of my Tiburon / Belvedere Hotlist, e-mail me at Kyle@ImagineMarin.com.

We know from past experience that in down cycles, once the San Francisco housing market recovers, there is a domino effect on surrounding communities. Accordingly, in our current cycle, we believe that our best leading indicator regarding a healthy, appreciating market (particularly in Southern Marin) will be the home sales environment in San Francisco. And there can be no doubt that the San Francisco market has improved dramatically in recent months. Additionally, as the banking institutions regain their footing and again provide bonuses to their employees, we will also see a surge in luxury home sales. In fact, if bonuses are significant and broad-based, I predict a very strong luxury sales market early in 2010 as buyers snap up the many “values” out there in the luxury and ultra-luxury sectors.

Mill Valley will be first in line to benefit from this influx of local income. Meanwhile, however, the number of homes sold remains low. In October, we had just 20 home sales — virtually the same as in July, August, and September 2009. Many believe that the low number of sales is due in large part to a lack of “sexy inventory.” And in fact, turnkey homes that are priced competitively and located in desirable areas sell FAST. Meanwhile, homes with “challenges” in regard to location, condition, or price are simply not selling.

Sales prices seem to have gathered traction after a slippery first half of the year, last month’s price per square foot of homes sold was $565 (home sales prices have held steady in this general price per square foot range for months now). Of course, price per square foot is an often misleading indicator as applied to individual homes for several reasons (e.g., condition, location, usable yard space, and the size of the home — the larger the home, the lower the price per square foot). Indeed, a nice home in Sycamore Park may sell for $750-$800 per square foot. It all depends on the various factors in play.

Note that the graph below tracks asking prices and the average price per square foot for homes on the market is rising. It is currently approximately $620 per square foot. It remains to be seen whether this rise will translate into higher sales prices.

Based on last month’s sales total of 20, we currently have an overall inventory of homes sufficient to last 5.3 months (slightly lower than last month) — this is called the absorption rate. This is still a HUGE reduction from the absorption rate from May 2009, which stood at well over 8 months.

The number of homes in escrow is up by about 11% from last month. We think there are many real buyers out there who have been waiting for “a sign” to buy — we don’t know what that sign will be (there are likely to be many “signs”), but we feel it will likely come soon.

In fact, the percentage of homes in escrow has risen to 55% in the bottom price band (under $800,000). This indicates that Mill Valley’s low end market is becoming very competitive and that fact bodes well. In Novato, for example, we believe the bottom began to form in April 2009 when it’s low end market began to see escrow ratios over 50% (Novato’s entry level price band has since reached over 80% of homes in escrow in what has become a very tight market). Since then, Novato’s overall market has become increasingly hotter across all price bands. I believe if Mill Valley follows suit, we will see a marked increase in sales over the next few months, particularly if San Francisco firms begin providing bonuses again in the New Year. Remember, last year, there were no bonuses and as a result (at least in part), we had a flat-lining market for the first 5 months of the year.

[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.MillValley101.com]

San Rafael, California real estate sales were brisk in October 2009. We experienced 44 trades, up from 31 in September 2009. The entry level price band (under $600K) remains at hot, with 70% of home now in escrow, up from 64% last month. Meanwhile, the $600K to $800K price band (a mix of entry level and move-up homes) remains nearly the identical to last month (36% of these homes are in escrow).

It is no secret that our current real estate environment in San Rafael favors buyers, not only because of the state of the market, but also because of superior interest rates, FHA loan availability (allowing purchase loans up to $729,000 with 3.5% down), and a shifting mindset by both buyers (who are ready to pull the trigger) and sellers (who are ready to do what it takes to sell). Meanwhile, housing inventory for single family homes fell to 135 homes (from 154 last month).

As reported this Summer, San Rafael listing prices experienced a brief rise from March to June, but that trend has reversed and resumed its downward trajectory. By comparison, asking prices in Novato have been rising for several months, leading many to believe that the bottom has formed in Novato. It does not appear this transition has fully settled in San Rafael.

[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.SanRafael101.com]