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Kyle Frazier, CRS & Marin CA Realtor

Tiburon & Belvedere CA Real Estate Market Report (October 2009 Home Sales Update)

Belvedere and Tiburon sit on the Tiburon Peninsula and associated islands, just across a narrow portion of the San Francisco Bay and the Golden Gate Bridge. Real estate is expensive. Several homes each year sell for $5 million and up. As 2009 began to unwind, the luxury sector was flat for obvious reasons and it seemed as though the highly valued luxury homes with jetliner views and royal class appointments would never sell again — that has changed. For three months straight we have experienced sales above the $5 million mark.

Nonetheless, sales and activity remain choppy. There are currently 109 listings in the 94920 zip code, which covers Tiburon and Belvedere (down 4 from last month). Twenty-one of these properties are priced over $5 million. In the lower price segments, activity is tepid. There were just 6 sales in September 2009 — 4 of these homes were priced under $1 million. Meanwhile, there are currently 30 properties listed for sale under $2 million.

[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.NorthBayRE.com.]

San Rafael, CA Real Estate (October 2009)

San Rafael, California’s real estate market continues leaning heavily on foreclosures and short sales for volume. The entry level price band (under $600K) remains at a slow boil with 64% of home are now in escrow, same as last month. Meanwhile, the $600K to $800K price band (a mix of entry level and move-up homes) rose to 38% of homes in escrow from 31% in September 2009).

It is no secret that our current real estate environment favors buyers, not only because of the state of the market (e.g., prices back down to 2003 levels in many cases), but also because of superior interest rates, FHA loan availability (allowing purchase loans up to $729,000 with 3.5% down), and a shifting mindset by both buyers (who are ready to pull the trigger) and sellers (who are ready to do what it takes to sell).

Housing inventory for single family homes in San Rafael fell to 154 homes (from 169 last month). It is interesting to note that while San Rafael’s inventory has risen and its percentage of homes in escrow has dropped, Novato (the next city north) has experienced the opposite. In fact, in the move up market, Novato sales rates eclipse San Rafael’s by a long-shot.

As reported this Summer, San Rafael listing prices experienced a brief rise, but that trend has reversed and resumed its downward trajectory. By comparison, asking prices in Novato have been rising for several months, leading many to believe that the bottom has formed in Novato. It does not appear this phenomenon is being replicated in San Rafael.

[Click HERE for the rest of this report, courtesy of www.SanRafael101.com.]

Novato, California (Real Estate Market Update -- October 2009)

“Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

Entering into the dormancy season for Marin County real estate, it appears that certain “hotspots” remain — Novato is one of them. In September 2009, 35 Novato homes sold, compared with 38 sales in August 2009. The Novato real estate market derives its strength from entry level home sales. The number of homes actively listed in Novato remains very low compared with the rest of Marin (and the percentage of homes in escrow is much higher than the rest of Marin) because of exceptional demand based on affordability and the ongoing fantastically low interest rates.

While the average sales price of Novato homes rose in August to a remarkable $713,440 (based in large part to the makeup of sales), that number fell back to Earth in September — $646,389. Even so, the psychological impact on buyers waiting for bottom to hit has begun to register. Anecdotally, I can attest that many buyers are looking at the inventory of homes in Novato and acknowledging that prices in the lower price bands are level and that it is increasingly difficult to identify “turnkey” homes under $525,000 — $550,000.

[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.Novato101.com.]

Paradise Foods Set to Open (Novato, California)

Southern Novato will soon benefit from another grocery store — the highly anticipated Paradise Foods is scheduled to open next week, according to the Marin IJ. I drive by the site regularly and sure enough it is looking good. The entire shopping center (on Ignacio, just west of HWY 101), which lost its anchor tenant Safeway last year (Safeway opened its mega-store across HWY 101 at Hamilton Center — it is the best Safeway in Marin, by all accounts), is looking great.

Below is the article from the IJ — note the shameless self promotion near the bottom of the article ….

Paradise Foods, Novato

Paradise Foods, Novato

How to Lose Your Net (Impact of Overpricing in Mill Valley, California)

Barring special circumstances, there is generally nothing more important to sellers than the net amount of funds they retain when their home is sold. As every real estate professional will attest, pricing correctly for the market at the outset of the listing period is far and away the most important factor in the sales process — as they say, "price conquers all buyer objections."

Each year in the real estate industry, numerous books are written, classes are taught, and sermons are delivered on the topic of pricing. Managers implore their agents to advise their clients about the dangers of over-pricing and agents natter on amongst themselves about the importance of this element of the home sales process.

Nonetheless, homes come on the market that are overpriced based on recent market data. And this injures not just the sellers, who end up netting less on the sale of their home, but it collaterally hurts the listing agent’s reputation, the neighborhood’s reputation, and the morale of buyers and sellers (who are understandably frustrated by incorrect pricing, although for different reasons).

The image below is a snapshot of just how big a hit sellers take when they price incorrectly in the Mill Valley, California real estate market for homes between $1 million and $2 million (based on sales from January 1, 2009 to October 7, 2009).

For example, if a home sells within the first 30-days, those sellers received an average of ~97% of list price. I think all would agree that is a great result! At the other end of the spectrum, homes sitting on the market for over 120-days, sold for 82% of list price. Those are startling figures.

Let’s do a touchstone example with easy math — we have a house that I estimate should sell for about $1 million.

  • Option 1: The sellers go with my suggested list price of $1 million — because it is priced approprately, it sells after the 1st open house for $997,000 (e.g., 97%).
  • Option 2: The sellers decide to list it at $1.1 million (to test the market and/or to allow "wiggle room" in negotiations) and it takes 5 months to sell — eventually, it sells for $902,000 (e.g., 82% of list price).

The takeaway:

By pricing correctly at outset, not only do the sellers net $95,000 more for the sale of their home, but they also avoid the massive inconvenience of prolonged marketing (open houses, showings, and general anxiety — and you can’t put a price on that).

By: Kyle Frazier, CRS (Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate). Kyle is a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist and is available for counselling and selling services in Marin County, California.