Following Novato's lead, San Rafael's real estate market is gathering momentum at the low end as foreclosures and short sales drive the market. We are currently experiencing 31% pending ratio for homes priced at or below $600K. Although not as strong a market segment as Novato, I would still characterize it as competitive price band.
Importantly, San Rafael's bread and butter homes, priced between $600K and $800K continue selling at a rapid clip - 31% of these homes are in escrow (up 2% from January 2009). Low interest rates on conforming loans are helping many buyers in the lower price ranges attain home ownership. Meanwhile, rates for conforming jumbo loans are a bit higher and apparently not being embraced by buyers as the San Rafael housing market is flat above $1 million (see below chart). But, the $8K tax credit for first time home buyers should also help pull buyers into the fray as value priced properties come onto the market. Amazingly, we have 15 homes currently being marketed under $500,000 (there were just 5 last month), and another 16 under $600,000. Overall, the number of homes on the market remains relatively low, with 153 homes (up from 142 last month).
Because many inquiries come in regarding the distressed market, the chart below illustrates the number of and percentage of distressed sales so far in 2009.
[Click here for the chart and the rest of this article, courtesy of www.SanRafael101.com.]
Although February was a short and rainy month, Marin County, CA., still experienced a good number of sales. So far in March 2009. we are seeing increasing inventory similar to "normal" years (I hesitate to call 2009 a "normal" year in light of the current economic situation). Recent gains in the stock market are a welcome change. Interest rates are down to about 5% on conforming loans right now, which is great (that is more than 1 full point lower than this time last year). So, it seems the pump is primed. We'll see if the real estate market responds.
Obviously, the more stringent underwriting policies of lenders are stifling demand. Although word on the street is that at least one big lender has taken steps to loosen up underwriting practices. It is obvious to everybody who comes into contact with the Marin real estate market that home buyers are continuing to wait for the perceived bottom. This, despite the FACT that interest rates are as low as could be realistically expected and prices in many Marin communities and neighborhoods have receded to 2003 or 2004 price levels. As evidenced by frenzied investor activity in Novato, there is definite traction at the low end. And once prices stabilize at the low end, the rippling effect upwards will follow. An interesting note regarding distressed sales (e.g. REO or bank owned homes and short sales): so far in this market cycle these sales have been largely concentrated in San Rafael and Novato. The chart below illustrates the number of, and percentage of, Marin County's 2009 distressed sales. About 50% of the sales in Marin County so far this year have been in San Rafael and Novato. Of these, nearly 50% are distressed sales. In all other cities, the distressed component of the market is 17%. Call me for more information on this important trend.
Single Family Home Sales - January 1, 2009 to March 6, 2009
| Total | Distressed | % of Total | |
| Marin County | 142 | 46 | 32% |
| San Rafael & Novato | 73 | 34 | 47% |
| All Other Cities | 69 | 12 | 17% |
Source: BAREIS March 8, 2009 The chart below shows a 90-day rolling average of Mill Valley's new listings and absorbed listings (e.g., sales), comparing current numbers with those of last year. Note that the while the numbers for new listings are about the same, the number of absorbed listings is up again in 2009 over 2008. Like I said last month, while the wheels of the real estate market are sticking and squeaking, they have not fallen off - although sellers are advised to wear seat belts. If you would like to review a similar chart for any other town or city in Marin or San Francisco, please let me know.
Inventory is up to 688 single family homes for sale (we had about 583 last month) in the Highway 101 corridor (this number excludes Western Marin inventory and condos). Open houses this past Sunday (a sunny and beautiful afternoon here) were swamped, with 26 groups filing through my listing in South Gate at Hamilton Field (and by the way, if you know anyone interested in an Atrium Eichler on an amazing lot, or a horse lover interested in a rarely available Baywood Canyon Estates home in Fairfax, have them call me). I also spoke with an agent who had 50 groups come through her $2 million plus listing. There is definitely a sense that with a little positive media and some further anecdotal evidence (and actual closings) that buyers are jumping because they believe the bottom is here or near, the market will surge with pent up demand. Certainly, well outfitted homes in great locations are selling promptly.
