DOG PARKS IN MARIN - Bayfront Park, Sycamore Avenue east of Camino Alto, Mill Valley. - Canine Commons, Doherty Drive east of Magnolia Avenue, Larkspur. - Field of Dogs, Civic Center Drive - O'Hair Park, Novato Boulevard just west of San Marin Drive, Novato. - Red Hill Community Park, between Shaw Drive and Sunny Hills Drive, San Anselmo (pending completion). - Remington Park, Ebbtide Avenue at Bridgeway in Sausalito.
at Armory Drive and the lagoon, San Rafael.
The year 2009 in Marin County, California has been a roller coaster ride for real estate sellers, buyers, and agents. To the extent that trends can be identified, they have proven particularly ethereal and fleeting.
Nonetheless, it does appear that the one market sector that has shaken out this year is the entry level single family home market. Prices appear to have hit bottom in Novato's (Northern Marin) sub-$500K sector. Seemingly, most agents agree that to find a "livable" home in a good neighborhood is very difficult to find under $500K. Inventory in that price band is slim and quickly put into contract.
The below table examines the first 3 quarters of this year as compared to 2007 & 2008. While volume, total sales, and prices are down significantly from 2007, volume and total sales are up from 2008 (although prices are down incrementally in this price band).
Note that this table does not include a lot of the low end Novato inventory discussed above. Importantly, this exclusion helps to show that a bottom is forming outside of Novato's entry level price band.
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Marin County ($500K to $1 million) |
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Jan. – Sept. 2007 |
Jan. – Sept. 2008 |
% Change |
Jan. – Sept. 2009 |
% Change |
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Volume |
$559,167,393 |
$415,321,251 |
-25.73% |
$465,783,695 |
12.15% |
|
Homes Sold |
764 |
562 |
-26.44% |
635 |
12.99% |
|
Avg. Days on Market |
68 |
84 |
23.53% |
105 |
25% |
|
Median Price |
$790,000 |
$740,000 |
-6.33% |
$726,000 |
-1.89% |
|
Average Price |
$784,000 |
$739,000 |
-5.77% |
$733,000 |
-.81% |
By: Kyle Frazier, CRS, CLHMS, Broker Associate | Christie's Great Estates - Morgan Lane International Realtors | Kentfield, CA. (415) 350-9440.
In our New Economy, real buyers have become less numerous and have placed increased emphasis on prestige locations, views, lifestyle amenities (usable yards, proximity to clubs/shopping, etc.), schools, and sensible scale. As reported all year, the luxury segment remains weighted towards homes priced under $3 million — although 4 homes priced over $4 million sold in October 2009. First and foremost, the economy must give reason for optimism and the stock market must continue to win back gains lost over the past year. Once some of those gains are recaptured, affluent buyers will feel more comfortable with major purchases again. Meanwhile, the media has been placing a positive spin on economic news coverage, which will hopefully result in a positive feedback loop. For example, a story run in the A.P. last week noted that economic forecasters are predicting that 2010 will be the first year since 2005 for housing to contribute to the growth of the U.S. economy (based on a survey by the National Association for Business Economics). According to that organization, home prices are expected to rise 2 percent next year and over 80 percent of economists surveyed by the NABE think the recession is over and recovery has begun. In addition, the San Francisco Chronicle ran a story last week regarding how low interest rates have spurred a modest increase in Bay Area home sales in September. Also concurring with the expectation of growth is the Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann, who predicts that sales of existing homes will rise 11 percent in 2010, with sales of new homes climbing 21 percent. For a detailed snapshot of current national trends from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing, click HERE. And if you would like a hyper-local report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, call me at (415) 350-9440. [Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.ImagineMarin.com.]
Over the past year, my reports have continually pointed to simple supply and demand indicators in an effort to define a “normal” Marin County real estate market. As noted a year ago, “recovery to a normal market will require stability in financial markets, a strong local employment trend, affordable interest rates and strengthening consumer confidence.” Reflecting on the past twelve months, Marin County real estate markets experienced the most difficult and unpredictable dynamics. The financial markets imploded, unemployment trends accelerated and consumer confidence was shattered. And while we benefit from historically low interest rates, credit requirements, approval guidelines, and loan to value ratios are as stringent as in recent memory. YTD Sep ’09 v YTD Sep ‘08 Jan 1 – Sep 30, ‘09 $500K - $1M $1 Million and Up $1 - $3 Million $3 Million + Volume +12.15% -50.23% -48.05% -56.64% Units Sold +12.99% -47.18% -46.47% -53.62% Average Price -0.81% -5.82% -2.95% -6.51% Median Price -1.89% -2.70% -1.06% -21.71% Days on Market +25.00% +43.66% +49.25% +12.00% The average number of days on market has trended over 100 days for 2009. This trend is indicative of sellers’ “hoping” to get a specific price for their home — these hopes are often based on what they paid for it or what they “need” to sell it for in order to maintain lifestyle choices.The good news is that over 1,100 single family homes have sold in Marin County in the first nine months of 2009. Successful sellers have processed market dynamics, followed their real estate advisors recommendations and successfully made housing decisions to support their lifestyle. Buyers continue to seek opportunity and will write offers only on the homes that have balanced the best pricing in relation to the relevant and recent neighborhood comparables.
Over 70% of the 1,100 single family homes sold in 2009 closed for under $1 million. Approximately 50% of these 1,100 homes closed in San Rafael or Novato. The velocity of the market under $1 million and in San Rafael and Novato may be the only growth sector in Marin County real estate. The chart below illustrates summary market trends by price point.
The good new is that it seems the media has turned a corner on its reporting of the U.S. and worldwide economies, as well as the housing market. Positive press coverage has permeated all forms of media and is certain to change the tide, although it will take time. Significantly, San Francisco agents are reporting a significant surge in sales and prices. We know from past experience, that once San Francisco recovers, surrounding communities recover in a geo-concentrically expanding fashion.
Yet, the Mill Valley, CA. real estate market continues to limp along, offering hope of recovery, but not fully reaching the plateau (or nadir, as it were). Pardon the inevitable mixed metaphors, but it seems the real estate market is like an elite athlete with an ankle sprain, constantly at risk of further injury or re-aggravation. Our low expectations for September were fulfilled as we had just 21 home sales — same as in July and August 2009.
While it seemed that prices had gathered traction after a slippery first half of the year, last month’s price per square foot for homes sold dipped to $529 — note that the graph below tracks asking prices and the average price per square foot for homes on the market is holding steady at about $615. We have been waiting to see whether this flattening out of asking prices would carry over into the sales prices of homes trading this Fall and Winter and it appears the answer in “no.”
[Click HERE for the rest of this article, courtesy ofwww.MillValley101.com.]
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Marin County, Ca. sits just north of San Francisco and features some of the best cities in the Bay Area. Call on me with any of your real estate needs. It is my pleasure to be of service.
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