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Keith Reilly

Months Supply of Inventory and Why It's Important

12-03-08
Keith Reilly

When selling a home, it is important for one to understand the factors affecting how long it will take for that particular property to sell. One of the factors that can affect the sale is whats called the month’s supply of inventory or MSI for short. The MSI is a calculation that expresses how long it will take for all the homes (inventory) in a particular market to be sold. This calculation is based on the amount of homes currently on the market and the rate at which how quickly these homes are selling. For those of you mathematically inclined, the calculation is as follows:

The number of properties For Sale (FS) during the month (that is, the property was Active at least one day during the month) minus the number of properties that went Under Contract (UC) during the month minus the number of properties that Expired (X) during the month, divided by the number or properties that went Under Contract (UC) during the month:

MSI = (FS – UC – X) / UC

Example:

At the end of September in Bucks County their were 2,791 homes currently on the market with 252 homes under contract. 2,791/252 = 11.08

What this says is that it will take 11 months for the inventory in Bucks County to be sold.

In practical terms, the higher the MSI the more of a Buyer’s Market there is. There are many more homes to choose from and home sellers will compete with each other, thus driving down prices. If the MSI is lower, then there is less inventory on the market which gives home sellers the advantage. For instance, when the market was a Seller’s Market in 2005, the National Association of Realtors quoted that the MSI was about 4.6. Compare that to the current Buyer’s Market MSI in Bucks County at 11. Understanding the MSI is important because it helps to give real estate consumers a clear picture of what the market is doing and what they can expect when buying or selling a home. By looking at the graph above, you can clearly see that today’s market is in fact a Buyer’s Market and consumers need to set their expectations accordingly.

-Thanks!

www.buckscountyrealestate.wordpress.com

Flipping Houses: The Down & Dirty

11-26-08
Keith Reilly

So you wanna try flipping houses? I’ll give you some pure basics to get you started.

1. Locate an undervalued home for sale that is structurally sound but requires some pretty extensive cosmetic work. When I say cosmetics I mean rehabbing the siding, windows, kitchen, bathrooms, carpets, appliances and painting the walls. To find an undervalued home, I would recommend using a Realtor.

2. Once you’ve found your target home, you are going to need financing. One source of funding that rehabbers use are “hard money lenders”. These types of loans are secured by the value of the house you are going to flip and are usually issued by private investors. Talk to your Realtor about finding hard money lenders or check with your local real estate investing group. For those of you from Bucks County, the local investing group would be DIG (www.digonline.org).

3. Ok, you’ve found the home and got the financing. Now is time for the number crunching. First determine your After Rehab Value or ARV. This is the value of the property once you’ve finished all the cosmetic work. This can be determined by your Realtor. Here is the basic format for determining your bottom line and what your offer should be for you to make a minimum of $10,000 cash on the flip (The Golden Rule).

ARV minus:

  • Repair Costs
  • Holding Costs (monthly loan charges)
  • Sales commission (5%-6% of ARV)
  • Closing Costs ( transfer taxes on the buy and the sell, 1% for each in Bucks County)
  • Hard Money Costs (points-probably around 3%-5% of the loan)
  • PROFIT ($10,000 MINIMUM!)

Now, what’s left is what your offer is going to be. Simple right? Again, for more details please consult a real estate professional.

BUCKS COUNTY EXAMPLE

Your average home in Falls Twp is selling for around $230,000; so we’ll make that our ARV.

ARV $230,000 minus:

  • Repair costs $20,000
  • Holding costs $6,000 (takes three months to flip and sell)
  • Commission $11,500 (5% commission on the sale)
  • Closing Costs $4,000 (transfer taxes of 1% on the buy and then on the sell, estimated)
  • Hard Money Costs $5,000 ( 5 points estimated)
  • PROFIT $10,000 MINIMUM

EQUALS YOUR OFFER $173,500

Now, can you find houses selling for $173,000 in Falls Twp? You bet. I’d love to show them to you!

-Keith Reilly

www.BucksCountyRealEstate.wordpress.com