For a detailed executive summary providing statistics and trends relating to the Marin real estate market (or any specific zip code), please call me any time (I am Kyle Frazier, Marin Realtor & CRS, Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate) at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@NorthBayRE.com . It is always my pleasure to be of service.
There are many reasons to love Marin County, CA. -- its great schools is just one. If you have ever wondered if there is life outside of San Francisco, we can assure you -- there is. We are just a short hop across the Golden Gate Bridge. The commute is quick and short. There is no bridge related traffic coming into San Francisco from Marin, unlike commuting over the Bay Bridge from Oakland and the East Bay. Give me a call for packet of information. It is my pleasure to be of service.
The chart below illustrates the number of, and percentage of, 2009 distressed sales (e.g., REO--a.k.a. bank owned homes and short sales) in Marin Ca.
|
SFH Sales - January 1 - March 6, 2009 |
||||||
|
Total |
Distressed |
% of Total |
||||
|
Marin County |
142 |
46 |
32% |
|||
|
San Rafael & Novato |
73 |
34 |
47% |
|||
|
All Other Cities |
69 |
12 |
17% |
|||
|
Source: BAREIS March 8, 2009 |
Take away from this chart is YTD 50% of the sales in Marin County have been in San Rafael and Novato. Of these San Rafael and Novato sales nearly 50% are distressed sales. In all other cities the distressedcomponent of the market is 17%. If you are thinking of buying or selling in Novato or San Rafael, be sure you carefully square-up who you hire to represent you and what your timeline and expectations are.
If you have any questions about process or strategy, please feel free to call me -- Kyle Frazier, CRS, Morgan Lane Real Estate -- (415) 350-9440. It is always my pleasure to be of service.
After a lengthy period of overcast skies and a good deal of rain, the sun has returned to our happy peninsula, just in time for daylight savings. Never-mind that just like January 2009, February 2009 gave rise to just 2 home sales in Belvedere and Tiburon combined; sunshine, recently improving numbers in the stock market (considered by some a leading indicator), and pent-up buyer demand just might be the right recipe for increased sales as Spring sets in. Certainly, some nice inventory has found its way to market over the past few weeks, including 9 homes over the past week (among these are a couple of highly desirable Belvedere Lagoon properties).
It will be interesting to see how the year unfolds because many of the homes that were taken off the market during November and December 2008 will likely be re-listed with adjusted prices (as noted last month, there 35 homes withdrawn or expired in the last 2 months of 2008). In light of the startling numbers relating to Days on Market and final sales price, sellers are well advised to price their homes aggressively (if you would like a chart depicting list price to sales price ratios based on number of days on the market so far this year, please contact me -- again, the numbers are startling).
I note also that the only 2 homes are priced under $1 million in Tiburon and/or Belvedere--those kinds of deals don't last very long. Tiburon has well over a dozen homes available under $2 million. Below is a chart with up to date figures relating to the number of homes on the market in Tiburon and Belvedere, along with the number of homes currently in escrow. The market is pretty flat.
Price Range
Total Homes
In Escrow
up to $2 million
28
21%
$2 million to $3 million
27
4%
$3 million to $5 million
19
21%
$5 million to $10 million
16
13%
$10 million and up
7
14%
As noted above, there were just 2 sales last month (one of which involved my company, Morgan Lane Marin). One was an approximately ,1270 sq. ft. home in Tiburon that traded for $770,000. The other was a view home in Tiburon that closed for $2.1 million (a 5 bedroom, 4.5 bath home, with about 2,700 sq. ft.). Stay tuned for next month's installment as it will intriguing to see how the coming month plays out.
If you have any other questions or a detailed market analysis of your home's current market value, please call me at (415) 350-9440. It is always my pleasure to be of service.
p.s. I know of several properties that are not being formally marketed on the MLS, so please call me to see if any of these may meet your needs.
 |
|
|
Marin County, Ca. sits just north of San Francisco and features some of the best cities in the Bay Area. Call on me with any of your real estate needs. It is my pleasure to be of service.
ActiveRain Corp. is not responsible for the accuracy of the site's content (which is written by members of the ActiveRain Real Estate Network) and does not endorse the views of the real estate agents, mortgage brokers, and others listed here.
Powered by the ActiveRain Real Estate Network
© 2009 ActiveRain Corp. All Rights Reserved
